Monday morning.
Friends have gone to more cash. Others are sticking it out. They figure you can’t time the market, nor this war.
The last time Trump wrecked my portfolio was Liberation Day back in April last year. I panicked, sold too much. Then I took far took long to get back in. That cost me big-time. This time I’m hanging in. I’m also not trying to be “smart” by picking sectors or stocks that will thrive in war — energy, cybersecurity, defense makers or gold. I have done that already. See my portfolio in the right hand column. Click here.
I’m also not as smart as Barron Trump:
(This Barron oil brilliance is probably not true. Never let the facts interfere with a good story!)
Here’s oil over the last five days:
Iran picked “my guy”
In my previous blog I wrote
Predicting War’s End. More endless hate. Think cyberattacks.
They will soon have a new Supreme Leader, the son of the one we killed.
The new guy will not love us. We just killed his father, his wife, his son and other members of his family.
Reuters says he has opposed reformers seeking to engage with West.
We will eventually stop bombing. We’ll restock our stock of bombs, missiles and drones.
They will, too. Ready for the next go-around.
And on and on it goes. Another 50 years of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” But, sadly, no “Long Live Iran.”
For us, there’ll be more cyberattacks, less computer safety. The Iranians are really good at cybernasties. Really good. Your business should be protected. Don’t respond to phishing with fishy email addresses. Think Palo Alto Networks, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike. (There are others.)
Think saving your precious work regularly. Think ScanDisk flash drives to protect your laptop’s stuff.
As a second choice, go with the cloud. But don’t trust anything you can’t hold in your very own hand, like this little SanDisk:
I prefer a backup laptop ready to go when your main one is hacked and dies. As it will.
The new guy, Mojtaba Khamenei, is very close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, who basically run the country. They control between one-third and a half of Iran’s economy. Here’s Perplexity on them:
The IRGC and its front companies hold major positions in oil and gas, petrochemicals, construction and infrastructure (through Khatam al‑Anbiya), ports and logistics, telecommunications, banking, and real estate.
They also benefit from no‑bid state contracts, privileged access to state assets, and a large share of oil‑export revenues; recent budgets allocate tens of billions of dollars in oil income and privatized state assets to IRGC‑linked or supreme‑leader‑linked institutions.
Why estimates vary
Much IRGC‑linked activity runs through opaque “foundations,” holding companies and smuggling networks, so official statistics understate their reach.
As sanctions intensified and foreign firms left, the Guards picked up more contracts and informal trade, likely increasing their share of effective control beyond older one‑third estimates, even if exact current percentages remain uncertain.
In practical terms, most experts describe the IRGC as controlling a large and often dominant share of Iran’s productive, strategic, and rent‑generating economy, even if no single figure is definitive.
Between one-third and one-half of the Iranian economy is controlled by the IRGC, which the U.S. classifies as a terrorist organization.
Favorite cartoons (Your grandkids will love these)
I’m praying that one day soon, the Administration will announce they’ve stopping the bombing, have accomplished their objectives and have come home without boots on the ground. Many people in New York City are worried about Iranian nastiness in the subway.
My PT (physical therapy) guy told me “The body is wonderful how it heals itself.” My calf is feeling remarkably healed — by dint of doing basically nothing — lots of rest and light walking.
As I post this blog — mid-day Monday — my portfolio is actually up. Go figure.
I nibbled at a bit more ESLT, the big Israeli defense maker.
The biggest beneficiary from this war? Russia. Maybe Trump will still get his towers there one day?
Don’t forget to tell your grandkids the sad news: “They aren’t making yardsticks any longer.“
See you very soon. — Harry Newton
