In Search of the Perfect Investment

UPDATE
 This morning's email was caused by an out-of-date plug-in which didn't work with the new version of WordPress.
 I updated the plug-in (allegedly). So I'm trying again.

The lesson is clear:

If it works, don't mess with it.

It feels bad. But, in the greater scheme of things, the recent pullback is not horrendous. Year to date we’re still up 3.6%.

Still, the election is next Tuesday. Uncertainty and fear reign. And the chances of a Trump victory have increased.

From Business Insider:

Mark Cuban, an outspoken detractor of Donald Trump, went on CNBC on Tuesday to elaborate on his bearish view of what could happen to the stock market should Hillary Clinton lose the election.

“If Trump wins, I’m already hedged… I’ve put on the biggest hedge I’ve ever put on against all my equities and interest-bearing bonds.”

Cuban went on to say that a “stupid and offensive” Trump remark during his presidency could set off geopolitical discord and reverberate across global markets.

“The thought that once he was elected or if he’s elected that he’s just going to keep quiet and stay scripted. There’s no chance that happens,” Cuban said. “The levels to which he would be corrupted by that power are just beyond conception right now.”

In addition to hedging (e.g. buying put options on the S&P), another approach is to place some low limit buy orders at prices at least 10% below where we are now. The concept is that a flash crash may happen and allow you to pick up favorite stock cheaply. Here are some samples:

AAPL $92
AMZN $700
FB $120
GOOGL $700
HD $112
HON $100
MSFT $49
NFLX $110
VZ $42

Mr. Trump has released his “Contract With The American Voter“. A little of it makes sense. Much of it is horrifying. Most of it would not happen, since it would require Congress going along. From Trump:

What follows is my 100-day action plan to Make America Great Again. It is a contract between myself and the American voter – and begins with restoring honesty, accountability and change to Washington.

Therefore, on the first day of my term of office, my administration will immediately pursue the following six measures to clean up the corruption and special interest collusion in Washington, DC:

+ FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;

+ SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);

+ THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;

+ FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;

+ FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;

+ SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.

On the same day, I will begin taking the following 7 actions to protect American workers:

· FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205
· SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership
· THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator
· FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately
· FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job- producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.
· SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward
· SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure

Additionally, on the first day, I will take the following five actions to restore security and the constitutional rule of law:

· FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama
· SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States
· THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities
· FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won’t take them back
· FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.

Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration:

1. Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate.

2. End The Offshoring Act. Establishes tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the U.S. tax-free.

3. American Energy & Infrastructure Act. Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years. It is revenue neutral.

4. School Choice And Education Opportunity Act. Redirects education dollars to gives parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice. Ends common core, brings education supervision to local communities. It expands vocational and technical education, and make 2 and 4-year college more affordable.

5. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. Fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and lets states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.

6. Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act. Allows Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivizes employers to provide on-side childcare services, and creates tax-free Dependent Care Savings Accounts for both young and elderly dependents, with matching contributions for low-income families.

7. End Illegal Immigration Act. Fully-funds the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall; establishes a 2 -year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, and a 5-year mandatory minimum for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.

8. Restoring Community Safety Act. Reduces surging crime, drugs and violence by creating a Task Force On Violent Crime and increasing funding for programs that train and assist local police; increases resources for federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to dismantle criminal gangs and put violent offenders behind bars.

9. Restoring National Security Act. Rebuilds our military by eliminating the defense sequester and expanding military investment; provides Veterans with the ability to receive public VA treatment or attend the private doctor of their choice; protects our vital infrastructure from cyber-attack; establishes new screening procedures for immigration to ensure those who are admitted to our country support our people and our values

10. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act. Enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics.

 Our wonderful planet. From Harper’s Magazine

+ A man in Portland, Maine, was arresting for obstructing traffic while dressed as an evergreen tree.

+ A man in Saudi Arabia filed for divorce two hours after his wedding when he learned that his wife had shared their wedding photos on Snapchat.

+ Authorities in Chechnya began sending representatives to monitor weddings to ensure no “nontraditional” behavior, including firing guns and brides dancing, took place.

+ In Iceland, thousands of women left their jobs at 2:38 P.M., with 14 percent of their workday remaining, to protest the country’s 14 percent gender pay gap,

+ The former personal sushi chef for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that Kim had bragged about drinking ten bottles of Bordeaux wine in one evening,

+ A 20-year-old woman in Texas was arrested after she rear-ended a police car while trying to take a topless selfie,

+ Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said that he had promised God he would stop cursing while on a flight from Japan. “I heard a voice telling me to stop swearing,” he said, “or the plane will crash.”

+ Because of a number of threatening clown sightings around the world, McDonald’s will stop displaying Ronald McDonald in public.

+ Parents in Oregon were advised to check their children’s Halloween candy for edible marijuana.

Harry Newton, who apologizes for sending a messed up blog yesterday. The clean original is here. The right hand column I refer to is on the web site, not the emailed portion.

Personally I don’t think Trump will be elected. I’m certainly not voting for him. But Hillary’s ongoing email problems are a concern. I’m sure that FBI director, James Comey, is an honorable man! Just as Brutus was.