In Search of the Perfect Investment

There are three schools of thought:

1. Everything Trump said was for being elected. He’ll be more practical. He won’t make a trade war with China or Mexico.

2. He’ll do everything he said, and more, though doing them will take longer than the first 100 days.

3. You can’t predict anything. We’ll find out in January, when he ascends his golden throne. Meantime, bubblevision will be full of “experts” making predictions. My favorite stupid economist, Larry Summers, who nearly bankrupted Harvard when he was there as president, was mouthing off today on Bloomberg TV. He made no sense.

There are, however, two certainties.

+ He will borrow hugely and build infrastructure. He loves building.

+ He will spend hugely on the military.

Hence stocks like CAT and MLM make sense for infrastructure building.

And LMT, BA, GD,  NOC and RTN make sense for defense spending.

There is unclarity: He will allow monies sitting overseas to come back to the U.S. for a 10% tax — not 35%. I don’t know what that will mean. For example, Apple has got the most money overseas. But Apple is not short of money. They’re just woefully short of ideas of what to do with it.

Have I told you about my Apple Watch. Yesterday afternoon I looked for the time. The face was black. It had run out of battery.

Please explain, what use is a fancy $400 watch that can’t tell the time?

I was right yesterday. It was a big buying opportunity. It’s up again this morning.

I fear for Donald, because he’s unpredictable. And he may do some predictably stupid things. His belief that anything can be negotiated and everyone is overcharging should able to be restrained by his cabinet and Congress.

All about IRR

Their  last two funds did great. This one won’t. That’s my new rule. Moreover they’re charging too much.

I just got a pitch for a new fund that will charge — are you waiting — 2.5% on the capital you committed — not the money they actually called, namely the cash you actually sent them. Also, they’ll charge 20% of everything over a 10% IRR “hurdle rate.”

IRR, as a measurement of investment success s*cks.

Try this: I buy something for $1 and sell it for $2 in 12 months. That a 100% IRR. But, let’s say I sell it for $2 in six months. That’s a 434% IRR.

This IRR encourages funds (and real estate syndications) to sell early. They leap the “hurdle” and get their commission faster.

Things I’ve learned:

+ WAZE is the great car travel app ever. It alerts you to police traps. And diverts you around traffic. But it sucks battery on your iPhone. You need a Mophie or a plug into your car’s cigarette lighter.

+ I love watching pill commercials. I love listening to their warnings. Why would I want that pimple gone when I might kill myself? I’m reading and researching pills and ointments my doctors prescribe. The side-effects are horrible. Feeling better is best done the old-fashioned way — exercise, losing weight, resting (napping), and staying away from bad stuff — like too much booze and awful food.

+ Pope Francis allegedly told a reporter that the Roman Catholic Church will likely never permit women to serve as priests. Now there’s enlightenment.

You need a good laugh. This is hysterical.

The ban has been lifted on tastelessness. 

We elected a new President and legalized weed in a few more states

I smoked that that stuff about 30 years ago and tried it again about 15 years ago. Modern science has made Marijuana so incredibly strong it’s positively dangerous. I guess I’m a crabby old white man!

Harry Newton, who’s going to Portland this afternoon to visit two grandchildren, one of whom — Eleanor — is celebrating her third birthday. I snagged an ultra- cheap fare on Alaska Air (ALK) which has just opened the Newark to Portland, OR route. The plane is full. ALK’s P/E is 10.25% It actually pays a 1.5% dividend yield.

Here’s Eleanor, 3. She doesn’t believe in combs or brushes.

Hence my birthday present to her is this wonderful beanie.

From eBay for $3. Three for three. Perfect Zen.