In Search of the Perfect Investment

I’ve been reading all Warren Buffett’s chairman’s letters on my new iPad mini retina display. There are some impressive quotes that I want to share. I’ve highlighted the quotes. Now I have to figure out how to get them off the iPad onto this screen. Berkshire Hathaway stock has been desultory in recent weeks, as though the market is expecting poor earnings for 2013.

Costco’s latest annual report is really impressive. I’ll get you some quotes when I figure how to copy stuff from the paper version I’m reading.

The airlines? DAL and even JetBlue are perking up. I never thought I’d look with favor on an airline.

But look at this great boarding pass I got from my new Delta app on my iPhone. You don’t print it. Their machines read it off your iPhone. Delta upgraded me to first, without my asking. I must be a privileged person. If you fly Delta, you must get the Delta app.

The greatest reason to own 3M (MMM). Well not actually. But this is the greatest product if you play tennis and your fingers split. Wrap this around your finger. It’s soft, flexible and just the right sticky. Nexcare is the best. And I’ve tried them all, including the horrid ones made by Johnson and Johnson.

Apple computer or Windows computer? If I were starting from scratch, I would — without hesitation — buy Apple. Windows remains far too unreliable. And  Microsoft seems to have lost its vision for Windows. Is for computers or for tablets? Or a mishmash of both? 

Should you buy a MacBook Air or a MacBook Pro? My son Michael chose the Pro, which his nice employer bought for him. Michael likes the Pro’s keyboard and faster processor.

The Wolf of Wall Street reviewed. I didn’t like the movie. I found it boring, except for the (too frequent) motivation speeches, which you should study because there’s lots you can learn from them. Selling is a critical part of everyone’s job. Here’s James Surowiecki New Yorker review. Read it before you go see the Wolf or American Hustle, both of which are based on true stories —  they actually happened.

Do the Hustle

Con artists are greedy hucksters who sell us dreams that never come true. But Americans have a soft spot for them. Witness the current success of “The Wolf of Wall Street” and “American Hustle,” films that celebrate (sort of) the art of the grift. Somehow, living through two bubbles in which plenty of investors and homeowners were suckered by sugarplum visions hasn’t dampened our appetite for watching spectacles like Christian Bale duping almost everyone he encounters, including F.B.I. agents, and Leonardo DiCaprio hypnotizing a mark into buying worthless stock.

It has ever been thus. The phrase “confidence man” was popularized in an 1849 New York Herald article detailing the arrest of William Thompson, a man of “genteel appearance” who for months had been approaching strangers on the street and somehow persuading them to trust him with their watches until the next day. (Needless to say, they never got the watches back.) Almost immediately, a play titled “The Confidence Man” débuted; Thompson was soon bragging that he was “a great man in the eyes of the world.” In the decades that followed, the con artist became a classic American antihero. The curious thing, as the University of Pennsylvania historian Walter McDougall writes, is that, “far from despising flimflam artists as parasites or worse, American popular culture habitually celebrates rascals as comedic figures.” Think of the movies of W. C. Fields and the Marx Brothers; think of “The Sting” and “Dirty Rotten Scoundrels.” Even bleaker depictions, like David Mamet’s, get us to admire the dexterity with which con artists persuade people to part with their money.

It seems that con artists, for all their vices, represent many of the virtues that Americans aspire to. Con artists are independent and typically self-made. They don’t have to kowtow to a boss-no small thing in a country in which people have always longed to strike out on their own. They succeed or fail based on their wits. They exemplify, in short, the complicated nature of American capitalism, which, as McDougall argues, has depended on people being hustlers in both the positive and the negative sense. The American economy wasn’t built just on good ideas and hard work. It was also built on hope and hype.

In the nineteenth century especially, the line between crook and businessman was fuzzy. Take the building of the American railroads, which both spurred industrialization and laid the foundation for a truly national economy. When the Central Pacific Railroad (the western spur of the transcontinental railroad) was built, the four men who started it, including Leland Stanford, set up an outside construction company in which they were the sole shareholders, and used that company to milk the Central Pacific for tens of millions of dollars in excess construction costs. The building of the Union Pacific Railroad led to the same kind of self-dealing and pocket-lining and reckless overbuilding, while railroad financiers like Jay Gould made enormous sums via stock schemes and dubious takeovers. The result was one of the biggest cons the country has ever seen, with huge losses for investors and huge fortunes for the moguls. Still, we ended up with a national transportation system.

In the twentieth century, the relationship between commerce and con artistry became subtler. Never mind the out-and-out scammers, from Charles Ponzi to Bernard Madoff, or the long history of questionable behavior on Wall Street. Entrepreneurs have skills that are very much like those of the con men. To raise money to start a business, you’ve got to sell an imagined future-a dream. Before building a single car, Henry Ford had to persuade his major supplier to take stock in lieu of cash, because he didn’t have the money to pay for thousands of dollars’ worth of parts.

As the sociologist Alex Preda writes, “Talent for persuasion is key: after all, the public must be convinced to part with their money on the basis of the simple promise that an idea will yield profit in the future.” Successful entrepreneurship involves hucksterism, the ability to convince investors and employees that they should risk their money, their time, and their effort on you. Like a con artist, you’re peddling optimism. As Mel Weinberg (the model for Bale’s character in “American Hustle”) put it in Robert Greene’s book “The Sting Man,” “It’s my philosophy to give hope. . . . That’s why most people don’t turn us in to the cops. They keep hopin’ we’re for real.”

In a dynamic economy, getting people to wager on unknowable (and often unlikely) futures is essential. The greatest business icon of our era, Steve Jobs, was legendary for his “reality-distortion field,” which allowed him to convince people that improbable outcomes were not just possible but certain. Jobs’s endless rehearsals for his public presentations and his scripting of every moment for maximum effect-these are all straight from the con artist’s playbook. So, too, is the sense of conviction he projected. In Weinberg’s words, “Before you sell a deal you have to live the deal. You have to believe in it, because, if you don’t believe in it, you can’t sell it.”

Of course, the fundamental difference between entrepreneurs and con artists is that con artists ultimately know that the fantasies they’re selling are lies. Steve Jobs, often enough, could make those fantasies come true. Still, that unquantifiable mélange of risk, hope, and hype provides both the capitalist’s formula for transforming the world and the con artist’s stratagem for turning your money into his money. Maybe there’s a reason we talk about the American Dream. 

Favorite latest New Yorker cartoons.

Harry Newton who’s pleased that Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert are back from vacation with fun new shows.