Hussman’s logic is great. But his performance is not impressive, especially in the last several years when he hedged too much (because of his pessimism). Yesterday, I focused on Hussman’s “logic” — Is that it for now? Are we turning down? — yesterday’s column.
This is Hussman’s Strategic Growth Fund. Your own returns would depend on when you got in (and out). Not impressive.
A friend emailed me ” If you invested $10,000 in Hussman’s Strategic Growth Fund in September 2003 you would have $10,286 today.”
Yesterday I freaked. The market dropped again, then bounced back — a good sign.
VIX bounces. Does it foretell much, if anything? The VIX and its strange movements always garners attention on CNBC (BubbleVision). But then everything does. They have a lot of time to fill.
So, now lay it over a chart of the Dow over the same period:
Not much correlation?
Clearly, the name of this game is not to freak out (as I tend to do) but to pick the right stocks, especially when they fall. My recent winners have included BRKA (surprise, surprise), JCP, NRF, RWT, IRWD, WEN, V, TWO and HON.
Three ways to play the explosion in broadband mobile:
I like Qualcomm because Qualcomm wins whoever wins. No stock is better positioned.
From Brian Modoff, Deutsche Bank analyst:
Qualcomm Alert – Here comes the 800lb gorilla
21 February 2013
Qualcomm {Ticker: QCOM.OQ, Closing Price: 65.27 USD, Target Price: 78.00 USD, Recommendation: Buy}
Qualcomm enters the front end
This morning Qualcomm announced a complete front end solution called the Qualcomm RF360. The FEM will combine a number chips, including a Dynamic Antenna Matching Tuner, Envelop Power Tracker, Integrated Power Amplifier/Antenna Switch, all in a packaging solution called an RF POP. Qualcomm’s FEM will support all seven cellular modes, including the 40+ bands in LTE. While we think this is incrementally positive to Qualcomm over the long term, we note that this is their first foray into the front end and do expect the usual challenges associated with first generation development and expect the positive impact to be gradual over the next one to two years as the technology evolves and matures. Still, this is part of QCOM’s integration strategy and will help increase their BOM into mobile devices while creating further challenges for the competition. We reiterate out Buy and $78 price target.
Integration strategy should continue to benefit Qualcomm
One of the primary advantages we see is Qualcomm’s ability to integrate elements of the FEM with the transceiver and baseband modem in order to improve both the performance and battery life of the handset. We think this will be an incremental challenge to competitor merchant baseband vendors trying to gain design wins, as it creates additional technology hurdles to overcome. Further, this is an R&D intensive endeavor creating financial and margin hurdles for the competition as well.
What it means for FEM competitors
For competitors like Skyworks, Avago, Peregrine, RFMD and Triquint, it could quicken the pace of consolidation, especially for the weaker competitors, or in other words, for those that were not already well down a roadmap of digitizing the front end. We continue to believe Peregrine is the strongest of these, as they have over 120 patents issued for UltraCMOS and the design of SOI. Given their lead in the space, we would not be surprised if Peregrine was integrated into another merchant baseband vendor. For the GaAs vendors, this represents a distinct challenge.
A big leap in the FEM, even for Qualcomm
While we knew Qualcomm was working on a FEM solution, and we suggested this in our Peregrine initiation and subsequent notes, we thought that their initial entry would target low-end 3G handsets. We are admittedly surprised that their first generation will include LTE. We still expect them to implement a bifurcated strategy, one for low-end 3G and another for high-end LTE phones, similar to what they do with SOCs. Overall, we think this will be positive to Qualcomm over the long-term, but expect meaningful design traction to take time. We expect to gather more information at Mobile World Congress, where we will be meeting with numerous vendors in the space, including Qualcomm.
Maintain our Buy rating and $78 price target
Our $78 PT is derived from DCF with a discount rate of 11%. Our 11% discount rate is based on a risk-free rate of 5%, beta of 2.0, growth rate of 5%, and equity risk premium of 3%. Downside risks to our PT include macro conditions, consumer spending and wireless capex trends, and 3G adoption trends.
CHECK. CHECK. CHECK. I’m so ecstatic. Yesterday I found this great gadget.
You own an ultrabook or MacBook Pro which doesn’t have an Ethernet port. Get this adapter which makes a USB 3.0 connector to create an Ethernet connection. This is handy for conference rooms or hotel rooms that only provide a wired connection to the Internet. The adapter requires a one-dime driver installation. $49 at Amazon here.
Within ten mlliseconds of publishing my brilliant “find,” a reader says it’s $39… Then, my friend Dan, says “It’s $29 at your local Apple store.”
First time for me that Amazon didn’t have the lowest price.
Check. Check. Check.
Semi-amusing.
The story of the Texas zipper
The story of the zipper
In a crowded city at a busy bus stop, a woman who was waiting for a bus was wearing a tight leather skirt. As the bus stopped and it was her turn to get on, she became aware that her skirt was too tight to allow her leg to come up to the height of the first step of the bus.
Slightly embarrassed and with a quick smile to the bus driver, she reached behind her to unzip her skirt a little, thinking that this would give her enough slack to raise her leg.
Again, she tried to make the step only to discover she still couldn’t. So, a little more embarrassed, she once again reached behind her to unzip her skirt a little more.
For the second time, attempted the step, and, once again, much to her chagrin, she could not raise her leg. With little smile to the driver, she again reached behind to unzip a little more and again was unable to make the step.
About this time, a large Texan who was standing behind her picked her up easily by the waist and placed her gently on the step of the bus.
She went ballistic and turned to the would-be Samaritan and screeched, “How dare you touch my body! I don’t even know who you are!’
The Texan smiled and drawled, “Well, ma’am, normally I would agree with you, but after you unzipped my fly three times, I kinda figured we were friends.”
Harry Newton, who notes that you can’t read the Harpers Magazine fascinating and brilliant article on fracking in North Dakota — unless you’re a subscriber. To read it now, click here. Meantime, you MUST read Time Magazine’s cover story on our nation’s wonderful medical health system. It’s a huge 36-page article called “Bitter Pill: Why Medical Bills are Killing us.” Click here.
The Time Magazine article will scare anyone to be healthy….
Since Obama Care My employer has changed the annual health care choice offerings from several HMO’s and PPO’s to either an HSA or HRA.
Both options offer less coverage for much higher cost.
I now pay 20% more to cover just myself than I did with the HMO for the whole family and my deductible has quadrupled. What lovely progress… Can’t afford to not have insurance and still can’t afford to get sick….
Your government at work. Or as a great president once said, “What are the scariest words in the English language? ‘Hi, I’m here from the government to help you’.” Obamacare is going to get much worst from a health care viewpoint, to say nothing of costs…to you and to the state and federal governments. That will force yet further reductions in medical treatments available, and in new drug and treatment developments. Do we really want the 3rd rate system of England?
VIX is fine as a vague, almost amorphous, indicator. But it is fickle and often lagging.