Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM EST Monday, November 20, 2006: Stockmarkets
are easing. Gold is climbing. There is fear about housing's implosion. Cash,
at present high interest rates, looks increasingly interesting. In Sunday's
New York Times, Conrad de Aenlle writes of caution:
May End Before It Starts
THE stock market has had a great run over the last few months, but as the
holiday season begins, some analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end
rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone.
Mary Ann Bartels,
technical research analyst at Merrill Lynch, wondered in a note to investors
whether the tendency for stocks to climb in the last couple of months of the
year had been rescheduled this year for September and October.
yes, she wrote. She then acknowledged feeling torn between what her
charts have told her and what the calendar and history have led her to expect.
It is not our favored stance to be more toward the bear camp looking
for a cyclical correction of 8 to 10 percent, but all of the market indicators
suggest this is the more likely scenario over the coming weeks, Ms.
Bartels said. What is surprising is that these readings are occurring
at this time of year. Most years see a bullish year-end rally.
several exceptions that prove the rule, including three years in the 1990s
when the Standard & Poors 500-stock index lost at least 6 percent
at some point during the last two months of the year. What signs suggest that
2006 will play out as those three years 1991, 1994 and 1996
has shrunk, something that often precedes a price decline, she noted, and
several sentiment indicators, including opinion surveys of investment advisers
and measures of market volatility, show the sort of complacency that typically
occurs near market tops.
She also detected
a barbell strategy among investors, favoring emerging markets
on one end and defensive, high-quality American blue chips on the other while
ignoring the moderately risky stuff in between. That is similar to the pattern
last spring, just before the market took a tumble.
flags lead Ms. Bartels to forecast a decline in the S.& P. 500 to as low
as 1,260 from its close on Friday of 1,401.20 All technical
signs are pointing to the markets nearing a consolidation period and not a
blowoff to the upside, she said. We cannot rule out further upside,
but the risk/reward warrants a more defensive stance.
$10,000 you can avoid some of your electrical bills: Maximum
output is 1.7 kilowatts (about 30% to 90% of most homes' needs), Time Magazine
awarded the Skystream home windmill one of its Best Inventions of the Year
to Southwest Windpower, the maker, this windmill is the first all-inclusive
wind generator (with controls and inverter built in) designed to provide
quiet, clean electricity in very low winds. The maker says it will generate
about 400 kilowatt hours a month at 12 MPH winds. According to my back-of-the
envelope calculations, and assuming a 20 cent price per kilowatt hour,
that would take me slightly over 10 years to pay the windmill off. I may
be missing something... The maker says, to install it, you'll need:
+ At least 10 MPH average wind speed -- best results of 12 MPH or higher.
+ Property is greater than 0.5 acre and is unobstructed.
+ Local zoning allows a structure of at least 42' high.
+ Your local power utility has an existing interconnection agreement --
meaning you can sell electricity back to it.
I'm building a
house in the northeast -- 130 miles north of New York City. I keep looking for
ways to save on energy. So far, the best deal I've found has been blow-in foam
insulation -- which is much better (also more expensive) than standard fiber
be thoroughly depressed when you learn that we have no strategy for Irag
and hence no way of measuring if we're winning or losing.
You'll also be surprised at how intellectually uncurious our president is,
how few questions he asks and how few of his people actually tell him what
they have learned or think.
Why we're in Iraq and when we might get out remain mysteries that this fascinating
book probes but doesn't answer, sadly. I suspect because the Administration
has no answers. The book does quote all the right people. Until the very
end, Bob Woodward, the author, had unprecedented access to all the powers
The is a
gripping, firsthand, "I lived through it" witness to Islamic
terror. Brigitte Gabriel and her family lived in paradise in southern
Lebanon until the Lebanese Civil War broke out in the early 1970s.
For seven years during the war, Brigitte and her family lived in an underground
bomb shelter. They had no running water, no electricity and very little
food. At times they ate grass. Her family was under constant shelling
for no other reason than she and her family were Christian.
She finally got out, became a successful TV journalist, a TV anchor and
has now immigrated to the U.S. She wrote the book and established her
Congress for Truth,
to warn the U.S. of the upcoming threat to all of us non-Muslims and our
serious stuff. It's also engrossing. I couldn't put the book down. Buy
A woman went to her shrink because she was having severe problems in bed. The
psychiatrist asked her many questions but did not seem to be getting a clear
picture of her problems. Finally he asked, "Do you ever watch your husband's
face while making love?"
"Well, yes, I actually did once."
"And how did your husband look?"
"Angry, very angry."
At this point the psychiatrist felt that he was really getting somewhere and
he said, "Well that's very interesting, we must look into this further.
Now tell me, you say that you have only seen your husband's face once during
love making; that seems somewhat unusual. How did it occur that you saw his
face that time?"
"He was looking through the window at us!"
This column is about my personal search
for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have
to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter
and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available
for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second,
the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the
Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their
ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email
address is .
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