Remember Nassim Taleb’s book:
His premise: Sh*t happens. It happens big-time. And you can’t predict it.
Moreover, it’s impossible to prepare for it. But you have to.
Recent sh*t (which no one — and I mean no one — predicted):
+ The 50+% drop in the price of oil. and big falls for copper, iron ore, etc. The Bloomberg Commodities Index is now at a 12-year low.
+ The dramatic ongoing fall in interest rates. My 30-year treasuries rise in price every day! (Go figure.)
+ The recent huge rise in the value of dollar.
+ Today’s decision to loose the Swiss Franc from the Euro. This jumped the value of the Swiss Franc (as much as 41%) and severely hurt Swiss manufacturer’s ability to export. Currencies don’t ever move as much as they’ve been moving recently.
+ My main computer got hit with something horrible — see below. Though Norton Internet Security removed it, there is serious damage and continuing intrusion attempts. I’ve had to move to a back-up computer, which is what I’m using now. Yuch.
Meanwhile, jobless claims have shot up. And things look awful in retailer land.
None of this is great for stocks, though they have opened up this morning (and are now down).
The overarching lessons remain diversification, backups and cash.
Muriel figured my net worth yesterday. Despite 2015’s horror in the stockmarket, I was actually up. Why? One leveraged buyout fund reported that its net worth was up substantially — not something that happens with the fund very often. But I’ll take it. Diversification works.
I am letting my stop loss rule kick in and kick me more and more into cash. My rule is now 10%, which accounts for today’s higher volatility.
Nice news:
+ Paris flashmob of a children’s orchestra. Charming and warm. You’ll love what they play.
For the video clip, click here.
+ Two Americans Complete Free Climb of El Capitan’s Dawn Wall. After 19 days, Tommy Caldwell and Kevin Jorgeson reached the summit of El Capitan’s Dawn Wall in Yosemite National Park, completing a quest that included years of planning and that many considered the most challenging rock climb in the world. They are the first to free climb the 3,000-foot wall in a single expedition, long considered impossible, using only their hands and feet to pull themselves up. Ropes were merely safety devices to break the occasional fall.
+ This picture was taken in Thailand, not outside a U.S. welfare office. Sorry.
+ Uniqlo has a sale on these handsome men’s parkas:
I have several colors. I love these parkas. They roll up into a tiny nylon pouch, which they include.
How it works in high school
A student played high school football in Detroit. He was a great running back, but a really poor student.
At graduation, he didn’t have enough credits but he was a great football star and the students held a rally and demanded the principal give him a diploma anyway. They were so insistent that the principal agreed if Dwayne could answer one question correctly he would give him a diploma.
The one question test was held in the auditorium and all the students packed the place. It was standing room only. The principal was on the stage and told Dwayne to come up. The principal had the diploma in his hand and said, “Dwayne, if you can answer this question correctly I’ll give you your diploma.”
Dwayne said he was ready and the principal asked him the question. “Dwayne,” he said, “How much is three times seven?”
Dwayne looked up at the ceiling and then down at his shoes, just pondering the question. The other students began chanting, “Graduate him anyway!” “Graduate him anyway!”
Dwayne held up his hand and the auditorium became silent. he said, “I think I know the answer. Three times seven is twenty-one.”
A hush fell over the auditorium and all the other students began another chant.
“Give him another chance!” “Give him another chance!”
Harry Newton who got this error message from Norton. Not nice. The intrusion attempts have come hot and heavy this morning. I suspect I’ll have to re-format this computer’s hard disk and replace it with a recent backup. Once this sh*t starts, it never stops.
Harry,
I know you hate it, but you should research the additional security features of Windows 8.1. I have found that I never get infected. You may want to start reading about windows 10. The consumer preview starts next week. Also, don’t open emails from people who you don’t know and don’t open websites you shouldn’t. I also have used Malwarebytes on older versions of Windows with great success.
Harry…I had a problem trying to respond to an email from you yesterday. My computer kept locking-up. Norton did not catch it. I scanned it with MalwareBytes and it caught over 300 pups that it then destroyed . I re-booted my computer and it worked perfectly after that.