Last week, the markets had their worst week in years. It was stomach churning. It’s not intelligent to sell when markets are collapsing. The key is to let your Inviolate Stop Rule kick in. I figure 8% is the right number these days. I kicked out a little — very little. But watching my wonderful portfolio decline by the minute was totally awful, calling into question my intelligence, my manhood but not my tennis — which actually improved by dent of playing a 17-year old girl who hits as hard as Serena.
This week, I’ll play by my Stop Loss Rule, and some gaming instincts. My friends are buying puts to protect their downside. If something becomes ridiculously cheap, I’ll buy it.
VectorVest has issued a “confirmed down.” Like all of us, they’re not spot-on with each stock they pick, but they are very good at picking major market calls. Some of their latest words:
SUMMARY: With three red lights, the Color Guard is Bearish. With the Price of the VVC moving lower for two consecutive five-day trading periods and the BSR below 1.00, we have a C/Dn situation.
The Price of the VectorVest Composite lost $0.56 per share since last Friday and a Confirmed Dn, C/Dn, signal was issued today, just as we expected. Although we discussed this possibility last week, it is amazing how many analysts, commentators and professional investors seem to have been caught by surprise. Of course, the RT Kicker gave us plenty of time to prepare for this downturn by turning bearish on August 7th. Given the weak retail picture, the drop in Consumer Sentiment and the craziness going on in Washington, D.C., we could be in for a tough slog over the next few months. With three red lights and a C/Dn situation:
Prudent Investors should not buy stocks at this time.
Aggressive Investors and Traders should play the market to the downside.
There is plenty of good news which I personally see. Local contractors have never been busier. The New York apartment market is going nuts, with prices now well above the 2005-2006 (pre-crash) preaks. Europe is showing signs of growth.
So, we play this by ear, for now. I feel guilty that I haven’t found three unknown, brilliant “buys.”
New privacy rule:
+ Be very careful what you write in an email, post on the web or say on the phone. Every email is read. Every phone call is monitored. Every Facebook entry archived on a gigantic hard drive, somewhere — probably Utah. Remember there are now 17 intelligence Federal agencies monitoring our every utterance.
And the consequences? For most of us, nothing. Unless you’re doing something that passes for insider trading.
But the fear of a 6:00 AM knock on our doors, and all our computers and records be taken away should remain somewhere in the recesses of your mind.
I remember Hungary in 1967. The only place you could talk privately was walking outside along a wide street. Everywhere was bugged. Today every thing is b . And bugged and recorded.
Writers are worrying that all this surveillance contravenes the Constitution. It undoubtedly does. But there’s nothing you can do about it. and there’s no movement in Congress or in the White House to reign it all in. Next year with Obamacare being administered by (of all agencies) the IRS, things will only get worse.
Peggy Noonan agonizes in the Wall Street Journal, but stops short of decrying the monitoring:
+ Noonan: What We Lose if We Give Up Privacy. A civil libertarian reflects on the dangers of the surveillance state. Click here.
The New York Times focuses not on the substance of the monitoring, but on the personalities. Sort of like covering the social scene and the parties on the Titanic:
+ Snowden’s people. For the pair of outsiders who helped Edward Snowden spills the secrets of the American security state, the story has just begun. From the New York Times Magazine. Click here.
I, Cringeley did a piece on Eisenhower, Snowden and the military industrial complex.
Fifty-two years ago, three days before he left office and retired from Washington, U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower addressed the nation on television with what he called “a message of leave-taking and farewell, and to share a few final thoughts.” This came to be called Eisenhower’s military-industrial complex speech and was unlike any other address by Eisenhower or, indeed, by any of his predecessors. You can read the entire speech (it isn’t very long) here, or even watch it here, but I’ve also included below what I believe to be the most important passage:
Until the latest of our world conflicts, the United States had no armaments industry. American makers of plowshares could, with time and as required, make swords as well. But now we can no longer risk emergency improvisation of national defense; we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions. Added to this, three and a half million men and women are directly engaged in the defense establishment. We annually spend on military security more than the net income of all United States corporations.
This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence – economic, political, even spiritual – is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources and livelihood are all involved; so is the very structure of our society.
In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.
We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.
The speech was an extraordinary warning from an old general about the very dangers presented by an overzealous military machine – a warning as valid today as it was back then. Maybe more so.
You can read I, Cringley’s piece here.
Harry Newton who eyes his horoscopes for how he should react to today’s markets. They are published in the Woonsocket Call – and are written by “Holiday Mathis”. Enjoy:
ARIES – (Mar 21 – Apr 19)
Most people would be stressed by today’s financial decisions, but not you. You’ll remain calm and in control, assigning no special power to the dollars and cents in question. It’s just money.
TAURUS (Apr 20 – May 20)
You don’t have to reach to come up with solutions. Your imagination is overflowing with creative fixes. It seems to be an endless resource for entertainment, as well.
GEMINI – May 21 – June 21)
You have romantic mojo at your fingertips, and whomever you touch will feel happier, lighter and more loved because of your attention. You’ll spend most of the day simply spreading good energy.
CANCER (June 22 – July 22)
There is a message in the timing of things. What happens easily and quickly will bring you good fortune. If it’s taking too long, bail. Today, It’s better to do nothing than to stand in a long line for something you’re not sure about.
LEO (July 23 – Aug 22)
Some cry for help at the slightest provocation. You like to deal with things on your own. A rescuer will step in today, whether or not you deem the situation dire. It’s all relative.
VIRGO (Aug 23 – Sept 22)
Families may seem to come as a package deal today. You won’t get to pick and choose from the group you want to spend your time with. It’s all or nothing.
LIBRA (Sept 23 – Oct 23)
Wrong turns are no big deal as long as you quickly try to find the way back to the right road. There is absolutely no sense in staying on a road that clearly is not leading you in the direction you want to go.
SCORPIO (Oct 24 – Nov 21)
You don’t want to hear declarations of love. You’d rather know that someone really appreciates the way you think and operate. Your true love is the one who pays the closest attention to detail.
SAGITTARIUS (Nov 22 – Dec 21)
May is your chance to be on stage in some way. You will sell a group on your ingenious idea or clever solution. Improvements in June make your environment attractive and peaceful.
CAPRICORN (Dec 22 – Jan19)
As long as you’re making plans, you may as well include your most capable, generous and talented friends. They will contribute unexpected nuances and create memories in the process.
AQUARIUS (June 20 – Feb 18)
Holding on too tightly to an idea in your head of what will make you happy might prevent you from seizing the opportunity for even greater happiness, the likes of which you’ve never conceived. Stay open.
PIECES (Feb 19 – Mar 20)
Even if you are the only one who is limiting you, self-limitation can be the hardest to overcome. So talk through your situation with a friend who might shed light on the part that is so familiar to you that you can’t see it.
Thank you to Linda Rawlings for transcribing them electronically from her print newspaper this morning.
