I read too much that is depressing — Egypt, Brazil, Europe, Russia, China, (and the Canadian and Australian dollars). I know that the U.S. is big and doing OK. And I know stockmarkets here are up today, Friday. But I worry. No one can predict the next recession, except we seem to be overdue for one. It’s hard to believe that if something goes awry, Washington will be able to deal with it. We’ve run out monetary stimulus — interest rates and quantitative easing. And the Washington Congress gridlock seems incapable of fixing some bridges, roads, airports, subways, and providing some nice jobs doing the work.
By nature I’m an optimistic guy and I still own some stocks. But I’m very attracted to cash. I wish I could find some nice warm place to put it, other than:
I am being inundated by new companies who want money and promise Facebook/Google returns. But my days of investing in young, small companies are drawing to an end. I am increasingly turned off skimpy PowerPoint decks that forget minor things like:
+ Marketing and sales plans.
+ A detailed look at the competition and what they offer.
+ An exit plan — like when and how am I likely to get my money back. (I may not be alive.)
Every deck seems to tell me how large the addressable market is (huge), and how smart the executives are (very smart).
Whatever happened to written documents, detailing risks, strategies, ambitions, etc.? Why do I have to keep asking the same questions?
You can sort of save $100 on an Apple Watch. B&H Photo is selling it at $50 less than Apple and throwing in a $50 store gift card. Click here.
Lots of ways to speak to your iPhone — and save typing and time. There’s Siri from Apple which comes with the iPhone. There’s Google. And now there’s Hound. Download them from the Apple App Store and try them. Personally I prefer Siri, but Google is pretty good. Hound has potential.
Answers we wish we had thought of.
It was mealtime during an airline flight.
‘Would you like dinner?’, the flight attendant asked John, seated in front.
‘What are my choices?’ John asked.
‘Yes or no,’ she replied.
A flight attendant was stationed at the departure gate to check tickets.
As a man approached, she extended her hand for the ticket and he opened his trench coat and flashed her.
Without missing a beat, she said, ‘Sir, I need to see your ticket, not your stub.’
Paulette was picking through the frozen turkeys at the grocery store but she couldn’t find one big enough for her family.
She asked a stock boy, ‘ Do these turkeys get any bigger?’
The stock boy replied, ‘No ma’am, they’re dead…’
A truck driver was driving along on the freeway and noticed a sign that read: Low Bridge Ahead.
Before he knows it, the bridge is right in front of him and his truck gets wedged under it.
Cars are backed up for miles. Finally a police car comes up. The cop gets out of his car and walks to the truck driver, puts his hands on his hips and says, ‘Got stuck, huh?’
The truck driver says, ‘No, I was delivering this bridge and I ran out of gas.’
Harry Newton, who has come down with a cold in Paradise (Indian Wells, California). That cold is affecting his outlook on life.
Watch out for those stop losses. Love and hope are not a substitutes for taking your losses and moving on. Better yet, if you’re up on a stock, but you don’t quite know why, take some profits. No one went broke taking a profit, even a small one. I do like HA, ALK, VZ, T and SGOL. My biggest holding of them is VZ.
Where are you Harry? Daily reader here, need my fix. Hope your getting your yearly flu shots. Hope you are doing well:)
Jason,
It appears that Harry has either died or retired from blogging. Either way it’s for the best.
Mr. Newton, I am NOT all that sophisticated an investor. I have never trusted the stock market (seems that all the real money is made before I would ever get a chance to invest), and while I ONCE had an unexpected windfall I have for the most part invested in vehicles over which I had some measure of control. In this tumultuous economic environment I continue to see opportunity in places where amounts of cash, applied in lesser blocks over a broader base, can generate a solid rate of return. Examples would include A/R Factoring, Contract Financing, Leasing, and Equipment Purchase and Lease-back, all of which can generate significant return on investment. As an accountant/business consultant I have brokered many deals in these niche market areas, to the mutual benefit of the lender, borrower, and broker.
I own some commercial real estate, but ONLY because I also have direct influence over the business that occupies that real estate. Residential real estate – specifically rental apartment blocks with a minimum of 6 units – also continue to be a solid investment. Then there is the ever expanding need for Assisted Living and Long Term Residential Care facilities. With significantly depressed real estate prices at the moment, and an available pool of construction labor, now would be a good time to invest in such projects.
In such a targeted investment environment risk is more a function of management rather than chance. No matter the ups and downs of the economy all the foregoing are viable investments PROVIDED THAT there is a solid and competent management structure in place.
With that said, it is obvious that such niche market investing would not be practical for retired investors who just want to park their money and not manage it directly. It would be interesting to assemble a group of like-minded investors to pool funds and engage an investment manager to explore the opportunities in this environment.
Regards, Alex Tessmann
Hi Harry, Sorry to hear about your cold. Your very short intro is however ‘on the mark’ and these sentiments are shared by many potential investors. You can count me in. The psychological hurdle is of course exacerbated by (Australia) low interest rates on deposited funds (1.8%), a Stock exchange more unstable than the shifting sands of Arabia and a property market where the asking price is pegged to the returns offered by banks. This means buying high and being forced to await for the upside; many, many years into the future. I also dabble with a few shares (ASX) but utilizing Put Options to secure income. i.e. BHP that I bought @ $17.70 issued Put @ $19.01 and a second lot @ $21.01 until March 2017. Immediate return in cash, average 8%, Plus add dividends, etc. Even if I have to sell the shares at these pegged prices my year’s return will be approx. 14%. Get well and nice chating with you. Harry C (Sydney)