In Search of the Perfect Investment

Need a reason to buy defense stocks?

Like LMT.

For the full article, click here. 

How does the world’s most profitable hedge fund do it?

It’s called Renaissance Technologies. From today’s Bloomberg:

The fabled fund, known for its intense secrecy, has produced about $55 billion in profit over the last 28 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, making it about $10 billion more profitable than funds run by billionaires Ray Dalio and George Soros. What’s more, it did so in a shorter time and with fewer assets under management. The fund almost never loses money. Its biggest drawdown in one five-year period was half a percent. …

For outsiders, the mystery of mysteries is how Medallion has managed to pump out annualized returns of almost 80 percent a year, before fees. “Even after all these years they’ve managed to fend off copycats,” says Philippe Bonnefoy, a former Medallion investor who later co-founded Eleuthera Capital, a Switzerland-based quantitative macro firm. Competitors have identified some likely reasons for the fund’s success, though. Renaissance’s computers are some of the world’s most powerful, for one. Its employees have more-and better-data. They’ve found more signals on which to base their predictions and have better models for allocating capital. They also pay close attention to the cost of trades and to how their own trading moves the markets.

You can read the full article here.

I upgraded Susan to an iPhone 7 plus.

Moving from her old iPhone 5 is a nightmare. It took me four hours. Your IT department is probably faster. They were two main problems: First, I was dealing with three vendors — Apple, Verizon and Microsoft. Second, none of them can write instructions a normal person can understand or follow.

The iPhone 7 has two pluses: It has a better camera. It’s a faster computer. (But it’s not a faster phone.)

You don’t need one if you have an iPhone 6. Save your money.

If you have a little iPhone 5, the big screen  on the 7 plus will make your grandkids look more handsome.

Tips on upgrading:

+ You must back up what’s on your old iPhone. I prefer using iTunes, rather than Apple cloud. I don’t trust anyone’s cloud with my personal information. Too easy to hack. iTunes works on the Mac and on Windows. I used the Windows version. It has quirks. Apple will want you to upgrade iTunes. That takes eons.

+ Don’t even think about using Verizon’s online instructions. They’re incomprehensible. Call 611 from another Verizon cellphone and have them walk you through getting your new iPhone to be your new cell phone. The key is to have the old one powered down.

+ Don’t forget to turn on WiFi calling. You get great quality calls. But you get mauled on data charges. Thank you Verizon.

+ Buy a screen protector and a sturdy case. The iPhone 7 and 7 plus is slippery. Easy to drop.

I have an iPhone 6. I’m not upgrading.

Meantime, Business Insider reports that analysts are starting to worry about Apple’s future profitability.

Apple’s gross margin on the iPhone has slid from 57.7% in 2009 to 41% today, and it is expected to fall to 39% in 2018, according to Toni Sacconaghi at Bernstein Research.

I worry about Apple’s desultory innovation — its lack of new products. My Apple Watch no longer lasts a day. By afternoon, its screen is dead. I no longer can tell the time. Isn’t that what watches are meant to do?

Go to the third column. Here it is. It’s also in the right hand column. 

Add UNH to that list.

Things learned on the weekend

+ My auxiliary generator stopped working because the battery had “exploded” — blown out its sides. It was only 15 months old. It turns out that a battery that is constantly being trickle charged lasts much less than a car battery which isn’t trickle charged.

+ Always get a service manual or a lesson on what breaks and how to fix it. I now know how to jump start my auxiliary generator. That was useful information when this happened this weekend, and our local utility (NYSEG) lost power. Pretty? But November?

 

+ Buy this $10.49 wireless mouse.

It’s great for reading your laptop in bed. You can surf the web with your hands snugly under the covers. It works on your desk also. No installation needed. Click here.

Please don’t invest in “emerging” countries. EVER. NEVER.

They may emerge quickly,  then they un-emerge  equally quickly, and disastrously.

Remember BRIC? Brazil, Russia, India and China? They were the hot places to invest in only a few years ago.

Brazil is a disaster. Two governors are in jail for corruption. Rio’s public workers haven’t been paid in months.

Russia has Putin, who’s running the world’s biggest kleptocracy. Allegedly, he’s already stolen $200 billion.

India is a total disaster. Don’t even ask me about the venture fund I invested there. One day, I’ll write the story of the Indian manager who responds weirdly to my emails but doesn’t perform worth a damn.

And China? Who knows. It’s rife with corruption, over-borrowing, lousy accounting standards and egregious patent violations.

Meantime, Africa’s largest economy is stuck in recession. Nigeria’s economy (heavily oil-based) shrank 2.24% in the third quarter, making for a third straight quarterly contraction. Don’t talk to me about South Africa. It’s a major disaster under the thief who’s running it  — Jacob Zuma. The man has Zuma has about 20 children, has been married six times but currently has four wives all of whom are on the state’s budget.

My father invested in Mexican bonds paying 13%. He lost almost everything when Mexico devalued. Have you checked the Peso recently?

Today’s choice

Son-in-law is in hospital with a spazamed back and excruciating pain.

No one is sure what caused it. They’re checking. But Dr. Google says lifting heavy weights is the major cause of bad backs. And the biggest major cause is lifting heavy luggage into overhead bins on airlines.

Good news: There are always handsome, strong, young men with solid cores and strong abs who will lift the bag of a kindly, old, infirm geriatric with twinkly eyes — i.e. me.

Harry Newton, who loves the fall. This is grandchild Sophie before the weekend’s 18 inches of heavy snow: