There are six lessons:
- Cash. Having two years of it in a bank account is good.
- Diversification. Real estate. Stocks. Different types of them. They each blow up a different times.
- Whatever the pundits (in newspapers, on blogs) predict is wrong. They have no idea. I have no idea.
- Pounce when assets become historically cheap, e.g. airlines, cruise lines. I did.
- Don’t panic or despair. Your tenants may not pay you rents today. But they will tomorrow. Lawyers are actually useful.
- Accommodate to Our New World. Put thermometers in your lobby. Issue masks, etc. Your tenants will be back. Working at home is way over-rated.
Above all, don’t get involved in things you can’t do anything about.
Don’t talk about things you can’t do anything about.
Things that are bleeding obvious to my tiny brain are completely opposite to someone else’s brain.
I have to stretch back to 1968-69 and the Vietnam War to find people who disagreed with me so strongly.
Today, it’s worse. The threats I receive over the little politics that have crept into this blog are palpable. Some days I fear for me.
Were I not aware that America has been through tougher times and come out ahead, I would be seriously worried.
But I’m not. My family is healthy (if bored).
I understand the dangers out there.
Tomorrow is my 78th birthday. I’m in the perfect demographics to be felled by the virus. I’m taking my cautions.
Cabin fever is driving us all.
Phone calls, Zoom calls, FaceTime. Yuch.
None of them match the thrill of real people, even for an avowed misanthrope like me..
Cabin fever makes everyone short-term. Hence we make bad short-term decisions like selling good stocks because they dropped a little. And we make bad long-term decisions, based on fantasy predictions. It’s amazing how wrong we can be.
Warren Buffett sells his airline stocks, loses billions. And they do this — they bounce back.
My favorite is Boeing. Every bone in my body said to short it. And I did. But I was wrong.
Fortunately I covered my short early. I made a few bucks. I sort of understand its recent big bounce. Sort of. Airlines are buying planes where they zillions parked in airports all over the country. Google parked airplanes. You;ll find a million images like this:
My Lesson 7 should be “Go With The Flow.” When I saw the airline and cruise stocks taking off, I said “I’ll join this bandwagon” and I bought some. I’m not rolling in found money, but it’s better than a slap in the belly with a cold fish. (Have I used that Australian expression before?).
Of course, had you gone to sleep around January 1 and woke up today, you’d find your stock portfolio would be up. Not much. But OK. A sound case for inaction.
There’s a case for only eyeing your portfolio’s losses and dumping stock which have dropped say 15%. Selectively maybe. Get rid of bad stocks. But, heck, you shouldn’t be owning bad stocks.
Look what happens when the world changes
These guys make RVs. They can’t keep up with demand. The CEO effused on Cramer last night, “You have your own bathroom, own kitchen, own bedroom… and over there is an office.”
Whoever heard of an RV with an office! I thought it was for retired people. Oh…maybe retired people with a stock portfolio.
Backups and fixing
+ Your laptop will lock, not take a charge. Reboot it. That didn’t work. Now, re-set it. There’s a tiny button on the flip side. Push it for ten seconds and pray. Do it again.
+ Keep multiple backups of all your working files. Especially those on your cell phone. Use the cloud. Use flash drives. Use anything and everything.
My daughter, Claire, thinks her Daddy is a genius because I told her where to find the re-set button was on her fancy Lenovo X1 Carbon laptop.
Today
My 87th tennis game this quarantine.
The exercise is great. My legs hurt. Good hurt. But the birds are even better. They’re everywhere. Robins. Blackbirds. Doves. Cardinals. Geese, Finches, Bluejays. I have an app called iBird PRO. I can identify the birds. I can recognize their sounds. iBird PRO is the greatest app ever. Sadly, the app doesn’t stop the birds showing their love for our tennis by showering us with regular presents from the sky. Tip: Keep your mouth shut when serving, especially when Canadian Geese are around.
See you soon — Harry Newton
