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8:30 AM Monday, September 19, 2005: It's guessing time. The Feds may or may not raise rates tomorrow. The Feds may or may not say they're done with hiking. The Fed is obsessed with inflation. It raises rates to counter inflation. Katrina has hurt inflation. Item: Plywood jumped 15% last week at our local building supply store. Worse, they've now run out and won't have any in for three weeks. God knows what it will cost then.

In all likelihood, the Fed will raise rates tomorrow. At some stage the Fed's raising will affect long-term rates, and hurt the housing boom.

On the weekend, I had the misfortune of reading what some economists thought of our economy. Suffice, most are not optimistic. Sample comments:

"Faced with the specter of a housing bubble, rising short-term interest rates, surging energy prices and opaque developments in China, among other crosscurrents, the U.S. economic outlook over the next year has become increasingly uncertain."

Personally, I'm optimistic about the economy, but not about my ability to predict.

Raspberry picking season is in full swing up mid-state New York, where I have a weekend house. The harvest this year is bountiful and the raspberries sweet and juicy. What more could anyone want?



The Dear John Letter
A young girl on a year's training course in South Africa recently received a "Dear John" letter from her boyfriend back home. It read as follows:

Dear Mary,
I can no longer continue our relationship. The distance between us is just too great. I must admit that I have cheated on you twice, since you've been gone, and it's not fair to either of us. I'm so sorry. Please return the picture of me that I sent to you.
Love,
John

Mary, with devastated feelings, asked her colleagues for any snapshots they could spare of their boyfriends, brothers, ex-boyfriends, uncles, cousins etc. In addition to the picture of John, Mary included all the other pictures of the men she had collected from her buddies. There were 57 photos in that envelope....along with this note:

Dear John,
I'm so sorry, but I can't quite remember who you are. Please take your picture from the pile, and send the rest back to me.
Take Care,
Mary

Friendship among women
A woman does not come home one night.
The next day she tells her husband that she slept over at a friend's house.
The man calls his wife's 10 best friends.
None of them know a thing about it.

Friendship among men
A man doesn't come home at night.
The next day he tells his wife that he slept over at a friend's house.
The woman calls her husbands 10 best friends.
Eight of them say he did sleep over .....and two claim he's still there.

Recent column highlights:
+ Blackstone private equity funds. Click here.
+ Manhattan Pharmaceuticals: Click here.
+ NovaDel Biosciences appeals. Click here.
+ Hana Biosciences appeals. Click here.
+ All turned on by biotech. Click here.
+ Steve Jobs Commencement Address. The text is available: Click here. The full audio is available. Click here.
+ The March of the Penguins, an exquisite movie. Click here.
+ When to sell your stocks. Click here.

Harry Newton

This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address is . You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. That money will help pay Claire's law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click here and here.
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