Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM Wednesday, November 2, 2005: Predictably
here) the Fed raised rates, again. This is their entire
mumbo jumbo. They seem to be saying that this is probably the end of the rate
hikes that has taken rates from 1% to yesterday's 4%.
energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions in economic activity have temporarily
depressed output and employment. However, monetary policy accommodation, coupled
with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support
to economic activity that will likely be augmented by planned rebuilding in
the hurricane-affected areas. The cumulative rise in energy and other costs
has the potential to add to inflation pressures; however, core inflation has
been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations
perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside
risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should
be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained,
the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace
that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to
changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain
Vision (ISV) is bouncing higher. It will be $1 by Christmas. They
have a decent solution for common eye diseases. Market cap is still low -- at
$62 million. I've been pumping for this one since it was under 60 cents. It
hit 81 yesterday, closing at 79.
Bush puts aside $7.1 billion for the flu. Until we know more, Bush's
plan sounds a little screwy. For example, the plan calls for spending $1.2 billion
to acquire enough egg-based vaccine by 2009 to protect 20 million people against
the deadly H5N1 strain of avian flu. I wonder which 20 million? I hope it's
only for New York City, i.e. my family and I. The rest of you can catch the
flu and croak? Of course, by the time the Feds get the vaccine to me, the avian
flu virus will have mutated and what I get injected with will do me zero good.
And the rest of the country will have a good laugh. It's time to stay away from
flu stocks. This is getting sillier and sillier.
commercial real estate yields are tightening: Today one of my real
estate syndicators offered me participation in a leveraged shopping center yielding
7.5% to 9.4% over the next ten years, with an average annual return of 8.4%.
That's based on rents. Assuming we sold the building at the end of year 10,
the IRR would only be 9.4%. That may be conservative. And it's possible that
in ten years the building will be worth a lot more. But, in the old days, we
felt comfortable projecting 10-year IRRs of 15% to 18% and we realized over
20%. But now .... prices of commercial properties are so high. The outlook for
the stockmarket looks yuchy. This deal will be snapped up by investors, happy
for a regular dividend check -- any check.
Microsoft has lost its major brains to Google. Most
of my friends have left Microsoft, frustrated with it slowness. Today I emailed
my long-time friend at Microsoft (one of the few still here):
Want to see how half-baked
Microsoft's latest ideas are? Go here: Live.com.
Live? Office Live? Who cares?
Meanwhile Office 12 (the long-awaited new version) languishes and languishes
and languishes. I cant even get a beta.
Google pays me money every month.
Microsoft gives me frustration.
No wonder your stock is in the tank.
reason to stay right away from telecom, in all its forms: Germany's
Deutsche Telekom AG yesterday said 32,000 workers will leave the company over
three years as part of a restructuring program that will cost 3.3 billion euros
due to "massive changes in the industry." In particular, Deutsche
Telekom cited the tough competitive environment in the fixed-network and broadband
sector in Germany, where all the job cuts will take place. The operator said
there would be no compulsory redundancies until 2008. .... I love that "compulsory
redundancies" They can't even call a spade a spade. They're firing the
workers. Face it.
you can and can't do with a digital camera: You
can take great photos with a $8 disposable camera, or a $100 digital camera.
As you pay more for a digital camera, you get two features:
shutter release. You hit the button and the shutter goes off. That lets you
catch fleeting smiles.
2. The ability to use bounce flash. Here are two examples. This is a photo of
me by a tiny Canon D-450 point and shoot digital camera. (For more on this camera,
here.) Look carefully. The photo is fine. But the lighting is clearly
unnatural. It's lit by the strobe on the camera. Had I been closer you would
have seen my red eyes.
I took this one
of Brendan's gorgeous kid with my pricey Nikon D-100, using an external strobe,
DB-800, is bounce mode. I bounced the strobe off the ceiling. Note: no red eyes
and the look of natural light.
at the Patent Office
I went to the US Patent Office yesterday trying to register some of my inventions.
I went to the main desk to sign in and the lady at the desk had a form that
had to be filled out. She wrote down my personal info and then asked me what
I had invented?
I said, "A folding bottle." She said, "Okay, what do you call
"A Fottle", I replied.
"What else do you have?"
"A folding carton."
"And what do you call it?" "A Farton." I replied.
She snickered and said, "Those are silly names for products and one of
them sounds kind of crude."
I was so upset
by her comment that I grabbed the form and left the office without telling her
about my folding bucket.
+ Dumb reasons we hold losing stocks. Click
+ How my private equity fund is doing. Click
+ Blackstone private equity funds. Click
+ Manhattan Pharmaceuticals: Click
+ NovaDel Biosciences appeals. Click
+ Hana Biosciences appeals. Click
+ All turned on by biotech. Click
+ Steve Jobs Commencement Address. The text is available:
Click here. The full audio is available. Click
+ The March of the Penguins, an exquisite movie. Click
+ When to sell stocks. Click
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
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