A reader commented yesterday,
“On Harry’s behalf I’d like to apologize to readers of this column that followed his advice and invested in that Vanguard long-term tax free bond fund early this year. It’s basically flat on the year. If instead you’d simply invested in the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, you’d be up almost 13%. I bought JP Morgan (up 35%) and Microsoft (+23%). But keep following Harry’s advice, there are worse people to follow investment wise – I’m guessing.”
I replied that Monday morning quarterbacking is wonderful and that, though Vanguard’s bond fund was flat, it does pay a handsome tax-free dividend.
And that tax-free dividend was important to my investment goals. Your goals will differ. Perhaps you’re younger — I’m 69 — and can afford to gamble more? My gambling days are over. My investing days are in.
What our fellow had forgotten has been my relentless “pushing” of Apple, which has done spectacularly:
Am I sensitive to criticism? Yes.
But let’s look at Microsoft, for example. It’s done very well in the last few months:
But over tenyears it’s done awfully. It’s done far worse than my Vanguard bond fund.
Intel has followed the same pattern. Like Microsoft it still sells for less than what it sold for in 2004, or in Microsoft’s case in late 2007.
I tend to get excited about stocks whose products and strategies excite me specifically and the world’s consumers generally.
But there aren’t many. I do like Nike, Home Depot, DHR, and AutoLiv (ALV). But none of these have given me anywhere near the returns Apple has.
The last six months have been great for equities — all of them with a pulse. But we are not out of the woods. Unemployment remains stubbornly high (see today’s numbers). Europe is a mess. China is slowing down. Congress remains dysfunctional.
Buy hot stocks in today’s hot market. Try LULU and KORS. But keep those stops tight — no more than 8%. And make sure you have a cash dividend. It can cover a lot of ills.
And watch out for gambling. Natural gas is a wonderful fuel. We make it here. Yet, yesterday it hit a ten-year low in price. That’s a testimony to how much of the stuff we have in the United States and how powerful the oil industry’s lobby is — petrol at the pump in California is well over $4 a gallon, even for regular.
By the way, my critic failed to answer my question about what he’s investing in today.
25 ways to make travel easier, courtesy the Wall Street Journal. Some of the tips:
+ Never put valuables in a checked bag. The airline’s liability for loss and damage is quite limited, and airlines don’t offer any reimbursement for many lost items, including jewelry, electronics and valuables. If forced to check your bag at the gate because overhead bins are full, pull out valuables and electronics.
+ Pack clothing with just two colors. That way, everything matches and you save room in your bag.
+ Never check the suit you need for the next day, whether it is a bathing suit or a business suit. Bags get lost and delayed.
+ Have a travel bag with toiletries so you’re not packing that every trip, and a bag with chargers and power cords so you don’t have to round them up or risk leaving them behind.
+ Laptop goes on the belt last. If I get delayed at the metal detector, the laptop won’t be sitting out in the open for a long time.
+ Never call home happy. I learned this the hard way many years ago. Out of town covering a big news event, I called home giddy. I was enjoying a fine meal with a large contingent of reporters. My wife listened quietly while I recounted the excitement of the story and the fun we were having over wine. And then I heard all about the two kids who had been throwing up all day. Big mistake on my part.
+ Wear only natural fabrics– cotton, wool, linen. Never wear nylons. If there’s a fire they melt onto your legs.
+ As a female, never wear a long skirt through security, it gets you a pat down.
+ Never check a wedding gown. Can’t believe the dumb brides that do.
For the full article, click here.
New York City clothes and shoes are free of local city and state sale tax as of April 1. The exemption applies to stuff selling for $110 or less. Please come shop. Our retailers need the money.
Don’t pay your contractor until… He or she gives you full documentation on what he did. Item: the local genius plumber designed and installed an elaborate hot water and heating system in our new house. Sadly, the local “genius” has left town… You can figure the rest of the story.
Best downloads for the new (and old) iPads.
+ Bloomberg.
+ Kindle.
+ Skype. Do video calls with your kids.
+ The Weather Channel.
+ iPhoto for the iPad.
+ Yelp, for finding restaurants.
+ Peggle, super fun game.
Rescue of dolphins on a Brazilian beach. Brings tears to your eyes. Click here.
Harry Newton. Today is my last day in the California desert. Tomorrow I return to New York and the avalanche of bills, the insane vendors, the noise and the general stress of living in wonderful New York City. And worse, we’re traveling on JetBlue, which has at least one “freaking” pilot. You read about the JetBlue pilot who completely lost it? Click here.
And – quarterbacking is one word.
Fixed. thank ou.
Ou forgot the 'y'. (Just kidding).
I for one find your column very informative, If nothing else, it helped me choose the best laptop I've ever owned – my Thinkpad X series. Keep up the good work.
Well, I bought Microsoft and JP Morgan at the bottom and rode them up. So your premise is that Apple will keep rising indefinitely, toward the sky? Like real estate in 2005 and tech stocks in 2001?
Buy a clue, man. You think you're genius for recommending what everyone recognizes is the hottest stock around? I dislike how you consistently tout your few good moves and ignore all your bad ones.
Actually, I'm very adamant about stop losses. That protects us from the downside.
What I don't understand is if you dislike what I write, why do you bother to read it?
After all, I'm the one that puts hours and hours of work into this column. Not you.
Sometimes I get it right. Sometimes I don't…. An idea: why don't you send your ideas in?
That way we can all benefit.
Right on Harry. I just don't get people like Fred who like to pick apart a low keyed column that they didn't even have to pay for (or read for that matter). I'm sure there are many out here, like me, who don't often comment, but do appreciate your effort.
The fun thing about Harry's columns is that its a pretty freeflowing exchange of ideas. In the markets, you are sometimes going to be right, and sometimes going to be wrong. Harry certainly finds interesting perspectives to read about, sometimes from sources that I would not otherwise find. With ideas, the point is to use them to formulate opinions, and then rationally act thereupon. But its no guarantee, so be wise enough, and mature enough, to stick with the ones that work, and get out of the ones that dont.
Most importantly, have a Strategy, one fluid enough to make changes as circumstances dictate, and one that is based upon logic.
WHile I dont necessarily like Bonds here, they certainly worked for more than two decades.
Harry is not my broker or advisor, nor is he yours. He is just a guy who I find very helpful, and sometimes amusing, in helping me think about things.
So far, to my advantage.
Thank you.
I have to agree with the don't call home happy… My wife goes out of town from time to time for conferences and has fun while I stay home with the kids. Last time, one of her friends mistakenly sent a text to our home phone about meeting at a bar downstairs in 10 min. Of course I replied 'no' to the text 😉