In Search of the Perfect Investment

He could turn his $50,000 investment into $500,000 in five years, he figured. His question was simple: How should he value the company he was about to buy into?

The standard way is to find some measure of profits — like free cash flow, or EBITA — and multiply it by something. That “something” might be five times. It might be 30 times. It depends on how fast the company is growing, or what the comparables are.

But, I explained, valuation is irrelevant if you’re buying. What’s relevant is what they’ll take. Offer them a price that insults them. Wait for their response. Then split the difference. Buying is not very sophisticated — except you’d better not want the thing too hard and bid too high. The price you pay is a major determinant of the returns you’ll ultimately get. The price you pay is often the only determinant. Think real estate, for example.

But, his proposed investment had major issues — the family is  squabbling, the company is  located in Latin America in one of the less stable countries, it is  in a notoriously volatile industry and worse, profitability has  yet to be tested. That’s a polite way of saying its profits were sort of non-existent, unless you believed the handsome projections.

Moreover the investment he was planning was a major part of his net worth.

Why?

He had one answer: “What else was there to do with the cash?” Getting 2% a year from a local bank was an insult, etc.

There was another unspoken answer: He’d done so much due diligence that his brain was locked in. He’d convinced himself of his own brilliance.

One of the problems with due diligence is the longer it takes the better it is. But the more you’re convinced of your brilliance. No one wants to spend that time and then walk.

Fact is few private companies make it for their investors.

Want a list of my disasters of the last few years?

Oh and the cash? Two percent is a heck of a lot better than losing your entire principal. Maybe two percent doesn’t keep up with inflation.

Cash is just as good as money.

And — if it makes him feel better — all of us have the problem with cash. Few of us know what to do with it, and preserve it. God bless the FDIC. Though bankrupt, it does have a printing press.. But that’s another story.

You can happily forget Avatar

It is the most expensive movie ever made — somewhere between $230 million and $500 million. But it’s not worth nearly three hours of your time. I’m no movie critic. But it seems to my naive brain that a movie ought to have a plot and keep you engrossed. Avatar’s plot is tenuous. For reasons that are never made clear, a bunch of unfeeling military people try to eliminate a harmless race of indigenous people. The military people are led by an unthinking master sargeant type who loves barking out forgettable sentences — like “Im here to protect you all. And I won’t succeed.” But above all, he loves a battle. The good news is that the indigenous people win out in the end. Love also wins. There’s the obligatory love plot here. Even a scene of the indigenous people making it. It won’t turn you on.

If you stretched this into a morality play, you could argue that James Cameron is telling us we’re wasting our time (and will lose) in Afghanistan, Iraq and wherever else we try to eliminate the harmless, local folk.

Apart from the publicity, the movie’s “big” draw is the animation in 3D, which is superb. But movies are meant to have plots. If I want to nap (which I did through Avatar), I have a nice comfortable bed at home and can go to another movie.  All the other movies give me a senior discount — which Avatar didn’t. Maybe the $13 price tag For Avatar put me into a sour mood as I entered the theater (early, to get a seat) and waited 20 minutes (yes 20 whole minutes) while they showed me trailer after trailer — all certified suitable for watching by children.

You can happily forget Avatar.

Miracles happen

The City of New York just dug up the sidewalk outside our building and planted three trees. No one asked them to do. They just did. Maybe it’s because they wanted to say “Thank You” to me for all their general obligation New York City muni bonds I own. And if I believe that, I bet they’ll sell me a nice bridge or two.

Fixing Outlook 2007’s Calendar

Open the Calendar. Right click anywhere blank. Click on “Other Settings.” Change your time scale to 60 minutes. Suddenly you’ll be able to see all your day’s appointments.

Yogi Berra’s quotes

I know Yogi said something about cash being almost as good as money. But I couldn’t find his quote.  I did find some others that seemed appropriate to today, the last day of the year.

+ It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

+ A nickel isn’t worth a dime today.

+ Always go to other people’s funerals, otherwise they won’t come to yours.

+ Anyone who is popular is bound to be disliked.

+ Baseball is ninety percent mental. The other half if physical

+ I didn’t say the things I said.

+ I made a wrong mistake

+ If you don’t know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.

+ In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.

+ Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.

+ The game isn’t over until it’s over.

We’ll try harder in 2010.

Kiss and hug the family tonight. They’re all you got. Trust me on this one.

Harry Newton. (I still look like this, despite the bike accident.)