Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Harry Newton
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9:00
AM EST, Wednesday, May 27, 2009. If you print
money -- lots of it -- you will inflate markets. That's one reason stocks have
boomed 39% (S&P) since March 6. This boom -- the fastest in the history
of the world -- is putting huge pressure on money managers who've stayed out.
And, as they get in, they may fuel more boom.
Stockmarkets
are thus removed from the economic realities of a lousy economy. To join the
stockmarket to the economy is to miss the opportunity. This thinking scares
me. Puts me in doubt. And when in doubt, I'm out. But I've been wrong since
March.
The
big fear gong forward is inflation. Money printing. Deficits. I'm afraid of
inflation. Everyone is. Everyone is aware of it. And everyone is seeking ways
to protect themselves. That doesn't include treasurys. It includes:
+
Gold. (See below).
+ Silver.
+ Oil.
+ U.S. stocks
+ Asian stocks.
+ Commodities, like copper.
No one has The
Answer. Except that cash, long-term, is not the answer.
I recommend you
watch this Bloomberg interview with Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom
and Doom Report. Click
here. Faber says the U.S. will go into hyperinflation. Not as high
as Zimbabwe, "but close to it."
Here's gold. The
time to buy was back in 2001. Today? I'm dubious.

How
we saved our banks. This book is now out, and
deserves reading. I just ordered it.

The story of the
book itself is fascinating. This comes from Barry Ritholtz, the author, who
also writes the The Big Picture blog.
Long story short:
After Bill Fleckensteins GREENSPANS BUBBLES was published,
McGraw Hill asked him to do a follow up to that book.
He wisely said
no.
However, Bill
suggested they contact me.
Which they did.
I turned the publisher down (several times). Who has time to write a book?
Besides, I did not want to do a fast, rush-to-judgment type of thing. But
they were tenacious in their pursuit, and I eventually succumbed to their
flattery on my terms, however, including having final edit on the manuscript.
(This becomes important later on, as you will soon see).
Because of the
way events played out, I ended up writing this beast three separate times.
Literally: Bailout Nation was written as 3 complete books over 18 months.
The first version
was a history of bailouts. I started playing with the idea of this back in
October 2007. (We were short a lot of financial names then). By the Summer
2008, I had put together a broad overview covering the early 19th century,
the history of the Fed, and a meaty arc from Lockheed (1971) to Bear Stearns
(March 2008). It was a fairly pedestrian historical approach.
Around the time
it was due (near Labor Day 2008), something funky was in the air . . . you
could smell the leading edge of the approaching shitstorm. By the end of August
2008, I convinced the publisher to extend the deadline a few weeks.
Good thing I
did . . . Boom! Fannie Mae blew up. Then Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, AIG,
Citigroup, Bank of America. Soon Merrill was on the ropes, followed by Morgan
Stanley, Goldman Sachs, GM and GE. All hell was breaking loose. Well, I thought,
at least the book will be more interesting. The expanded version of the manuscript,
with greater emphasis on the latter part of 2008, was finished in December
08.
Or so I thought.
After I handed
the book into the publisher (McGraw Hill), they let me know they had problems
with my assessment of the Ratings Agencies. They were unhappy with my calling
them Pimps & Hos, or describing their business model of rating
junk bonds as AAA for big fees as Payola. (What else would you
call it?)
Not coincidentally,
McGraw Hill owns of the largest Rating Agencies, Standard & Poors.
My compromise
was to change the tone namely, to remove the reference to Pimps. However,
in its place I was going to add publicly available data and congressional
testimony, more detailed analysis, and quotations from experts. When it was
finished, I found the revised section to be less vitriolic but far
more devastating to S&P. They (along with fellow rating agencies Moodys
and Fitchs) were key enablers to the entire crisis. There were many
other guilty parties, but I simply could not under-emphasize the ratings agencies.
When McGH rejected
it again, I exercised my right to buy the manuscript back from them in January
2009 (I returned the advance). Numerous publishers were interested, but I
went with Wiley they have a great deal of experience publishing business/investing
related books, and as a publisher, had no conflicts of interest that would
interfere with telling the full story.
The third version
was the charm.
By now, the
amount of bailout money going to mismanaged companies, reckless speculators,
and incompetent corporate executives had skyrocketed to 14 trillion dollars.
This was infuriating to anyone paying attention.
Astonishing
things happened as the book progresses. The more I researched and wrote, the
more it was apparent we were witnessing the greatest heist ever made.
By the last section of the book, historys biggest transfer of wealth
from the taxpayer to the Banksters was taking place. Trillions
were being shifted from the responsible to the reckless, from the prudent
to the incompetent. It was infuriating and you will see as the
book progresses my initial academic tone gets replaced with greater snark
and anger.
I not only had
my ending, I had a new cause exposing those who caused this mess, be
they Democrat or Republican, Corporate CEO or derivatives trader.
I hope the end
result is something that will inform and illuminate, while entertaining you
along the way . . .
You can pick up
a copy of Bailout Nation at Amazon
for $16.47. There's no Kindle edition.
New
York real estate rents drop. A recent deal:
A prime building two years ago was renting at $110 a square foot a year. It
just rented space at $45. That's a huge 60% drop. It gets worse. The $45 deal
included six months of free rent, and $75 per square foot of tenant improvements.
The $45 was a gross lease. That means the landlord pays the taxes and operating
expenses. If you figure all that, spread it over 10 years, you effectively have
a deal where the landlord is actually putting less than $5 a square foot into
his pocket.
Why
do such a lousy deal? Because the deal pays the landlord's expenses. It allows
him to hold the building for a little longer, maybe. We don't know what the
interest payments are.
The
greatest computing bargain in the history of the world. This
is my country desk. Figure $250 a Samsung monitor, and $130 for two ViBook
USB drivers. Hence the desk's electronics total $760. The wooden 10" shelves
cost whatever your local carpenter charges.

One little laptop,
the Lenovo ThinkPad X61 (and now the Lenovo ThinkPad X200) drives its own screen
and these three external ones.

This gadget called
a ViBook drives two of the external monitors. Windows drives the one in the
middle. Email on one screen. A browser on another. An Excel spreadsheet on another.
Stocks on yet another. Slide anything to anywhere. You get the idea. You can
pick two of these ViBooks up from Amazon
for $129 each. You need one ViBook for each screen you want to drive.
I cannot recommend a gadget more highly.
French
Tennis Open 2009 TV Schedule -- US broadcast times
Wednesday,
May 27
5:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Early Rounds - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
12:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Early Rounds - ESPN2 + ESPN2 HD-
LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Thursday,
May 28
5:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Early Rounds - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
12:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Early Rounds - ESPN2 + ESPN2 HD
- LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Friday,
May 29
5:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Early Rounds - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
12:00 PM -6:30 PM: French Open Early Rounds - ESPN2 + ESPN2 HD
- LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Saturday,
May 30
5:00 am - 1:30 PM: French Open Early Rounds - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
1:30 PM - 4:30 PM: French Open Early Rounds - NBC - LIVE
4:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Sunday,
May 31
5:00 am - 3:00 PM: French Open Early Rounds - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
3:00 PM - 6:00 PM: French Open Early Rounds - NBC - tape
6:00 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Monday,
June 1 - RD. of 16
5:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Round of 16 - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
12:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Round of 16 - ESPN2 + ESPN2 HD
- LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Tuesday,
June 2 - QUARTERS
8:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Quarterfinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - LIVE
12:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Quarterfinals - ESPN2 + ESPN2 HD
- LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Wednesday,
June 3 - QUARTERS
8:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Quarterfinals - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
12:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Men’s Quarterfinals - ESPN2 +
ESPN2 HD - LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Thursday,
June 4 - SEMIS
5:00 am - 8:00 AM: French Open Men’s Doubles Semifinals - TENNIS
CHANNEL (HD) - LIVE
8:00 am - 1:00 PM: French Open Women’s Semifinals - ESPN2 + ESPN2
HD - LIVE
1:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Women’s Semifinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Friday,
June 5: - SEMIS
5:00 am - 10:00 AM: French Open Women’s Semifinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
10:00 am - 1:00 PM: French Open Men’s Semifinals - NBC -
LIVE
4:00 PM - 11:00 PM: French Open Men’s Semifinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
11:00 PM - 6:00 AM: French Open Men’s Semifinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Saturday,
June 6: - FINAL
9:00 am - 12:00 PM: Women’s FINAL - NBC - LIVE
Sunday,
June 7: FINAL
9:00 am - 2:00 PM: Men’s FINAL - NBC -
LIVE
I'm late this
morning. I'll make up the jokes tomorrow. I'm having trouble with the configuration
on this new laptop.

This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing
the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting.
If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting
you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's business school
tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.
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