Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Harry Newton
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Columns
9:00
AM EST, Friday, May 29, 2009. Thanks for all
the nice words about Michael.
This
is a good idea.
From today's Bloomberg:
May 28 (Bloomberg)
-- David Einhorn, the hedge-fund manager who bet against Lehman Brothers Holdings
Inc. four months before the firm collapsed, is shorting Moodys Corp.,
whose flawed ratings on asset-backed debt helped fuel the credit crisis.
Even Moodys
largest shareholder, Warren Buffett, has said he doesnt believe in using
ratings, Einhorn, 40, said in a speech last night at the Ira W. Sohn
Investment Research Conference in New York. We are short Moodys.
Moodys,
whose founder created credit ratings in 1909, reported a 25 percent profit
drop last month as the recession sapped demand for debt grades. Rating companies
have been criticized by the European Union, members of the U.S. Congress and
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for ignoring conflicts of interest
and risks that contributed to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Einhorn, who
runs New York-based Greenlight Capital Inc., said regulators could improve
the stability of financial markets by eliminating the formal rating system.
He titled his speech The Curse of the AAA.
Moodys,
which climbed 40 percent on the New York Stock Exchange this year before today,
fell $1.26, or 4.5 percent, to $26.89 in composite trading at 4:01 p.m. Investors
who sell short borrow shares with the expectation that they can be repurchased
at a lower price to pay back the loan.
Vital
Source
Moodys
spokesman Anthony Mirenda said the companys research and credit opinions
play an important role in the markets. Moodys opinions
are a vital source of information and continue to be widely sought by market
participants of all types, Mirenda said in an interview.
The problem
is not that ratings are fundamentally flawed, but rather that of a misalignment
of incentives, said Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co.,
an independent ratings firm in Haverford, Pennsylvania. The issuer-pay
model discourages the publishing of timely accurate ratings. Whats needed
is a switch to an investor-pay model whereby the rating firm is punished with
a loss of revenue if it does not provide accurate ratings.
Greenlight,
which Einhorn started in 1996, manages about $5.1 billion in assets. The firms
Greenlight Capital LP fund gained 4.4 percent in the first quarter, after
losing 23 percent last year. Greenlight has returned an annual average of
20.8 percent from its Greenlight Capital LP fund since its inception.
Belief in
Brand
The truth
is that nobody I know buys or uses Moodys credit ratings because they
believe in the brand, Einhorn said. They use it because its
part of a government-created oligopoly and often because they are required
to by law.
Buffett, the
chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said earlier
this month that assigning ratings to debt and other securities is still
a good business. Berkshire owns about 20 percent of Moodys shares.
Still, Buffett
said he doesnt rely on the major credit rating companies to make his
own investment decisions.
We do
not think the people of Moodys, Standard & Poors, Fitch or
anyplace else should be telling us the credit rating of a company, Buffett
said May 2 when Berkshire had its annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska. We
dont believe in outsourcing investment decisions.
Einhorn said
opinions like that undermine the rating companies business models.
If your
product is a stamp of approval where your highest rating is a curse to those
that receive it and its shunned by most who are supposed to use it,
you have problems, he said.
Einhorn criticized
Lehmans accounting during a speech at last years conference. Four
months later, Lehman filed the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Einhorn
said Lehman hadnt disclosed its holdings of collateralized debt obligations
properly and wasnt valuing its commercial mortgage-related assets based
on market prices.
Last nights
conference raised $5 million for cancer research, compared with about $3 million
last year.
David
Swensen is not entirely sanguine. He earned 16% a year for Yale for
eons. Recent markets have taken their toll. Going forward, he's cautious. He
likes reading. He recommends Charles Ellis. He likes TIPS and energy markets.
He doesn't like most professional managers -- too many conflicts. "Size
is the biggest enemy of performance." Listen to a seriously interesting
tape of him being interviewed by Consuelo Mack. Click here.
Talk
about price reductions! When prices fall, we have deflation. The
economists don't like it because it messes with their nice statistics, dropping
GDP numbers. They show we're getting poorer. Items:
+ A few weeks
ago, the Wall Street Journal told me a one-year renewal for my subscription
would $349. No reductions for beautiful people (like me). Yesterday they called
and said I could have the Journal and full access to to WSJ.com for $99 a
year. I hear everyone else is being offered the $99 price also. That's a 70%
price reduction. Funny thing, now I get it again, I don't find much of interest
to read.
+ From Bloombergs
this morning: Starbucks Corp., the worlds largest coffee-shop operator,
is pushing some U.S. landlords for as much as a 25 percent reduction in lease
rates, taking advantage of a declining real estate market to save on rent.
Personally, I'm surprised they only want 25% reduction. I see rents down as
much as 50%. Landlords don't want empty stores, and are caving.
+ If you have
any expensive subscriptions, cancel them. They'll come back with a cheaper
rate, or you can read it online, or, most likely, you don't need it anyway
Lastest
tips on buying retail:
+
Sign up for the store's credit card.
+
Ask about upcoming promotions. Can they be applied to your sale, now?
+
Buy one online. Wait for the inevitable "20% off on your next purchase"
coupon.
Virus
alert: The message reads
Hello!
We were not
able to deliver postal package you sent on the 14th of May in time because
the recipients address is not correct.
Please print out the invoice copy attached and collect the package at our
office.
Your United
Parcel Service of America
Attached is a
zip file which has a virus. The sender is "United Parcel Service of America
[z50yrgt3@yahoo.com]." Do not open the attached zip file. Delete the message
instantly, if not sooner.
Adam
Neff is only 7 years old. He lives in
Cincinnati. He's the face of American tennis 10 years from now. Watch him playing
on YouTube and
marvel. He's only 4' 4". You can't get him off the court.
French
Tennis Open 2009 TV Schedule -- US broadcast times
Friday,
May 29
5:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Early Rounds - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
12:00 PM -6:30 PM: French Open Early Rounds - ESPN2 + ESPN2 HD
- LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Saturday,
May 30
5:00 am - 1:30 PM: French Open Early Rounds - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
1:30 PM - 4:30 PM: French Open Early Rounds - NBC - LIVE
4:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Sunday,
May 31
5:00 am - 3:00 PM: French Open Early Rounds - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
3:00 PM - 6:00 PM: French Open Early Rounds - NBC - tape
6:00 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Monday,
June 1 - RD. of 16
5:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Round of 16 - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
12:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Round of 16 - ESPN2 + ESPN2 HD
- LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Tuesday,
June 2 - QUARTERS
8:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Quarterfinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - LIVE
12:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Quarterfinals - ESPN2 + ESPN2 HD
- LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Wednesday,
June 3 - QUARTERS
8:00 am - 12:00 PM: French Open Quarterfinals - TENNIS CHANNEL (HD)
- LIVE
12:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Men’s Quarterfinals - ESPN2 +
ESPN2 HD - LIVE and tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Thursday,
June 4 - SEMIS
5:00 am - 8:00 AM: French Open Men’s Doubles Semifinals - TENNIS
CHANNEL (HD) - LIVE
8:00 am - 1:00 PM: French Open Women’s Semifinals - ESPN2 + ESPN2
HD - LIVE
1:00 PM - 6:30 PM: French Open Women’s Semifinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
6:30 PM - 5:00 AM: French Open “Tonight” show - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Friday,
June 5: - SEMIS
5:00 am - 10:00 AM: French Open Women’s Semifinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
10:00 am - 1:00 PM: French Open Men’s Semifinals - NBC -
LIVE
4:00 PM - 11:00 PM: French Open Men’s Semifinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
11:00 PM - 6:00 AM: French Open Men’s Semifinals - TENNIS CHANNEL
(HD) - tape
Saturday,
June 6: - FINAL
9:00 am - 12:00 PM: Women’s FINAL - NBC - LIVE
Sunday,
June 7: FINAL
9:00 am - 2:00 PM: Men’s FINAL - NBC -
LIVE
Technology
at its best -- from yesterday
(in case you missed it). A nice reader emails, "This has to be true. I
live here."
Police in Radnor, Pennsylvania, interrogated a suspect by placing a metal colander
on his head and connecting it with wires to a photocopy machine.
The message "He's
lying" was placed in the copier. The police pressed the Copy button each
time they thought the suspect wasn't telling the truth.
Believing the
"lie detector" was working, the suspect confessed.
Top
joke in Belgium
Why do ducks have webbed feet?
To stamp out fires.
Why do elephants
have flat feet?
To stamp out burning
ducks
Top
joke in Australia.
A doctor says to his patient, I have bad news and worse news.
Oh dear,
what's the bad news? asks the patient.
The doctor replies,
You only have 24 hours to live.
That's terrible,
said the patient. How can the news possibly be worse?
The doctor replies,
I've been trying to contact you since yesterday.
Top
joke in Cambridge, Mass.
Texan: Where are you from?
Harvard grad: I come from a place where we do not end our sentences with
prepositions.
Texan: Okay where are you from, jackass?
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing
the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting.
If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting
you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's business school
tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.
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