In Search of the Perfect Investment

I love brokers. Not because of the stocks they push. But the words they use to push them. I’ve missed many trains that left the station. I’ve avoided loading up my boat. A week ago, my favorite broker (not Todd) breathlessly told me that I should buy Alcoa. I asked why? His priceless answer,   “The smart money was moving on  Alcoa.”

.

This morning, “the smart money”  looks very dumb. This week Alcoa reported earnings. They were less than “the Street” expected. Alcoa delivered one penny. The Street wanted six pennies.  There are two lessons here:

1. Don’t believe bated-breath brokers. If they really knew, they wouldn’t tell you. They’d be rich.

2. Don’t mess with buying stocks during earnings season. It’s far too dangerous.

Google, a favorite stock is pulling back, along with the rest of the market. Percentagewise, it’s not a big fall.

But it looks ominous. It’s had a big run. There is a “support level” around $580 — about 8% below its recent high. My temptation is to sell if it hits $580. I’m worried that we’re due for a general market pullback, and those stocks that have risen the most (like Google) are likely to be hit hardest.

Fortune’s best investment advice: Fortune Magazine interviewed four investment gurus.

Bill Gross: The “new normal” real returns will be 2% to 3% in equities. (But then he’s the bond king. What do you expect him to say?) He likes Brazil and China.

Jeremy Siegel: Go global. Emerging markets will grow faster than us.

Robert Arnott: Go with emerging markets. “Choose wisely.” (He actually said that.)

Jeremy Grantham: China is potentially a severe disappointment. Emerging markets will sell at a handsome premium. We don’t have enough metals. Lithium is scarce.

Not very profound — but indicative of the squirrelly nature of the world we presently live in.

Remember Todd’s three favorite expressions:

1. When in doubt, stay out.

2. Better to be wrong and out, than wrong and in.

3. Cash is King.

Outlook sucks for sending emails, sometimes.

Whether 2003 or 2007, Microsoft’s Outlook frequently locks. No one knows why. Your outgoing email sits stranded in your Outbox. You should always check. Don’t assume because you hit Send that Outlook sent it. There are two things you can do when it gets stuck:

1. Close Outlook and then re-open it. Hit Send/Receive. This might loosen your outgoing mail. And then again, it might not.

2. Hit Work Off-Line. Open your outgoing email. Copy its contents into your Google Gmail account and send it. Gmail is much more reliable. Gmail rocks.

Verizon splendid mobile broadband products.

This is Verizon’s MiFi.

Turn it on. Turn on your laptop. Bingo, you’re on a WiFi connection to Verizon’s broadband network. What’s neat: It’s tiny. It’s a stack of six credit cards. Five laptops can connect to it. It’s your portable single person or group WiFi.  It’s trivial to install. I opened the box early this morning. I was on the Internet in fewer than five minutes. It’s fast, too. I watched several (boring) YouTube videos and the beginning of one (not so boring) porn video on YouPorn. I’m not pushing videos — clean or dirty. I use video sites to test speed. I also tested the unit’s speed — around 900K down and 520K up. The down is slower than my cable modem. But the up is just as fast.  Verizon’s MiFi gadget is $99.99 if you sign for  two-year $39.99 or $59.99 monthly access. Or it’s $299 if you want to pay $15 for a random 24-hours. That’s more pricey than Starbucks, but much more convenient.

Verizon has other choices: A card that sticks into your laptop’s PC Express slot (and will become obsolete when the laptop makers change their specs, as they always do).

A device that fits into your laptop’s USB slot, but which you can’t share with four other people.

A netbook that may or may not be too small for your use but has built-in Verizon broadband mobile access.

All these devices carry the same monthly charges as the MiFi. But none have its flexibility. I’ll write more about MiFi tomorrow.

Harry Newton, who is wondering how hs readers feel about the market today?