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How Intel could sell for $100 — 2.8 times higher than where it is now. Also, climate weirding in Australia and here.

Had Intel not bought Mobileye, Intel could have given each of its shareholders $3.17 in cash for each share they own — or a 9% bonus — of last night’s $35.57 close.
 Had Intel not bought any companies in the last 10 years, it could have returned at least $9.30 in cash to each of the 4.7 billion shares in its public float. That calculation is just based on the monies it spent to buy companies — not the money it lost on running (also called “ruining”) them after Intel bought them.
Between 2000 and 2017, Intel bought at least 24 companies — they’re listed in Wikipedia — none of which seems to have survived Intel’s famous ability to destroy what it had just bought. (I could be wrong. There may be one, still hanging by a thread. McAfee?)
I have followed Intel’s fortunes for over 40 years. I remember the time that I bought a Toshiba laptop which came with an Intel video-conferencing camera/system which I never used. I remember talking to Intel tech support and finding out that the only time Intel customers used the camera was to video with Intel tech support. The rep told me that on the phone.
Intel famously spent $7.6 billion in 2010 to buy McAfee, a leading security company, because someone told Intel that Washington would mandate security on each microprocessor Intel made. Washington never passed that legislation.
Now Intel has spent $15 billion on buying Israel’s Mobileye — which bills itself as the most trusted name in collision avoidance. No question, the company’s technology is brilliant. Its web site talks about:
Mobileye, the advanced driver assistant solution chosen by leading auto manufacturers,  uses artificial vision sensor to view the road ahead and warn drives with real-time visual and audible alerts if a threat is detected. the system performs advanced driver scene interpretation to identify other vehicles, bicyclists, pedestrians, lane markings and speed limit signs, providing vital time to react and potentially avoid or mitigate a collision.
In short, life-saving magic.
Do I have any faith that Intel, a successful maker of x86 microprocessors, will not wreck Mobileye?
No, I have no faith.
There’s no question that Intel has no idea how to run the businesses it buys. And its shareholders would be far better off if they were given the cash.
There’s a moral here. Intel’s founders have died or moved on. The present top management owns comparatively few shares and seems to have an obsession with acquisitions as their way (management’s way) to Nirvana. They’ve missed the market on so many new technologies — from video conferencing to mobile phones, that they keep flailing around searching for new magic.
There’s an investment lesson here. Be wary of firms whose founders leave and whose board of directors listens to Wall Street — “Buy companies.” That’s where the fees are — at least for Wall Street investment bankers.
Here’s Intel’s stock from the time I first eyed it:
IntelStock
By contrast, here’s Microsoft and Amazon over the same period:
MSFTLongTerm AmazonLongTerm
Funny thing. Intel seems to be getting worse marketing its new chips. These days my last five laptops have been run by an Intel i7 microprocessor. That makes it very difficult for customers like me to figure out which chip is faster and if I should buy it.
Please God, let me run Intel. I’d have the stock up to $100 in no time flat.
 This is Tropical Cyclone Debbie.

She’s making torrential rains, as much as eight inches in one day, flooding towns and causing evacuation orders. Debbie is of interest because Susan and I are going to the red dot this weekend for a quick visit with Australian friends and family.  

SkinnersShot

Debbie is moving very slowly. So we have packed heavy wet weather gear. Debbie is part of global warming/weirding, which is causing major areas of the Great Barrier Reef — north of the red dot — to die.

In recent years, Australia has suffered extensive drought and horrendous forest fires. Australia has been a huge believer in cutting carbon dioxide emissions and in supporting world efforts to combat global warming.

We in the U.S. were part of that movement too, until Trump became President, and decided to push a dying industry — coal.

I don’t deny climate change. It’s clearly happening. It’s not a Chinese plot to kill our industries. I’m aghast at what Trump is doing. I wanted my readers to read an article published Wednesday afternoon. This is the best, short summary of what happening in this important area:

Rolling Back Climate Regulations Is Trump’s Most Dangerous Con Yet
Pushing fossil fuels and killing climate rules will not keep America strong and safe
by Jeff Goodell

The executive order President Trump signed Tuesday is his most dangerous con yet. By rolling back President Obama’s Clean Power Plan and other climate-related regulations, he is willing to kill people with increased air pollution, put our national security at risk and cook the climate, all in the name of creating jobs for coal miners. Like most Trump cons, it’s about duping desperate voters into believing he is fighting for them, when in fact he is stealing their future.

I spent five years reporting and writing a book about the coal industry, and if I learned anything on that adventure, it was this: No matter what Trump does, coal is not coming back. We have been mining coal in America for more than 150 years – the stuff that’s left is increasingly expensive, of poor quality and difficult and dangerous to get out of the ground. In Appalachia, the only way to boost coal production is to blow up more mountains. (In many places in Appalachia, it’s now cheaper to remove the mountains from the coal with a few well-placed explosives than to dig the coal out of the mountain the old-fashioned way.)

Trump and many coal country politicians like to blame the decline of coal on Obama’s “war on coal” – but that too is a lie. Coal is dying because the world is moving on to cleaner, cheaper sources of energy: natural gas, solar, wind. Trump is not going to change the dynamics of the energy industry with a stroke of his pen. At best, loosening regulations on mining and burning coal might allow Big Coal to squeak out a few more years of profit before vanishing into the peat bogs of history. If Trump really wanted to create energy-sector jobs in America, he would push hard into renewables – the U.S. solar industry alone now employs twice as many workers as the coal industry, and more workers than the oil and gas industry combined.

But this is not about jobs. This is about payback to Big Coal CEOs and investors, who are desperate to squeeze a few more bucks out of the old mines before the renewable future takes over. It’s also, I think, a deliberate effort to trash President Obama’s legacy in an area where he had lasting and notable achievements.

But the cost of this is enormous. Beyond the economic cost of falling behind in the clean energy industry, there is issue of public health. Globally, seven million people a year die prematurely due to air pollution. More air pollution also means increased asthma attacks, more hospitable visits, higher medical bills. In coal country, loosening mining restrictions will also mean more coal ash – laden with toxic heavy metals – dumped into rivers and streams.

Then there is climate change. Trump thinks of it as a hoax, something the Chinese cooked up to trick Americans into – what? Abandoning fossil fuels and dominating the $1.3 trillion market for clean energy? In any case, by signing an executive order to roll back Obama’s Clean Power Plan, Trump is virtually ensuring that the U.S. won’t meet its obligations to the Paris Climate Accord, which was agreed to by 195 nations and is probably the last best chance we have to keep global temperatures under two degrees Celsius, the threshold for dangerous warming. By blowing off the deal, Trump is making the Chinese – who are moving fast into clean tech and continuing to push for emissions reductions – look like enlightened moral leaders. But Trump is also saying “f**k you” to those affected by wildfires and droughts, pushing the Arctic and Antarctica toward a more rapid collapse, and speeding up the inundation of nearly $900 billion worth of real estate in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and other coastal areas. (On the upside, Mar-a-Lago could be an underwater tourist destination before too long.)

The biggest con of all is that pushing fossil fuels and killing climate rules will keep America strong and safe. In fact, the truth is just the opposite. As former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel put it, climate change is a “threat multiplier.” More extreme weather – increased droughts and flooding – leads to food and water shortages, and more displaced people. More refugees mean more political turmoil, more chaos, more wars. Which, for Trump, may be the point. The more he f**ks up the world, the more opportunities he’ll have to remind us that only he can save it.

I’ve reproduced the article in full. You can find the original here.

I would not buy shares in any coal companies.

Now to something more “fun.”

Marijuana will be legal for all Canadians over the age of 18 by July 1, 2018,

This legalization will mark Canada’s 151st birthday “in style.”.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party will officially announce the plan on April 10, according to Business Insider.

The legislation is expected to easily pass through Parliament, as it holds support from major political parties both to the right, and left of Trudeau’s Liberals. As well, a majority of Canadians support legalizing marijuana, according to a recent poll from NRG Research Group.

The plan follows the recommendations laid out by a federal task force — led by former Toronto police chief Bill Blair and former Justice Minister Anne McLellan — and leaves it up to the provincial governments to implement the plan and control how marijuana is sold, reports CBC.

Though the federal government stipulates a minimum age of 18 to purchase marijuana in stores, provinces will be free to raise the age as they see fit. Canadians will also be able to grow up to four marijuana plants in their household.

Click here.

I wouldn’t buy shares in any marijuana companies, either.

Yesterday afternoon, I received an email:

Interview Resource: The Stock and Financial Impact of Canada’s Coming Recreational Pot Sales

Hi Harry

In case you or a colleague are following this issue I wanted to get a resource over to you.

As you may know, Canada has announced that they will unveil plans to legalizes sales for the recreational use of marijuana in April.

Timothy Taggart is CEO of American Growth Fund Series Two (AMREX), currently the United States’ only Cannabis Mutual Fund.  Headquartered in Denver, this diversified fund focuses solely on the cannabis industry.  Approved by the SEC, it invests in publicly traded companies in areas that support this exploding industry like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, hydroponic, equipment, to name a few. He’s been following this development in Canada and of it says,

“Since their announcement on Monday, we have seen a vase increase in Canadian marijuana stocks. Canopy Growth Corp rose as much as 11 percent on Monday, while other stocks such as Aurora have climbed more than 400 percent in the last 12 months. Canada’s legalization process for both medical and recreational marijuana is much further along than other countries. For instance, some of the Canadian stock companies have stocks that touch the marijuana plant, while there are no stocks like this in the US that currently exist. I anticipate that as the US evolves in this process, and we become more competitive with Canada that the us stocks will have  similar results  to Canada’s,” Taggart says.

Please feel free to use all or parts of Taggart’s quote above in your stories. Just please let me know if you do. He is also available for interviews. I look forward to hearing from you.

Laura Kelley
(303) 704-5222
laura@thesolutionpr.com

When techie things go awry

+ Reboot the device.

+ Reset network connections — when your iPhone voice mail stops working.

+ Try a different browser — when your online bank keeps rejecting you.

+ Try a faster Internet connection — when things generally are hiccuping. Move off slow WiFi, to fast wired Internet (if you can).

+ If it works, don’t mess with it. I’m still using Microsoft Office 2003. It’s clean, simple to use and ultra-reliable. It does pay to update the Windows and Apple operating systems, because some of the updates catch security flaws.

Somewhat amusing

Weight

This is me, Harry Newton, at the tennis court with a seven foot tennis player. I’m six feet. I’ve never stood next to anyone this tall. It’s strange feeling. He was very sweet, allowing me stretch to maybe six foot quarter of an inch. You can see how I’m straining.

Bigtennisplayer

Life is wonderful.

Please don’t email me and tell you don’t “believe” in global warming. You can choose to believe, or not believe in God. But global warming is science. It’s a major problem we should be attacking — if we want our children and grandchildren to enjoy the wonderful life we’ve enjoyed.

7 Comments

  1. Jerry says:

    Harry, did global warming cause those sticks to grow out of your pants where your legs should be?

  2. bruuno says:

    Harry, we have achieved cult status as a nation.
    So we”can” deny reality. It’s also called adamant ignorance.
    Folks: you can measure climate. You cannot measure God’s presence, unless you declare it’s all God’s doing. But then you have to include the evil stuff. Oh I see, that was the Anti-God. Right.

  3. Yekusiel G. says:

    No Harry, you have it all backwards. You can “choose” whether you “believe” in global warming and if human actions really have an affect on climate change but you can NOT deny the existence of our creator. When you refer to “science”, who do you think created “science”? Everything was created by God almighty. There is only one God. God is giving you the health and strength to run this website. God is giving me and all of your readers the ability to read and enjoy your writings. He is even giving me the ability to type this comment from my smartphone this very moment. We must think about and constantly thank God for all of his blessings he bestows upon us.

  4. Peter says:

    It is more than global warming. It is climate change, or to be honest, climate disaster. Look at the huge temperature swing, damaging wind, flooding, and all kinds of bad weather patterns which we never saw before. Unfortunately it hit many red states hard too. Thank you Harry for mentioning it.

  5. frump says:

    wasn’t there a movie — Debbie does Australia…
    should retrain coal workers to be nuke power workers, heh

  6. Gerald Friesen says:

    Good article today: Intel – yes. Global warming – absolutely. Coal – dead issue. Marijuana – legalize it. Playing a 7′ tennis player – not a chance.
    GERRY FRIESEN

  7. JimBobToo says:

    Harry, Global warming is exactly where the concept of smoking was in the 50s; plenty of evidence, but many deniers….unfortunately, the global impact of global warming will dwarf the cost of smoking…plus, stopping smoking produces immediate benefits….ceasing warming activities will not reverse anything for a long time due to the slow moving scale of the planet. I don’t know what to tell my grandkids who look up to me as a competent scientist…