In Search of the Perfect Investment

This is a chart of BP over the past ten years. It clearly shows the effects of the Gulf oil spill three years ago:

This is a chart of Exxon Mobil over the same ten years:

BP is yielding 5.06%. Exxon is yielding 2.67%. Cramer had BP’s boss on last night. He was impressive. I buy the argument that BP is moving beyond the Gulf oil spill and is probably worth a flyer.

My friend says he bought BP a couple of years ago. He says “It’s a great stock for dividends and selling covered calls.”

Microsoft Has Now Burned $18 Billion Online. that’s today’s Business Insider headline from this chart:

Business Insider’s story reads:

After steady progress, Microsoft reported a big loss for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2013 in the Online division. It burned $372 million last quarter.

Microsoft was rather positive about the loss, though. Chris Suh, who leads IR, pointed out that it’s a 22% improvement on a year-over-year basis. He attributed the loss to a weak display ad market.

Since 2005, the last time Microsoft had a positive income result for its Online group, it has lost $11.98 billion. If you include the $6.2 billion writedown for aQuantive, the total loss for the Online group since 2005 is a whopping $18.2 billion.

My read on this is different. Isn’t it about time that Microsoft closes its online division and stop the bleed and the management distraction? Here’s Harry on sunk cost:

+ You start a new business, or invest in something (including stocks).

+ You spend $1 million.

+ You lose $1 million.

+ Now what?

+ Invest more money. After all, you already have $1 million in it.

+ Wrong thinking. What you have invested already is “sunk” — gone away, spent, lost.

+ Your only question must be: “What will I earn on another $1 million put into this project?”

+ Am I better off closing the thing down and moving onto something else?

+ And the answer is …. in 99.9% of time, when God closes a door, He (or She) opens a window.

+ The timing on door closing and window opening is always less than a day.

+ You got to have faith to close it down and wait the few hours.

+ There are two good parts to this: First, the nightmare is over. Second, there’s new excitement in the next project.

Boy, was I right about not touching Microsoft? It’s down big in pre-market trading. I should have sold it short. Drat. Time to get rid of Steve Ballmer.

 It’s summer. The Northeast is “enjoying” 100+ heat and 100% humidity. Time to:

+ Clean your condensers — air-conditioners and refrigerators — with a vacuum cleaner and a hose (or both).

+ Replace your AC filters.

+ Check the rubber seal on your refrigerator. Is it leaking?

+ Install blinds and shades. Anything to stop the sun frying you.

This is now the lightest folding bicycle. It’s called Tern Verge X20. It weighs 21lbs with pedals.

I ride a similar folding bike to every meeting, every lunch and every tennis. Because it folds, I can put it in closets, check it with hotel bell captains and put it in the trunks of taxis, when it starts raining. This one costs $3,000. Mine cost about half that, but weighs a little more. Little folding bikes with 20″ wheels ride just as well as big bikes with 26″ wheels. For more on this bike, click here.

Great PT Barnham quotes for the weekend

“Nobody ever lost a dollar by underestimating the taste of the American public.”

“There’s a sucker born every minute.”

“The noblest art is that of making others happy”

“I don’t care what you say about me, just spell my name right.”

“Unless a man enters upon the vocation intended for him by nature, and best suited to his peculiar genius, he cannot succeed.”

“Never give a sucker an even break.”

“Opinions are like assholes; everyone’s got one.”

Harry Newton whose daughter, Claire, had an eventful morning. She drives out of her Boston garage. Her path is blocked by a drunk passed out on her street. She goes over to him, taps him on the shoulder. He wakes up, saying something about “Needing to get back to Laconia, New Hampshire.”  She’s a lawyer. And a good one, too. She negotiates her first deal of the day. “I’ll give you $2 if you move out of my driveway.” He accepts and shuffles off. She gets into her car, calls her building contractor about today’s work, and relates the story of the drunk. The contractor, who is Boston-Irish, replies, “That’s our new carpenter Tom. He didn’t want to be late to work at your place this morning.”

If I had a penny for every funny story my wonderful daughter tells me, I’d be rich beyond my wildest dreams. Maybe, with her stories, I already am. This is my Claire:

I promised I’d transcribe more of the John Paulson interview on CNBC’s Seeking Alpha conference. I didn’t get time yesterday. I will this weekend. I promise. What impresses me about the man is the unconventional ways he finds to turn a handsome profit on the monies in his various hedge funds, e.g. buying cheap undeveloped housing plots in places like California, Arizona and Florida. He owns 30,000 plots making him the biggest owner of housing plots without houses in those states. .. Anyway, more Monday. Promise. You can read and see a tiny bit more here.