In Search of the Perfect Investment

My temptation is to short BlackBerry (RIMM), though I’m clearly a little late in making this call.

First, the news. This week, as its last ditch stand, BlackBerry introduced two new phones — the Z10, without a physical keyboard,  and the Q10 with one.  The phones have received mixed press, except from David Pogue of the New York Times. David loves them. Click here.

But, BlackBerry’s survival is not just how much neat touchie-feelie the new phones have, it’s a function of whether corporate America will accept them. BlackBerry’s appeal to corporations has been that BlackBerry emails are secure and manageable — in contrast to all other emails which float around the Internet unprotected.

The BlackBerry protection comes at a price. If you’re a big company you’ll have a bunch of computer servers, space and people dedicated to BlackBerry emails. That means big expense to maintain the whole thing.

Now comes the rub. The new BlackBerries — th Z10 and Q10 — apparently require completely new software, new servers and new maintenance. And I’m frankly dubious that corporations — BlackBerry’s main customers — will trade up. They won’t see the value. The irony of these two new phones — and all the zillions that BlackBerry has invested in them — is that it may be the definiing moment for corporations. “Dump them. It ain’t worth it any longer — especially when our users want other phones (like iPhones and Samsungs) — not the BlackBerries we have been pushing down their throats for eons.”

How expensive are the new servers? How much work will it take corporate America to support the Z10 and the Q10. I don’t know the answer. All the press so far has been focused on the phones themselves, not the back end. My midnight reading last night did find this one piece from Information Week:

Given that consumerization has led this trend to date, we don’t think the new enterprise features — which are really the only enhancements to the device as all of the consumer enhancements are just copycat functions of iOS and Android — are going to be enough for the end user to stick with BB when facing the decision to change. BES10 is too little too late for most enterprises as the value proposition just isn’t strong enough to overcome all the benefits of the other platforms for end users and RIM didn’t do anything to reduce the costs and complexity associated with a BB infrastructure.

Slingbox performs really well. I’m visiting my favorite daughter, Claire, in Boston.  I’m sitting in her dining room, which has a table and chairs, but lacks a TV set. She claims her dining room “is not a sports bar and her father is not going to turn it into one.”

I’m reading up on BlackBerry. I want to watch my favorite Jon Stewart’s The Daily Show at 11 PM. I log into my Slingbox in New York and watch it over the Internet. It was appropriate since last night’s guest was Al Gore, who invented the Internet — but now has grown so large he can barely fit on my TV:

My $190 Slingbox is worth every penny. Here’s what I wrote about it on Monday.

A Check on Annual Physicals. Are annual physicals worthwhile? The New York Times’ Jane Brody has a piece that begins:

“Go Beyond Your Father’s Annual Physical. Live Longer, Feel Better”

This sales pitch for the Princeton Longevity Center’s “comprehensive exam” promises, for $5,300, to take “your health beyond the annual physical.” But it is far from certain whether this all-day checkup, and others less inclusive, make a meaningful difference to health or merely provide reassurance to the worried well.

Among physicians, researchers and insurers, there is an ongoing debate as to whether regular checkups really reduce the chances of becoming seriously ill or dying of an illness that would have been treatable had it been detected sooner.

No one questions the importance of regular exams for well babies, children and pregnant women, and the protective value of specific exams, like a Pap smear for sexually active women and a colonoscopy for people over 50. But arguments against the annual physical for all adults have been fueled by a growing number of studies that failed to find a medical benefit.

Some experts note that when something seemingly abnormal is picked up during a routine exam, the result is psychological distress for the patient, further testing that may do more harm than good, and increased medical expenses.

In conclusion Ms. Brody writes:

In summarizing their results, the team said, “We did not find an effect on total or cause-specific mortality from general health checks in adult populations unselected for risk factors or disease. For the causes of death most likely to be influenced by health checks, cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality, there were no reductions either.”

What, then, should people do to monitor their health?

Whenever you see your doctor, for any reason, make sure your blood pressure is checked and get new blood tests, if a year or more has elapsed since your last ones.

Keep immunizations up to date, and get the screening tests specifically recommended based on your age, gender and known risk factors, including your family and personal medical history.

And if you develop a symptom, like unexplained pain, shortness of breath, digestive problems, a lump, a skin lesion that doesn’t heal, or unusual fatigue or depression, consult your doctor without delay. Seek further help if the initial diagnosis and treatment fails to bring relief.

 You can read her entire piece here.

The student who flunked his exam

Q1. In which battle did Napoleon die?
* his last battle

Q2. Where was the Declaration of Independence signed?
* at the bottom of the page

Q3. River Ravi flows in which state?
* liquid

Q4. What is the main reason for divorce?
* marriage

Q5. What is the main reason for failure?
* exams

Q6. What can you never eat for breakfast?
* Lunch & dinner

Q7. What looks like half an apple?
* The other half

Q8. If you throw a red stone into the blue sea what it will become?
* It will become wet

Q9. How can a man go eight days without sleeping?
* No problem, he sleeps at night.

Q10. How can you lift an elephant with one hand?
* You will never find an elephant that has only one hand..

Q11. If it took eight men ten hours to build a wall, how long would it take four men to
build it?
* No time at all, the wall is already built.

Q12. How can u drop a raw egg onto a concrete floor without cracking it?
*Any way you want, concrete floors are very hard to crack

Harry Newton, whose daughter uses Foodler to order in food. This morning they rewarded her with a $50 gift card to Amazon, which excited her. Amazon gift cards may be the best “Thank You” present around.

Heh, QCOM bounced up beautifully last night. Lady Luck. I still like QCOM. It’s a holder.