It’s hard — perhaps impossible — to predict this crazy market. One day Europe is solved. The next day it’s a disaster. Europe is the classic cockroach.
Hence the great saying, “When in doubt, stay out.” Remember the name of our game (certainly my game) is protecting my capital. The shekels I have gotta last me. I don’t have a day job.
Apple bounced, but gold fell. Maybe gold will bounce today and Apple will fall.
HP is firing 27,000 people and the stock goes up. Strikes me if you fire that many people you have no idea what you’re doing, and/or lack opportunities. Fortunately I did recommend shorting Dell. HP is now a short, also.
VectorVest said last night, “Prudent Investors should have their shopping lists ready to buy stocks long tomorrow should the rally continue.”
In other words, if it goes up, it will go up. If it goes down, it will go down. Wow! That’s insightful.
I’m bored with Facebook. Zuck suckered Wall Street brilliantly. He got big bucks for the stock he sold, and the little (retail) investor got screwed — unless you dumped on day one, as I did and recommended that you do also.
My present recommendation: Do not even think about buying Facebook (FB) at its present “depressed” price. Unless Zuck pulls a rabbit out of the hat in the way of a fantastic new service, it’s all over for Facebook. The users are bored with it. They’re spending less time on Facebook’s site. Advertising can’t be targeted because Zuck won’t let it be — unlike Google. And advertisers (like GM) will flee when they wake up. Moreover competition will ultimately eat Facebook’s lunch. Search Wikipedia for “social network.” You’ll be staggered how many there are, and I can assure you there are zillions more coming. I’ve seen a few new ones in recent days.
I’m getting theories about retailing. Retailers without proprietary product or some other major schtick (yiddish for benefit) are doomed. New York is a good place to check out some phenomenal stores. When you’re next here, please visit:
1. Uniqlo on Fifth Avenue. It has 89,000 square feet of gorgeous layout, gorgeous product (all its own) and gorgeous prices. Last night I bought a blue linen jacket (slim fit) for $59.90, a pair of jeans for $12.50, a cashmere cardigan for $19.90 and six pairs of brightly-colored socks Susan will hate for only $9. Susan loves the store for its warm-in-winter, silky soft underwear. I went in to buy a pair of jeans and came out with a bucketful of fantastic stuff. Wait till you see my new skinny jeans.
2. B&H Photo. Try to buy a decent camera retail anywhere in New York, the retailer will say he doesn’t have it in stock, go to B&H. B&H has more inventory than Carter had liver pills. B&H has the most knowledgeable salespeople. B&H has great prices. But, best of all, B&H has an automated delivery and sales system that is mind-blowing. I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s worth a visit just to see the conveyor belts in action, and to feel the frenzy. It’s palpable.
3. The Time Warner Center with a 55,000 square foot Whole Foods in the basement. Out back, they have a huge 5,500 square foot kitchen which churns out the prepared foods which wealthy, spoiled New Yorkers love. You must check out the lines in the early evening. The place also has a restaurant in case you can’t wait to get the stuff home. If I shopped there more than once a week, I’d weigh twice as much. You ought to see the scrumptious deserts, especially the cheese cake varieties. The coffee one is my favorite. Once you’ve pigged out in Whole Foods, the rest of the four-floored indoor shopping center that constitutes the Time Warner Center is also interesting, if only to listen to all the European accents. New York is a shopping mecca for Europe.
4. The Apple store in Grand Central railway Terminal. Start with a great railway station and add a huge Apple store. It’s worth the trip.
5. NikeTown on 57th Street. The retailing presentation is not as creative as Uniglo, but it does present the vast array of what Nike produces, which in itself is impressive.
6. Tiffanys on Fifth Avenue and 57th Street. It hasn’t changed in eons. But visiting the store opens your eyes to Tiffany’s strength — the vast continuum of products and prices it offers. No matter your wealth (or lack of), you’ll find a handsome present there. Give it in the light blue box and have your recipients instantly love you.
Retail places not to visit since they has no product of interest, have boring displays and hence have zero redeeming value: RadioShack, Best Buy, Staples, Bloomingdales, Saks and any of the other big department stores.
Harry does Brooklyn.New York subways are full of sweet, lovely, remarkably friendly people — especially if you talk to them. Here’s a proud mother and three great kids:
For more family photos, courtesy my Canon G10, click here.
French Tennis starts on Sunday. The Tennis Channel will carry early rounds.
In lieu of grandchildren, I‘ll revel in these kids’ stories:
LOT’S WIFE;
The Sunday School teacher was describing how Lot’s wife looked back And turned into a pillar of salt, when little Jason interrupted, “My Mommy looked back once while she was driving,” he announced triumphantly, “and she turned into a telephone pole!”
GOOD SAMARITAN
A Sunday school teacher was telling her class the story of the Good Samaritan. She asked the class, “If you saw a person lying on the roadside, all wounded and bleeding, what would you do?” A thoughtful Little girl broke the hushed silence, “I think I’d throw up.”
DID NOAH FISH?
A Sunday school teacher asked, “Johnny, do you think Noah did a lot of fishing when he was on the Ark ?” “No,” replied Johnny. “How could he, with just two worms.”
HIGHER POWER
A Sunday school teacher said to her children, “We have been learning how powerful kings and queens were in Bible times. But, there is a Higher Power. Can anybody tell me what it is?” One child blurted out, “Aces?”
BEING THANKFUL
A Rabbi said to a precocious six-year-old boy, “So your mother says your prayers for you each night? That’s very commendable. What does she say?” The little boy replied, “Thank God he’s in bed!”
SAY A PRAYER
Little Ricky and his family were having Sunday dinner at his Grandmother’s house. Everyone was seated around the table as the food was being served. When Little Ricky received his plate, he started eating right away. “Ricky! Please wait until we say our prayer.” said his mother. “I don’t need to,” the boy replied. “Of course, you do,” his mother insisted, “We always say a prayer before eating at our house.” “That’s at our house,” Ricky explained. But this is Grandma’s house and she knows how to cook!”
Harry Newton who is increasingly convinced that the squeaky wheel gets the most attention. After that, make sure it’s in writing. Nobody honors verbal commitments any longer. Trust me on this one.
Harry I love your column but think you're shooting from the hip a bit when you say that FB is done unless it pulls a rabbit out of the hat … they have very detailed personal information on so many people. There is real value in that data. They haven't truly unlocked it yet but they're sitting on billions of cash from the IPO, bank revolvers, etc. and the question to me is really, what else besides Instagram are they going to buy and/or what else are they going to develop. I think we are in early days still for leveraging the rapid social networking growth that we've seen, and helping advertisers make sense of that big data. If I'm taking a long-term view I would wait until (knock on wood) the market gets nice and spooked by FB in the short-term (i.e. it goes to 15) and then buy in and watch it go to 50 or 60 in a couple years. Google it ain't perhaps but it is a pretty unique company that's in a great position to capitalize on pent-up demand to understand what consumers are doing online and how that translates to real-world purchasing habits.
At $15 FB could be most interesting. That's way below where it is now.
Personally I believe they have less useful information on their 900 million users than you think.
Speaking of GM… (from Instapundit) “GM’s post-bailout IPO launched at $33 a share, and the stock is now trading at $22, after being repeatedly touted by the highest officials of the U.S. government. Yet the suckersinvestors who bought it aren’t having a cow.” Why aren't you whining about the head of GM? Whoever that is…
Harry I think you mean Uniqlo with a Q, not Uniglo.
You are 100% right. It is Uniqlo.And its a great store. My $60 linen unlined jacket is perfect for summer.
A couple of years ago I deleted my Facebook account. It was actually hard to do. The reason I left is because Zuck was a little too casual in his exploitation of customers. It does not surprise me that this now applies to investors.
Facebook IPO'd for one reason only (if you listen to Zuck). To allow employees to cash out. They are putting proceeds in the bank. They do not need funds to run operations. Investors who bought on speculation (and there were a lot) have absolutely no reason to be complaining now. Doesn't matter what 'other' companies do. FB is and always will be the exception. Get used to it or get out.
Harry, I think you may have it wrong on Facebook. This is a company, and a service, that is here to stay. My impression is that while our generation may be losing interest in using Facebook, my son's and daughter's generation is not. It's their go-to location on the web. It's how they communicate (along with texting), how they share, and how they research. I think Zuck had it right. Squeeze as much money as he could for himself and the company, and then go back to growing his vision. It would be interesting to see what you wrote about Google when it went public. Did you ever think it would be where it is today? Much like Google and Apple, I think FB is a great product, and in the end, that will be reflected in its stock growth. To have the opportunity to get in today at the low $30's may look like a bargain a few years from now.
And on another topic, I would add a couple of other great retailing experiences in NYC: the old Brooks Brothers store on Mad and 44th, Eataly on 23rd and 5th, Fairway at all their locations, Sahadi on Atlantic Ave in Brooklyn and the Borsalino hat store on Fifth and 33rd St. I'm sure I'm leaving out a few.
Eataly on 23 rd Street is stunning. You are right. Everyone should visit it. Susan loves Fairway. I haven't visit Sahadi or Borsalino. Sounds like I have some great bike rides ahead of me. thank you.
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Advertising can’t be targeted…” Harry, that statement is absolutely incorrect. I buy FB ads, successfully, to promote several events a year. I target by age, location (within 50 miles), sex, likes, keywords, and affiliations. It works very (very!) well with nice tight targets. Your info on this is not correct.
Other social networks have been around for a long time. I did a Webcast on this a couple of years ago and the list was long then too. It's a matter of critical mass. Google+ STILL doesn't have momentum and mass. It's fair to say that FB has effective competition in specific countries/regions, but on the whole and in the US nobody is even close. And “close” is too strong of a word. No other service (except YouTube) is even in the same region of time and space.
People do leave Facebook. And new people come. And some people come back. Facebook is a public park. For a while the fastest growing FB demographic was among high school age teens. Now, it's among women over 50. Things change in the park… and they stay the same.
The problem with the IPO is with the greed of the underwriters. Their greed undermined any technical judgement or skill they have. GM's highly publicized departure from FB was tied into the politics of the IPO. You can't use GM as a yardstick for ANYTHING. Government Motors is now a sad chimera that signifies for nothing… not even other sad chimeras.
Great kid jokes!
I remember, as a young CEO of a public company doing an offering, what a challenging time it was dealing with all the opinions of corporate counsel, underwriters, auditors, etc. I am not so sure that Zuck is totally to blame for the fiasco. I think he was probably poorly served by the “experts”. I suggest that he was probably not the one pushing for the larger overage of shares offered….
I suggest to you that he knew exactly what he was doing — get money for himself and the early investors who supported him. He was, justifiably, not interested in the public investors (which had done nothing for him) or even the underwriters (which he actually did pay handsomely)
…interstingly enough. as CEO of a public company, he is now a fiduciary for more than just his own interests; he has a fiduciary responsibility to his shareholders…at least according to the law.