My friendly big bank tells me they’re five times oversubscribed. Which means they got few shares from Elon or they have zillions of rich clients, who have drunk and overdosed on the Elon Kool-Aid.
Prepare for your wildest ride. The IPO price is $135. It could easily hit $600. Every one and their drunken uncle want in.
There are underwriters like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs who will try and control the madness. There are people who got cut back or didn’t get any. They are now drunk on the madness and euphoria of the skyrocketing price. They’ll want in so they’ll buy.
There’s no valuation that makes sense. Unless you value Elon in for cool trillion of part time “goodwill.” Of note: Elon has more jobs than Carter had Liver Pills.
Some people have been told not to sell. If they get caught selling, they won’t get any Anthropic (think Claude) or OpenAI or whatever is coming next that’s scalding hot.
There are some people who will just buy on the market, irrespective. They’re figuring the stock will go up and up. Then they’ll sell and take a quick profit and then they’ll be the crazies who decide that the price parabola is too steep and they sell it short.
Expecting a wild ride (maybe the wildest we’ve ever seen) many will stick around and buy what they can. When they can.
It’s coming today.
I put in for a handful of SpaceX. I’m told they’ll allocate my allocation sometime this morning (Friday) morning. I’m guessing I’ll get a small handful.
Will I sell them NO. Because then they won’t give me stock of Anthropic and OpenAI and whatever else is coming down the Pike.
I think I’ll make a little separate portfolio of hot AI stocks and call it Harry’s Hot AI Stocks and maybe I’ll give the portfolio to my grandchildren. Then they can deal with the data centers on Jupiter or Mars.
Madness is part of the human condition. It can be enjoyable — to watch or participate in.
Want to know how good Elon is at promotion? Watch this video — if you didn’t see when I ran it recently.
The markets — major volatile
Here’s a five-day chart of Nasdaq, NVDA, SNDK and MU.
Once I was heavily concentrated in Nvidia. But I’ve since learned a broad portfolio of stocks heavily focused on AI works the best. Did I know Sandisk, Marvell, Intel and Micron would bounce strongly up this week?
Most days something is bouncing strongly. And if it’s not, I’m out. I am not in MSFT, META or Netflix. I’m just not turned on by what they’re doing or how their stocks are performing. That could change.
See you tomorrow. — Harry Newton, proud grandfather of a future U.S. President, Sophie Newton Maloney.
