Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM EST, Tuesday, November 13, 2007: There
is no way to time the stockmarket. Only a fool would try. That said, I'm now
trying. I believe now is the time to go to cash. Now is NOT the
time to be heavily invested in equities (unless you're shorting or buying puts).
All the internal market statistics -- from stocks making new lows, to the depth
and breadth of the market, to indiscriminate fear-based selling, to breaking
through trendlines, to the lousy internal "technicals" of the market,
to weaknesses in every sector -- are pointing to a lousy upcoming (i.e. weak,
declining) stockmarket. These indications (for want of a better word) happened
before -- in 2000 and 2002.
weekly chart are instructive. I drew in the trendline. Notice how we've broken
This is the longer
picture. It could look ominous, depending on your bent. It sort of says ":
Enough for now."
Do not be fooled
by bear market bounces, which are often violent, and short-lived.
Having cash -- as I've advocated before -- is a good thing. It will allow us
to pounce on bargains. Just know: they're aren't yet here.
Patience is today's
brilliant new sales pitch. Dell
will sell you a computer or laptop without all the "demoware" and
"craplets" that so often gum up a new computer, often causing it to
lock right out of the box.
had this weird theory that computer companies now make more money on craplets
and demoware than they make selling the hardware. The PC world is that competitive.
I bet other companies will sell you a PC with Windows XP and without all the
craplets and demoware if you insist. And I bet they won't even charge extra.
this under Count Your Blessings.
the African country of Equatorial Guinea.
The country has lots of oil, 5000,000 people and is not a nice place to
visit, live or invest, unless you're God.
is the boss of Equatorial Guinea (a.k.a. God).
President Teodoro Obiang Nguema
From the BBC July
Guinea's "God" President Teodoro Obiang Nguema is serving a third
in the tiny west African state of Equatorial Guinea has hailed the nation's
leader as "the country's God". In a programme called Bidze-Nduan
(Bury the fire) which deals with "peace, tranquillity and the order reigning
in the country" the radio declared that President Teodoro Obiang Nguema
was "in permanent contact with the Almighty".
It said that
the president was "like God in heaven" who has "all power over
men and things".
The BBC's reporter
in Malabo, Rodrigo Angue Nguema, says a large proportion of the national population
listens to state radio and that there are no newspapers in the country.
won the 2002 presidential elections by almost 100% to serve a third, seven-year
decide to kill without anyone calling him to account and without going to
hell because it is God himself, with whom he is in permanent contact, and
who gives him this strength," a presidential aide announced on the show.
The radio show,
which claims to "inform and mobilise the masses on issues of national
interest", has warned against any attempt to disrupt the peace and order
which, it said, had reigned since President Obiang, 61, took power in a coup
23 years ago.
were made in a weekly programme presented by the presidential aide and broadcast
in Fang, the language used by the majority ethnic group, which makes up 80%
of the population of about 500,000.
From the BBC October
Talking Clock (Old but wonderful).
in 1968, Equatorial Guinea has been ruled by two men - from the same family
- who have been described by a variety of human rights organisations as among
the worst abusers of human rights in Africa.
In recent years
the former Spanish colony has become one of sub-Saharan Africa's biggest oil
Large oil and
gas deposits were discovered off Bioko in the mid-1990s and their exploitation
has driven spectacular growth. In 2004 Equatorial Guinea had the world's fastest-growing
But few people
have benefited from the oil riches and the country ranks near the bottom of
a UN human development index. ... The corruption watchdog Transparency International
has put Equatorial Guinea in the top 10 of its list of corrupt states. Despite
calls for more transparency in the sector, President Obiang has said oil revenues
are a state secret.
In 1996 Equatorial
Guinea's first multi-party presidential election was held amid reports of
widespread fraud and irregularities, returning President Obiang Nguema with
99% of the vote.
has been accused of widespread human rights abuses and of suppressing political
opposition. A government-in-exile has been formed by opposition leaders living
in exile in Spain; President Obiang accused its leader of sponsoring a failed
coup in 2004.
In the 1970s
it became notorious when the widespread human rights abuses of President Francisco
Nguema caused a third of the population to flee.
Mr Obiang Nguema
overthrew his uncle, President Francisco Nguema, in 1979. The former leader
was tried and executed. The new president proclaimed an amnesty for refugees
and released some 5,000 political prisoners, but kept the absolute control
he had inherited.
President Obiang Nguema won more than 97% of the vote in the country's most-recent
presidential elections, in December 2002. Opposition candidates had withdrawn
from the poll, citing fraud and irregularities.
A drunk was
proudly showing off his new apartment to a couple of his friends late one night.
He led the way to his bedroom where there was a big brass gong and a mallet.
big brass gong?" one of the guests asked.
a gong. It's a talking clock," the drunk replied.
clock? Seriously?" asked his astonished friend.
replied the drunk.
work?" the friend asked, squinting at it.
the drunk replied. He picked up the mallet, gave the gong an ear-shattering
pound, and stepped back.
The three stood
looking at one another for a moment.......
on the other side of the wall screamed, "You asshole..it's three-fifteen
in the morning!"
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
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