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8:30 AM EST, Wednesday, November 14, 2007: Dangerous fake-out. That's what yesterday was. As I wrote yesterday, "Do not be fooled by bear market bounces, which are often violent, and short-lived." Yesterday's was pleasantly violent -- up 2.5% on the Dow; up 3.5% on Nasdaq,; up 4.9% in Hong Kong and up 1.2% in Australia.

None of this changes my view (see yesterday) that we're headed for bad times in the stockmarket.

There are bumps along the way. Your broker will try and talk you out of going to cash. He will have arguments about "no one can time the market" and "You'll miss bounces like yesterday," etc. Trust your own instincts. It's your money. You earned it. You can invest it or not invest it any way you want to.

Reader Robert Coates writes:

Any money manager that ONLY goes long and never goes short is CRAZY. Unfortunately, most mutual funds are this way -- they don't have the authority in their Prospectus to do short trades. Isn't that silly? Why do people think stocks only go up? Obviously, stocks go up, down, and sideways. Your strategy has to take into consideration all 3 scenarios.

By the way -- worse than the guys that never go short are the guys that buy more when things get bad, because they have "sector allocations" they try to meet so they can "average down" their cost. What a bunch of B.S. If it is going down, sell it!

Quote of the day:

"Investors better go to a drugstore and get a neck brace. It’s an extremely emotional market. It goes from boom to doom on a daily basis." -- Ed Yardeni, an investment strategist.

My doctor visit: I have chronic ulceration of my lower esophagus. I'm on 20 mg Omeprazole (generic name for Prilosec) twice a day. Omeprazole cuts down on the acid my stomach produces, allowing my esophagus to heal. That' is now happening -- as seen by my second endoscopy -- they stick a camera down your throat and check what's happening. The point of this story is that my doctor insists on regular visits -- during which he gives me yet another lecture on the importance of sticking with my medication. He says the major problem with pills taken for chronic problems -- like high blood pressure -- is that people stop taking them after they feel "better." This usually lasts six month.

In short, if you have some chronic problem, keep taking your pills< -- no matter how well you feel. I feel great.

The True Cost of a New Television Set: From MSNBC..com

If you're shopping for a television, you several have choices. For those of us who are new to television shopping here's what we can tell you: There are three main types: plasma, LCD, and the micro display. Plasma and LCD are both flat panel and the top sellers. Plasma's a gas and LDC is a liquid. They come with similar price tags, but very different energy costs. Much of the time the amount of energy used is proportional to the heat emitted. So 22News took a thermometer into Manny's TV and Appliance in Wilbraham to find out which TVs are the "hottest".

The Toshiba LCD TV (model 52hl167) was 103 degrees. It runs on about 218 watts. But, the Samsung plasma (model fpt-5084x) was 120 degrees and it runs on about 430 watts. Double the wattage. Double the energy. And more out of your pocket for the electricity bill.

But it's not a simple sticker comparison to find out which TVs are more energy efficient and you can't bet on finding out at the store. Even some of the manuals will not disclose this specification. But you can look them up by model number on the Internet and check out the online manuals or contact the manufacturer.

One item that will not help you make your decision is the energy star rating. On most appliances the energy star indicates the product meets EPA and department of energy guidelines for energy efficiency.

But in the case of televisions, the only energy you're saving is when the TV is turned off.

Evan Terbush of Manny's TV And Appliance in Wilbraham elaborates, "Energy star doesn't actually rate the TV when it's on. It rates the TV when it's actually powered off. Even though it's powered off, the TV actually still is on in a little way." (Harry's comment: It's awaiting input from a remote.)

But once you start flipping through the channels, the meter is ticking. Even though we're composing those holiday lists in the cold months, it's really the summertime when you are going to feel the heat from your new television purchase. Because they generate so much warmth the thermostat will climb considerably. You'll find the bill in your cooling costs.

So when you weigh all the factors including the initial cost, the temperature of the TV, and the cost of running it, it appears that LCD is the best deal.

One-Armed Jock
An English professor told her students that there would be no excuse for not showing up for their final exam, except for serious injury, illness, or a death in the student's immediate family. A smartass jock in the back of the room asked, "What about extreme sexual exhaustion?"

The entire class did its best to stifle their laughter.

When silence was restored, the teacher smiled sympathetically at the student, shook her head, and sweetly said, "You can write with your other hand."

The New Accountant and the two envelopes
An accountant spends a week at his new office, with the accountant he is replacing. On the last day, the departing accountant tells him that he left two envelopes in the desk drawer, and that envelope No. 1 should be opened if he ever encounters any sort of crisis on the job and envelope No. 2 should be opened if a further crisis occurs.

Three months down the road there is a major drama: all the accounts are wrong (the usual stuff) and the accountant feels very threatened by it all. He remembers the parting words of his predecessor, and opens the first envelope. The message inside says: "Blame me!" He does this and gets off the hook.

Three months later, he encounters his next crisis and opens the second envelope.

The message inside says: "Write two envelopes."

This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address is . You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's business school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click here and here.
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