The Greeks voted to stay in Eurozone. That’s good.
They will still have to be bailed out. That’s bad.
The Spanish, the Italians, and soon the French, are in miserable shape. They’ll need bailouts. Big ones. Where will the money come from? Will it be enough to calm fretting markets? Your guess is as good as mine.
Europe was excited when the pro-bailout Greek party won. But “Markets Relief Fades at Greek Election Results” headlined today’s New York Times.
IN this global mess, the best strategy is to
+ Pick stocks with no exposure to Europe, e.g. Con Edison:
+ Stay in cash. Maybe your favorite stock will plummet and you can pick it up cheap. Maybe. These markets are not easy. Every hedge fund and his uncle went short the Euro last week in anticipation of a messy Greek election The good guys won and the Euro is up! There’s a lot of ashen faces this morning in Greenwich, CT.
+ Keep your stops ultra tight — no more than 6%,
+ Pick some obvious shorts. You have my list. You might find fodder in recent IPOs, most of which have not done well, viz, this chart and words from Business Inider:
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Facebook IPO was not the most disastrous IPO of all time from a first-month perspective.
It was the third worst.
But we wanted to see how Facebook stacked up against other companies who saw market caps erased as stocks plummeted.
Of all issuances that raised more than $1 billion in the U.S., only Giant Interactive and United Microelectronics fared worse.
Another big firm that withered over its first calendar month (about twenty trading days): MF Global, which in 2007 was spun off from Man Group.
Below, the worst first month IPO performance.
A Business Insider reader chimed in with his list, writing:
IPOs over the last year have been garbage. What am I supposed to invest in Dunkin Donuts and Zillow and GNC. These stocks are crap. Name 1 or 2 things I should pick from this crap list.
Synacor, Inc. (SYNC)
Ellie Mae, Inc. (ELLI)
GNC Holdings, Inc. (GNC)
LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD)
Proto Labs, Inc. (PRLB)
Tangoe, Inc. (TNGO)
Michael Kors Holdings Limited (KORS)
Splunk Inc. (SPLK)
Annie’s, Inc. (BNNY)
NewLink Genetics Corporation (NLNK)
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE)
Demandware, Inc. (DWRE)
American Realty Capital Trust, Inc. (ARCT)
Thermon Group Holdings, Inc. (THR)
Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. (DNKN)
Zillow, Inc. (Z)
Francesca’s Holdings Corporation (FRAN)
Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE)
Mattress Firm Holding Corp. (MFRM)
Imperva, Inc. (IMPV)
Greenway Medical Technologies, Inc. (GWAY)
Vocera Communications, Inc. (VCRA)
Tesoro Logistics LP (TLLP)
Oiltanking Partners, L.P. (OILT)
InvenSense, Inc. (INVN)
Clovis Oncology, Inc. (CLVS)
WageWorks, Inc. (WAGE)
EPAM Systems, Inc. (EPAM)
Nationstar Mortgage Holdings Inc. (NSM)
FX Alliance Inc. (FX)
CVR Partners, LP (UAN)
Bazaarvoice, Inc. (BV)
Jive Software, Inc. (JIVE)
Brightcove Inc. (BCOV)
Caesars Entertainment Corporation (CZR)
Acquity Group, L.L.C. (AQ)
Golar LNG Partners LP (GMLP)
Delphi Automotive PLC (DLPH)
Yelp Inc. (YELP)
Vantiv, Inc. (VNTV)
Ignite Restaurant Group, Inc. (IRG)
Laredo Petroleum Holdings, Inc. (LPI)
ChemoCentryx, Inc. (CCXI)
Tudou Holdings Limited (TUDO)
Roundy’s, Inc. (RNDY)
Bankrate, Inc. (RATE)
Chefs’ Warehouse Holdings, LLC (CHEF)
Rose Rock Midstream, L.P. (RRMS)
Inergy Midstream, L.P. (NRGM)
American Capital Mortgage Investment… (MTGE)
Cempra Inc. (CEMP)
Audience, Inc. (ADNC)
Retail Properties of America, Inc. (RPAI)
Enphase Energy,A Inc. (ENPH)
Manning & Napier, Inc. (MN)
Rentech Nitrogen Partners, L.P. (RNF)
Sagent Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SGNT)
ExactTarget, Inc. (ET)
Proofpoint, Inc. (PFPT)
Rexnord Corporation (RXN)
Infoblox Inc. (BLOX)
Mid-Con Energy Partners, LP (MCEP)
GSE Holding, Inc. (GSE)
EverBank Financial Corp (EVER)
NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)
Angie’s List, Inc. (ANGI)
Caesarstone Sdot-Yam Ltd. (CSTE)
STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG)
Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MACK)
Tumi Holdings, Inc. (TUMI)
Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. (FET)
Midstates Petroleum Company, Inc. (MPO)
AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT)
Select Income REIT (SIR)
Millennial Media, Inc. (MM)
Verastem, Inc. (VSTM)
Fusion-io, Inc. (FIO)
RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)
MRC Global Inc. (MRC)
The Carlyle Group, L.P. (CG)
Home Loan Servicing Solutions, Ltd. (HLSS)
The Active Network, Inc. (ACTV)
Western Asset Mortgage Capital… (WMC)
Apollo Residential Mortgage, Inc. (AMTG)
Sanchez Energy Corporation (SN)
Tilly’s, Inc. (TLYS)
Edwards Group Limited (EVAC)
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (ACRE)
Bonanza Creek Energy, Inc. (BCEI)
Wesco Aircraft Holdings, Inc. (WAIR)
American Midstream Partners, LP (AMID)
Memorial Production Partners LP (MEMP)
Responsys, Inc. (MKTG)
Regional Management Corp. (RM)
M/A-COM Technology Solutions Holdings,… (MTSI)
Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. (UBNT)
Envivio, Inc. (ENVI)
Oaktree Capital Group, LLC (OAK)
SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC)
Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS)
PetroLogistics LP (PDH)
TMS International Corp. (TMS)
Erickson Air-Crane Incorporated (EAC)
Carbonite, Inc. (CARB)
Teavana Holdings, Inc. (TEA)
Matador Resources Company (MTDR)
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)
Tranzyme, Inc. (TZYM)
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO)
Digital Domain Media Group, Inc. (DDMG)
AVG Technologies N.V. (AVG)
CafePress Inc. (PRSS)
LRR Energy, L.P. (LRE)
Ceres, Inc. (CERE)
Air Lease Corporation (AL)
Yandex N.V. (YNDX)
HomeStreet, Inc. (HMST)
Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO)
Edgen Group Inc. (EDG)
Boingo Wireless, Inc. (WIFI)
Facebook, Inc. (FB)
Renewable Energy Group, Inc. (REGI)
RPX Corporation (RPXC)
Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL)
Pandora Media, Inc. (P)
Preferred Apartment Communities, Inc. (APTS)
GasLog Ltd. (GLOG)
21Vianet Group, Inc. (VNET)
U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. (SLCA)
Box Ships Inc. (TEU)
Compressco Partners, L.P. (GSJK)
Intermolecular, Inc. (IMI)
NetQin Mobile Inc. (NQ)
Solazyme,A Inc. (SZYM)
C&J Energy Services, Inc. (CJES)
Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)
Zynga Inc. (ZNGA)
Zipcar, Inc. (ZIP)
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)
Freescale Semiconductor Holdings I, Ltd. (FSL)
China Zenix Auto International Limited (ZX)
Taomee Holdings Limited (TAOM)
KiOR, Inc. (KIOR)
Vanguard Health Systems, Inc. (VHS)
Horizon Pharma, Inc. (HZNP)
Jiayuan.com International Ltd. (DATE)
Phoenix New Media Limited (FENG)
ZELTIQ Aesthetics, Inc. (ZLTQ)
Renren Inc. (RENN)
Lone Pine Resources Inc. (LPR)
Sequans Communications S.A. (SQNS)
FriendFinder Networks Inc. (FFN)
How they solved their problems.
1. No reception in the rain?
2. Run out of diapers?
3. Cables falling behind your desk?
Harry Newton who is leaving this evening for a family wedding in Ireland, where it’s raining and cold! Instead of sunhats and suncream, we’re packing waterproof jackets and Goretex waterproof shoes.
My next column will be next Monday, June 25.
Muni bonds (VWALX) and American high-dividend yielders like Con Edison and AGNC are working. It ain’t easy. I can do with a few days in the rain.
After messing up today’s headline several times, Todd calls and says I don’t need any help looking like an idiot.
Harry, You should take time to play 9 holes of golf while you're in Ireland. I'm sure it would be an experience that you would never forget. The scenery and the caddies alone would make for a great time.
I bought $SYNC at the beginning of the year and up over 100%, Harry! Have fun in Ireland…go find some snakes:)
Next time you think you may have found such a great winner, please share it with us — before hand. Will it run further? If so, why?
I welcome a week off from your bad financial advice.
I won't ask the obvious question. But what is the answer?
you give me an unintentional laugh.
An obvious answer to your Business Insider on picking from his IPO list. When back east, I frequently pick from Dunkin Donuts – they're delicious!! Buy the stock? No thanks, NYC Mayor Bloomberg may soon outlaw them!
We will miss you while you are gone…maybe you should start a daily “Travel Blog” with pictures. Have a great trip, Harry.
you buy con ed for yield, if you think the 10 year is going to stay in the 1.3 to 1.8 range buy it, but if it goes to 2.2 to 2.5 look out below. look at your chart and put the 10 year on chart in reverse and see what i am talking about. my guess is a 20 drop in the next 6 months.
ED is presently yielding 3.81%. I don't see the 10-year treasury dropping in price and its commensurate yield going into that range for still a couple of years, at the least. Especially given the mess in Europe. I can actually see the yield dropping further as Europe gets worse.
But — if yields do suddenly reverse — then much of what we own will need to be re-thoughts.
There's a lot of decent companies on the IPO list, but stock price action doesn't show it. I would think the adage of “Sell in May, and go away,” still applies, by staying in cash and waiting until September to buy stocks again. I like SPLK, BLOX, and EVER (two “cloud” related companies, and one bank).