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For 2014, one prediction. Only one.

This arrived yesterday in my inbox.

appalling

Though nonsense, there are intelligent, sane, people who will believe it.

These are the people who stayed out of the stockmarket in 2013, figuring it was over-priced and/or something horrible was about to happen. Obamacare. Congress. Syria. Somalia. Who knows.

There are people who actually make a living crafting words of fear, packaging them into a newsletter and selling for vast amounts of wasted money. They also frequent financial TV networks.

I won’t predict 2014. I can’t. No one can.

But I predict that  those who participate are more likely to benefit than those who don’t.

There are always reasons to stay on the sidelines, playing it safe, afraid of the impending disaster. Afraid to take a  chance.

I see friends stymied by their salaried jobs. Nice salaries.. Nice benefits. But stuck. Not willing to strike out on their own.

2013 rewarded the strikers — the entrepreneurs, the risk-takers, the people who said “I can do it.”

I saw friends make money buying and selling modern (ugly) art. I saw a friend sell $28 million of air rights to a building he bought for $6 million. I saw friends with shares of Google, Visa, MasterCard, Whole Foods, Honeywell, Gilead etc. I saw friends sell their companies for millions and then, promptly, form another one.

There are four elements:

+ Knowledge. You got to have plenty of it. You got to keep learning and studying. I use this column to teach myself.

+ Confidence. You’ve got to have the confidence in yourself to strike out on your own.

+ Control. You can’t benefit big unless you control it. In simple terms, the checkbook better be in your desk.

+ Luck. No one succeeds without luck. You can’t buy it. You can’t wish it. You can only be there when it happens. And it will happen — if you’re there.

 Trillions of wealth was lost during the 2008 downturn. It looked (and felt) like the end of the world. Nobody escaped unscathed.

But 2013 was the year it all ratcheted back. With a vengeance, no less.

The politicians and the economists are talking about “income inequality.” It’s gotten worse, they say. There are millions stuck in dead-end jobs, or worse, without a job altogether. Yet there are also millions who have chosen to control their own destiny and largely have. They call them the one percenters.  I call them the strikers, the ones who struck out on their own.

When I left for America, my boss in Australia told me I’d love the Americans. They were just like me: They substituted enthusiasm for intelligence. I thought it was an insult. It wasn’t. Virtually all the money I’ve made in the U.S. has been made because of my enthusiasm, speed, obsession, love, excitement — all the words they don’t teach at Harvard Business School.

There isn’t a business — new or old — that you can’t improve with better products, nicer service or better prices

And what’s unique about America is that failure is not s stigma. Failure here is a sign you tried and will do better next time. Failure overseas is failure forever.

As we begin a New Year, that’s my simple message:

You can do it. Get in the game.

Do it now.

Apps to smooth your journey. From the New York Times. Click here.

Favorite this week’s New Yorker cartoons:

LastSmoker

Facade

Stars

Harry Newton is in Portland, Oregon visiting his new granddaughter, Eleanor.

HarryWithEleanorsmall

Next column: Monday, January 6, 2014. As you can see, I have my hands full. My first grandchild. Nice way to begin the year. It will be a Happy New Year.

 

20 Comments

  1. Guest says:

    Beautiful girl, Harry! Best column yet.

  2. Sergio Gonzalez de la Fuente says:

    Happy New Year from Chile Harry!! beautiful baby, i wish you the best for this 2014.

  3. Lucky says:

    Happy New Year from Rome Harry…take good care of the beautiful little one…I know you will see she is well taken care of and I pray her future is fulfilled with greatest ease and peace.

  4. Cliff says:

    What a positive, inspirational message, Harry. I feel compelled to point out that nine of 10 new businesses fail. That the odds of success in New York City, due to the expenses involved, are very low. And that many owners of businesses end up filing for bankruptcy. Also, the suicide rate among those who strike out on their own than it is for salaried employees.

    Happy New Year to all.

    • cliff says:

      Should’ve read: “The suicide rate for those who strike out on their own is higher than it is for salaried employees.”

  5. KC Chuck says:

    Happy New Year to you and your families Harry! You will be missed in Times Square this year-lol

  6. Ronald_Reagan says:

    Happy New Year Harry!

    Your new mayor Billy-boy should keep things at least somewhat interesting in 2014….best of luck with that.