The commodity boom is over. I’m praying you’re no longer in gold.
Gold, silver, copper and oil are all way down. The only one that’s up is iron ore –now around $130 a ton. And according to BHP, it’s coming down, too. The cause? Allegedly China is slowing down. I don’t see that. That “explanation” is too easy. More probable is what mining gurus have explained to me a zillion times: When prices go up, miners open more mines and extend their existing ones. They increase capacity. It’s easier to do that these days because of new technology. This increases supply which then drops prices. Everything I’ve read, seen and heard in recent months suggests a massive increase in new mines, new capacity, new mining machinery. Mine output is skyrocketing. Demand isn’t. Which means, according to Harry, Stay away from miners and commodities.
Mark Twain claimed a mine was “a hole in the ground owned by a liar.”
Which brings me to Australia, the classic mining economy. The Aussie dollar, of which I own too much, is on the skids:
Since most of my money there is in short-term CDs, there’s nothing I can do for several months — unless I choose to “hedge” my position by shorting the Aussie dollar against the Yankee dollar. Which is not a bad idea. While I’m playing forex (which I admit I’ve never done and know nothing about), I maybe should consider shorting the Japanese Yen:
Amazing stuff. For all our problems in the US — from a dysfunctional Congress to a too-slowly recovering economy, we’re still doing better relative to everyone else. And that’s what this stuff is all about. Relative. If my Aussie loses more than 4.75% this year (which is the interest I’m earning on my Aussie CDs), then I will have been better off buying U.S. treasuries which pay nothing. Go figure.
Will the market keep gong up? Yes, if this chart, from Business Insider, continues:
Writes Business Insider:
We’ve been posting this chart for ages, and been marveling forever at how beautiful it is, and it just never ceases to amaze us.
The relationship between initial jobless claims (red line) and the S&P 500 (blue line) has held remarkably strong for years now.
Initial jobless claims hit a brand new post-crisis low yesterday, and of course, the S&P 500 is making brand new highs.
Showing this chart is the perfect counterpoint to anyone saying that this is all a “Fed-driven” market and that there’s no real-economy improvement to back it up.
Of course, no one — and that includes me — knows. But I do know two things:
First, this is not the time to be buying stocks on margin. Any time you buy something with borrowed money you run the extreme risk that the lender will call your loan at precisely the worst time — like when it blips down.
Second, this is not the time to be selling high-flying stocks short. GMCR, LULU, CMG and TSLA have heavy short positions. But are now being hit with a classic short squeeze. shorting is not a game to play in this market. Don’t.
Mark your calendar. Next year’s New York City Sohn Conference is May 21, 2014. I’ll be there.
When your Outlook won’t send emails. I’m sitting in the palatial Avery Fisher Hall at the Sohn Conference. The Hall has free WiFi, which is not as good as curing childhood cancer, but better than a slap in the belly with a cold fish. I log on and open Outlook. My emails flood in. I try to reply. They stick in my Outbox like glue, gong nowhere.
You will encounter the same problem in hotels and some public WiFi places. The reason your Outlook won’t send is the company providing the Internet service has decided that you are likely to abuse them and send out a milllon spam emails while you are connected to their service. Of course, this is nonsense. But some IT people are paranoid.
There are five solutions:
1. Use webmail to send your messages — e.g. Gmail.
2. Use SMS to send short messages. They go over the cell network, not the free, semi-useless WiFi.
3. When you check in, ask your hotel’s ISP for their SMTP address. It will be something like smtp.webservices.net
4.. Carry a MiFi unit with you. Verizon has a good one. You’ll pay $50 a month, approx. But you’ll also get WiFi where there is no WiFi.
5. Use the Personal Hotspot feature on your new smartphone.I’ve found Android smartphones have better personal hotspots than the iPhone.
That’s it. Just note: There’s no way that fiddling with your Outlook email settings will work. Don’t even try.
Dumb. Dumb. Dumb. You cannot photograph people with a point-and-shoot camera. I tried last night with Canon’s G1X, a high-end $500 point-and-shoot (that I paid $600 for). The problem with them all is called “shutter lag.” Hit the shutter button. By the time the damn thing goes off, the kids have stopped smiling and have turned away. This kid is actually attractive.
Check. Check. Check. I bought a new screen for a laptop. It was “defective,” I claimed. In fact it wasn’t. It had come with a thin plastic protective sheet, which had markings on it. Check. Check. Check.
How long does it take to instal a new screen on a laptop? About five minutes — the second time.
Favorite ads from long, long ago. These are actually real.
Harry Newton who loves his children, but dislikes tofu. Any suggestions? After extensive research, son Michael is buying a new Subaru Forrester. He needs the car because he put his last Subaru (a 2000 Outback) into a ditch on a dirt road by driving way too fast. About 40,000 Americans die each year on the road. Please Michael, ease up a little. I love you.
Tofu’s flavor is dependent on its seasonings or marinade if you freeze and thaw tofu, this works best with extra firm tofu, it becomes more absorbent which it turn gets more of your marinade inside..
Pass on the Sohn Conference and instead save your money to fly to next year’s Berkshire meeting. I’ve been to both and the latter is a million times better.
Nearly all open networks block originating SMTP. If they don’t, they do indeed turn into SPAM distribution cesspools. This isn’t even done deliberately by equipment operators. There are enough infected PCs doing this in the background.
The easiest solution to this is to force SMTP to be authenticated (and encrypted). Most ISPs do this now and will not allow SMTP traffic without this. If you’re generating SPAM, your account is locked.
Open wireless generally means you do not have a relationship with the network operator, therefore no credentials to use SMTP.
If your ISP doesn’t allow authenticated SMTP usage outside their network, it’s really an outdated practice.
The easiest solution to this is to make sure your home router supports VPNs, better yet, SSL VPNs. With an SSL VPN you should have fewer problems on open networks, and your traffic will appear to originate from your home carrier’s network.
With consumer devices, all your traffic will go through your home router this way, so you’ll incur a penalty. In other words, you’re in CA hitting Google – the traffic is routed to NY. The solution is to let the email sit in the outbox, then bring up the VPN to flush it out.
Yep…shutter lag will kill any shot.
The Aussie dollar…A person would think with all the pretty woman and fields of gold it would be better there.
That’s a long discussion. Buy me a cup f coffee next time you’re in New York and I’ll explain my logic for preferring here.
Why are you going back to the Sohn conference next year. It doesn’t seem like you took away much except for pure enjoyment of listening to speeches from bigwigs. It sounds like something a retired person does when they have nothing to do??
There are still recommendations from this year’s conference which I haven’t written about. I can assure you that this semi-retried person does have a lot to do.
Stir fry onion, mushrooms for 3 min. Then add in Tofu cut in cubes, soy sauce, cooking
wine, chili sauce, oyster sauce, and 1/2 cup water. Simmer for 5 min. You can also throw in shrimp, asparagus together with tofu too. See if you like that. – Peter
Sorry, please add salt and pepper too with onion.
I use the iphone 5 personal hotspot when traveling and it works like a champ.
it works. But not brilliantly. Takes too long to connect. And my computer won’t remember the iPhone’s password.
Try the tofu deep fried…it does not absorb much oil and you may find you like it…I kinda do!
Better. But not steak.Still boring.