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Energy returned.Thank you Harry for pushing Nvidia. Now what? Bucket list revisited.

I’m back. Yesterday was my worst day in the market ever.

The talking heads on TV called it “rotation” when, a week ago, suddenly (out of nowhere) tech stocks — like the ones I own in spades — fell and others started rising.

At that time, I figured it didn’t make sense for me to “rotate” out of stocks I owned and understood. And, moreover, no one (least of all me) has ever been able to time the market — getting in and out on a dime. The market goes through these gyrations — it’s part of the “process” — and resumes its upward direction eventually.

All very comforting intellectually.

Until, Donald Trump gave an interview to Bloomberg Businessweek (published two days ago on Tuesday) and threw a mini-Black Swan at the stock market and said in effect, he didn’t care if the world went into a major depression.

Trump declined to provide assurances that the U.S. would protect Taiwan against Chinese aggression if he’s elected president. “They did take about 100% of our chip business,”

Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek. “Taiwan should pay us for defense.” “I wouldn’t feel so secure right now if I were them,” he added.

To my tiny brain, that seemed like Trump was inviting China to do whatever they want with Taiwan — the same thing he told Putin about Ukraine. (Trump is insane.)

Taiwan is actually more important to the world economy than Ukraine. Without Taiwanese chips (i.e. there was a war and Taiwan’s chipmaking was destroyed) there’s no way today’s economy would survive. The chip factories we’re rushing to build in the U.S., courtesy Biden’s Chips Act, won’t come on line for years. And may never produce the quality and speed that Taiwan Semiconductor and Nvidia have been making.

Frankly, I’m totally confused that Trump and his team seem to have so little idea of the importance of semi-conductor chips to the world economy.

Which brings me to “What should Harry do now and why?”

Diversify is the cry you hear from the talking heads (like Cramer) on TV.

I’d love to buy UNH. But this movement is irrational, unpredictable and … crazy.

So, for now, I’m going to assume that sanity will eventually return — Trump will not abandon Taiwan and JD Vance will change his mind (again) and decide to support Ukraine.  And that, if we physically get the chips, Nvidia and others will keep on the AI path.

I love these points which come from a recent report on AI from JPMorgan:

Harry’s Portfolio

Nvidia is still my biggest position — by far. I could write a book on why it’s the biggest. But here’s my two-second logic: It’s doing everything right — from great management to new, faster chips to a software moat (called CUDA) to new investments in, and partnerships with the smartest Computer/AI companies and people around.

My Nvidia shares are way down after yesterday. But, as of this morning, they’re still up 121%. “Diversification” could not have given me that.

If you followed me into Nvidia, say “Thank you, Harry.”

My short-term treasuries have all matured. I put the money into new companies which are benefitting from the AI boom:

+ SMCI — Super Micro.  It puts Nvidia chips into computers it makes. I’ve been in and out of SMCI because I was scared of it. But it has done better than NVDA this year. So I’m now in it permanently. I’ll buy more.

+ Dell has hooked its star to Nvidia and is making servers for everyone and their uncle.

+ Micron (MU) is making fast memory/storage chips specially configured for the speeds AI needs. I like their story.

+ Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) makes everyone’s chips, including Nvidia’s. Yet it’s P/E remains ultra-low at 36.

+ Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk are my fatness gamble. 65% of us are fat/obese. Everyone wants to get thinner. These two are “no-brainers.”

More tomorrow on “augmentation” strategy.

It’s dangerous out there.

+ Friends are falling, down stairs, in the woods, some with heart attacks.  Those who don’t wear an Apple Watch die. The Watch can call help. Everyone 65 and over should wear one. That recommendation isn’t because I own shares in Apple.

+ Covid is resurging. Everyone is getting it. Wear a mask in crowded places. And now Biden has it. The new Covid (which I had for ten days) was really really awful. I didn’t have the energy to write my blog. That was the major reason I disappeared.

+ A dear friend is in hospital with an awful, painful variation on Shingles. Other friends are in hospital because they fell and broke something.

Upshot: You need all the latest vaccines for Shingles, Covid, RSV and Flu. They mightn’t stop you getting sick, but they’ll sure make your sick less sick. Paxlovid will keep you out of the hospital, but it will give you three days of Covid Rebound. It did for me.

Don’t do stupid. Excess obesity and no exercise will do you in. Even walking is better than nothing. Try tennis or swimming.

Techie stuff

+ Your car battery needs changing. My guy tells me he changes more batteries in the summer than the winter. It’s because of the heat.

+ Your tires need changing. I just spent $2800 on eight new Michelin tires for our two cars. We live on a dirt road in the country with jagged stones that eat tires.

+ Mavis Tire is the worst. Don’t use them. They make more mistakes than Carter had liver pills.

+ Verizon is getting worse and worse. Mint Mobile (a reseller of T-Mobile) is much better and a lot cheaper.

+ DirectV is a disgrace. I finally sent all their 19th century equipment back them. Why they want it back is beyond my tiny brain.

+ Your car’s key fob ‘s battery will die. It probably needs a CR2032. Buy some now from Amazon — before it’s too late. Figure three years on a car fob.

It’s time for Biden to go

I’ve been surveying my friends. Here are our choices:

Taylor Swift

Jimmy Kimmel

The Rock

And everyone’s favorite: Larry David.

I’m five months older than Biden. I can only imagine what he’ll be like after another four years in office, when he’ll be 86 and I’ll be 87 or, most likely, dead.

Favorite cartoons

If you’ve made it this far, here’s a special treat

You can now take climbing Mt Everest off your bucket list. This video will blow you away.

There are so many wonderful reasons to be alive. The family is all healthy. All the grandkids are in, out or moving between summer camps, which they all love. Our AC is working. I’m playing tennis every day. I’ve got my blood pressure down to 125/73.

I think good thoughts and eat salad.

Life is wonderful. See you tomorrow. Promise. — Harry Newton