In Search of the Perfect Investment

The world has changed. From this morning’s Business Insider:

Bulls beware, the market is getting a little pricey, according to Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin. In a new note to clients, Kostin writes that the “biggest surprise is how many investors expect the forward P/E multiple to expand to 17x or 18x.” The current aggregate forward P/E multiple is at 15.9. While market participants tend to believe a 15x P/E multiple is the long-term average, “The common perception is wrong.” In fact, “Most investors are surprised to learn that since 1976 the S&P 500 P/E multiple has only exceeded 17x during the 1997-2000 Tech Bubble and a brief four-month period in 2003-04. Other than those two episodes, the US stock market has never traded at a P/E of 17x or above.”

In panic, I looked at my portfolio (see right column). My God. 80+% have P/Es above 16.  One is as high as 1,420 — Amazon. ADSK is 48. GILD is 41. Even Costco is 25. And QCOM is 19.

I think Goldman’s message is to be wary of index funds. Stick with stocks you love. Keep looking. APO’s P/E is still under 9. KKR is 14.8. BX is 28. But its earnings are exploding.

 Credit cards are a disgrace. Target got hit big-time Now Neiman Marcus. Overseas cards come with microchips, which, according to Georgetown law professor Adam Levitin, have two key security features:

First, the microchip frustrates easy physical copying of the cards. With our current mag stripe cards, I can copy the information off the mag stripe with a small reader and then use that to make a new card. Not so easy if I also have to copy the information on a microchip embeded in the card. Second, these cards require a PIN to use. The PIN creates what is called two-factor authentication. The first factor is the information on the card itself (from the chip and mag stripe). The second factor is the PIN. Thus, even if my card is stolen, the card isn’t useful without the PIN. Chip and PIN aren’t impossible to crack, but it is a lot harder. And that’s the name of the game in identity theft.

Here we largely don’t have these security features, because our banks are cheap and lazy and losses are absorbed by the retailers — not the banks. (Exception: I have an American Express Platinum which has a microchip, but doesn’t require a PIN to use. It should.)

Tips on Target’s 110 million disaster:

+ We don’t know precisely what the thieves got. Target hasn’t told us. It may not even know.

+ The “key to the kingdom” is your social security number. With it, they can steal your identity. That’s the worst. Don’t release yours to anyone.

+ If you’ve ever shopped at Target, I’d change my credit card number.

+ Do not accept any of the Target,  JCPenney or other email promotions. They’re all bogus. They’re seeking to get more information out of you, to eventually clone your idenity.

+ I never open email attachments — unless I recognize the sender. Sometimes I’ll email back, “Is your attachment OK?” Often even more closest friends will say they never sent it. It is incredibly easy on the Internet to pretend to be someone else.

+ Debit cards that are linked to your bank account are the worst. If I get your debit card and its miserable 4-digit pin , I can clean out your bank account. Good luck getting your money back. Pre-paid debit cards make sense. But my banks don’t sell them. I’m searching.

+ Cash and paranoia have major charms. With cash you spend what you have. And you avoid all the paperwork. A simple life has its charms.

A final mind-blowing note on this. From the Wall Street Journal:

The data breach has crimped Target’s efforts to sign up more customers for its in-house credit and debit card, a key part of its strategy to keep customers from defecting to competitors like Amazon.com Inc. AMZN -0.84% Target has told cashiers to stop asking shoppers if they want to sign up for the card, called the RedCard, because it would be “insensitive,” spokesman Eric Hausman said. Customers can still ask to sign up for RedCards in store or online.

Target has found that shoppers increase their spending at Target by 50% or more after they sign up for the card. It offers 5% discounts on nearly all purchases and, like Amazon Prime, free shipping on purchases from Target.com.

Can you believe 50%!

Five reasons Chris Christie might be lying. Applying the techniques of lie detection to Christie’s press conference yields some very interesting results.

Click here.

The World’s 20 Most Amazing Bridges. One of which is:

For the 19 others, click here.

52 place to in 2014. From the New York Times. The pictures and the videos are exquisite.

8. Quang Binh, Vietnam. Now open: One of the world’s largest caves.

 To see the other glorious 51 places to visit, click here.

Favorite photo:

The Australian Tennis Open begins today. You’ll find it on the usual suspects — but especially the Tennis Channel in the present early rounds.

The blonde and cold, snowy weather. Totally tasteless, but wonderful story.

On a bitterly cold winter’s morning a husband and wife in the North Hills of Pittsburgh were listening to the radio during breakfast.

They heard the announcer say, “We are going to have 8 to 10 inches of snow today. You must park your car on the even-numbered side of the street, so snow ploughs can get through conveniently”. So the good wife went out and moved her car as instructed.

A week later while they are eating breakfast again, the radio announcer said, “We are expecting 10 to 12 inches of snow today. You must park your car on the odd-numbered side of the street, so the snow ploughs can get through.”

The good wife went out and moved her car again.

The next week they are again having breakfast when the radio announcer says, “We are expecting 12 to 14 inches of snow today. You must park. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . “

Then the power went off. . . . . . . .!

The good wife was very upset, and with a worried look on her face she said, “I don’t know what to do. Which side of the street do I need to park on so the snow plows can get through?”

Then, with all the love and understanding in his voice that men who are married to blondes always exhibit, the husband replied,

“Why don’t you just leave the car in the garage this time?”

Harry Newton who gets this nice speed from Verizon FiOS:

But this miserable speed from his upstate phone company’s DSL line:

Speed does make a difference. Faster is better. You might get a speed boost by simply asking. Test the speed of your Internet. Run the test several times. Click here.

The Wolf of Wall Street features a stunning performance by Leonardo DiCaprio. And for that, he earned a Golden Globe last night. What the film doesn’t show you is how well Steve Madden’s stock has done:

And what some of his wonderful shoes look like:

Spam is getting more creative. I received this email this morning:

Good day to you and your family, I hope my email will arrive to you at good time.

My name is Mr. Rami Makhlouf writing from Damascus Syria. I am 43years and i was a politician, a wealthy Syrian businessman and maternal cousin of President Bashar Assad.

Why I’m contacting you is to know if we can have a personal conversation, whatever truth you may brief me will be highly recommended.

Tell me more about your country, how good it will be to invest in your country, Such as buying of properties, or real estate and some tourist places or any profitable investment venture that will yield good profit.

I will like to relocate my family out from Syria, here in my country there is fire on the mountain, i need a foreign partner to enable me transfer my investment capital and then relocate with my family, honestly, i wish to work with you. …

Should I reply, “Any cousin of Assad is a friend of mine…”?

I spent the weekend looking at some desultory private investments. Saying NO so often can be depressing.