Old, dear friends have borrowed a wonderful, charming house in Menton, southeasternFrance near Italy. The skies are azure blue. It’s a perfect 80. I’m sitting under a lemon tree in full bloom. My ThinkPad X201 is balancing on my laptop. In the back is the Mediterranean, with 400 foot pleasure yachts passing by.
I thought my airplane reading would produce a mega investing ideas. I learned Claire Boothe Luce once wrote, “Money can’t buy happiness, but it can make you awfully comfortable, while you’re being miserable.”
I’m not miserable. I’m in Menton, a delightful escape from reality, only 20 minutes from Monaco and its casino — a real one. Not a euphemism for a stock exchange.
I learned that Goldman Sachs has gone negative. Yesterday GS put out a piece it called, “Double Dip, Double Up, or None of the Above?” Normally Goldman is pretty positive. This is curious. Its strange conclusion:
In the meantime, heightened uncertainty will contribute to heightened volatility. As we mentioned in our January 31st piece, we do not underestimate the uncertainty we face; we also recognize that this uncertainty results in a “Washington risk premium” that will ebb and flow based on the latest pronouncements from policy makers. And as we mentioned then, we believe that our clients should only be fully invested at their strategic allocation if they can tolerate heightened uncertainty and greater volatility. This is especially true now that the uncertainty has increased even further.
I don’t know where the recession is. I counted over 60 private jets parked at the Nice Airport.
Harry Newton,who read books on Delta on his ThinkPad X201 and his birthday present iPad. A lot lighter than carrying heavy paper books. Delta was remarkably good. But watch out. Delta’s frequent flyer miles expire about a week before you earn them.
That’s it. I’ll see you next Wednesday. Then I’ll have sufficient ideas to make us all rich beyond our unreasonable dreams. Maybe. Now if only I can figure why France won’t let me send email from Outlook.
I finally came to your site! Sorry for the delay. DeWitt Clinton HS was busy the last couple of weeks after you left. Good to see you are doing okay!? …Over 60 private jets parked? Wow, they just might be financially okay 🙂
Your commentary are always well written…when you get back I am going to ask you some thought-provoking questions. I still have your materials.
Anyone who thinks that, in the midst of the current economic problems besetting the world, there isn't fantastic wealth in the hands of a fortunate few, wasn't in Cannes last month and didn't see the fleets of yachts in the harbor there. (Of course, the ships may have been moored while their owners were on land, desperately scraping up euros for the latest loan payment.)
Harry-the jets are also in Kona for the July 4th holiday, and enjoying their exclusive retreats, no doubt. Scary about GS turning negative; couple of execs building hideaways on island. Menton is gorgeous, n'est ce pas?
http://menton-daily-photo.blogspot.com/
Menton is gorgeous. But hot and humid.
GS has turned negative. But Russell has turned positive. I'd go with Russell for now.
Harry, France probably isn't letting you send email from Outlook because Outlook is configured to use your SMTP service provider at home, using standard ports (like 25). Your internet service provider in France is most likely blocking traffic to standard SMTP not on their network. This is a fairly typical practice intended to reduce SPAM. (Somewhat effective in containing botnet activity)
Checking your US providers tech support site will likely yield a clue about options. Usually, they run SMTP on a non-standard port, such as 26.
Harry,
How do you know the jets weren't parked and idle??
They were parked. I'm guessing they belonged to rich people and rich corporations. I bet there are cheaper places to park corporate jets than the Nice Airport.
Maybe it is like the specious argument that folks are making regarding the “great news” that corporations have more cash than ever. That cash is bad news because it means it is not tied up in working capital and hence, is not growing the business…enjoy France. Have some wonderful wine for all of us!
A lot of people are big-time positive on firms with caches of cash. I agree with you. It usually isn't growing the business. It's sitting around earning nothing, or being invested in “safe” things like auction rate preferreds. Remember that disaster? Corporations still have hundreds of millions of dollars of “cash” tied up in ARPs. And no way of ever getting their money out.
And those were the planes that weren't clogging the runways at Durban International:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/45cb6134-8a07-11df-bd…
“The VIPs heading for the semi-final by jet were Spain’s King Juan Carlos, South African President Jacob Zuma, actor Leonardo DiCaprio and socialite Paris Hilton.”
As far as scheduled, commercial flights (the kind that Harry takes):
“The BA pilot, who held his plane for around 45 minutes above Durban in the vain hope of getting a landing slot, told passengers he had no choice but to take the plane to Johannesburg because the plane’s fuel was starting to run low.”
I don't. On the other hand, I didn't see any “For Sale” signs on the front stairs.