We’ve been here before. Last time it was tariffs. And we recovered. We will again.
This time it’s AI excesses.
We’re spending too much. Capital investment is too high. AI income is too slow. And nobody wants a data center in their backyard.
Many many years ago, as I was leaving Australia for business school in the U.S. many, my boss said
“I‘d love the Americans — because, like me, they substitute enthusiasm for intelligence.”
That means I go with my gut.
Mostly it works. When it doesn’t, I re-assess.
That may mean dumping, writing it off or praying (also called “Don’t look at it.”
My father used to say that a man was rich if he could afford the lifestyle he wanted to live. I can still afford semi-overpriced coffee.
The AI downturn (including last week’s disasters) has knocked out half my gains in my heavily AI portfolio — especially Dell, Nvidia, Google, Micron, Amazon etc.
I’m afraid to do something dramatic — like big-time sell — because I did that last year (dumb me) and, for my brilliance, I was rewarded with a $4 million capital gain and a huge tax bill. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb.
Gambling. Pure and Simple.
+ 79% of players lose their prediction bets on Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, etc.
+ 90% to 95% of people lose their money on crypto.
+ 99% of people lose their money on lottery tickets.
North Korean hackers (correctly called thieves) stole $6.3 billion from Binance, the biggest crypto online trading company. Think Fidelity or Schwab but for crypto.
Crypto is made-up arithmetic — with zero relation to any value — like shares of companies or the U.S. government (treasuries).
Zero value. Just marketing hype.
And you thought you had a problem
This book is engrossing.
I read it on Kindle, on the planes, at breakfast, at the swimming pool. Kindle is better than paper because Amazon keeps an online file of all your highlighting. Amazon gives you your own private web site. You can see your notes and highlighting. And it’s all free.
The book is here. It ends before his major involvement in politics. It talks about he did it. Your teenage kids should enjoy it. They should learn something.
This is the $146 Kindle I like, but you can also read for free using the Kindle ap on your iPhone or laptop.
Click here. for this darling little, light Kindle. Perfect for reading in bed. The light doesn’t disturb Susan. Click here. Don’t buy the case. It’s too heavy. If you want mine, send me an email.
Travel
We were in Athens and then a week in Crete at the Nano Golden Beach resort –perfect for young kids. Everything they could want from archery to water parks to swimming to tennis to video games to endless food. This was our second time. Easy to fly in from Athens or Amsterdam.
As a result, I have a million travel “tips.” Here’s a handful:
+ Planes are full. Book way in advance.
+ Everywhere is crawling with tourists.
+ Flights get randomly canceled. Hence don’t check luggage.
+ Book king size beds. Smaller ones will keep you awake.
+ Eat half of what they give you. Go easy on the buffets.
+ You don’t need cash money or credit cards anywhere. Everyone takes the iPhone.
+ Mint Mobile /T Mobile work well in Europe, WhatsApp is free and shines on Wi-Fi.
+ Delta Wi-Fi worked all across the Atlantic. Amazing.
+ Podcasts are fun when walking through airports and standing in endless lines. Download your podcasts before you go. I use PocketCasts. Acquired’ Seinfeld episode is great.
Stocks I’m concerned about
+ Google. I’ve loved Gemini. But AI is eating Google search revenues.
+ Amazon. The goods business is slow. But AWS is booming. Here’s an enormous Amazon warehouse being built in my backyard:
+ ASML. I don’t understand that one. I’m losing on it. I may dump it once I figure out what is going on there.
+ Palantir reports after the bell this evening. It should do well.
+ I keep looking for “diversification.” I like cybersecurity, like CrowdStrike, and Palo Alto Networks. I’m eyeing Cisco, which has surprised me recently.
Keeping myself busy with
+ Reading, and studying.
+ Tennis and ping pong.
I keep wondering if it’s not too late to start a business. There are so many opportunities.
This is the perfect time. Tell your kids.
Ask them to send me a pitch.
Fall is here bigtime
Ghent, NY. Yesterday.
The house has two nice trees and a big Trump banner.
Weather here in Columbia County, New York, couldn’t be better. We’re playing outside today.
Neat chart showing comparisons:
Source: Strijn Von Nieuwerbrgh, courtesy Paul Krugman
Please don’t forget to vote. It’s tomorow.
See you soon. — Harry Newton
