In Search of the Perfect Investment

Bad markets bring out the worst stockmarket gurus and their worst, and most confusing predictions,.e.g.

Go figure.

The consensus is the world has changed, including:

+ China and that tariff war. People are asking what’s the motive for China to do a new tariff agreement? “Do we really think China wants to help Trump hold on to the House and the Senate?”

+ Tariffs are hurting many manufacturers and their stocks e.g.

+ Higher interest now pose an attractive alternative to slipping equities.

+ Housing and apartment sales are slipping, especially in major markets like both coasts.

+ Tech stocks out of favor. Netflix reports blow-out numbers and the stock falls. Says BoA Merrill Lynch, investors are not rewarding companies that beat earnings and sales expectations. This is happening for the first time since the tech bubble burst in 2000, and it can be interpreted as a late-cycle signal. (Whatever that means.)

+ Europe. Especially Italy.

October is often an awful month. 30 years ago last Friday in 1987 the market crashed 22% in one day. Way back in 1929, October was the beginning of the stockmarket crash. Yuch on October!

I don’t like seeing my wealth evaporate each day. But there is hope.

This is the chart that gives me most hope. Here’s the last two years of Nasdaq:

Before now, we had two pretty gruesome drops. But we roared back.

What messes up my portfolio’s “performance” is my huge position in Amazon which has now come back exactly 15% from its high a few weeks ago. Here’s Amazon year to date:

At 15% down, it’s right at my 15% “inviolate stop loss” position. I feel most reluctant to sell it one day before it reports earnings (after close tomorrow). Most gurus think Amazon will blow out its numbers. That may not be enough to stem its decline. But it’s a gamble I’ll make. I asked Alexa “Should I sell Amazon shares?” She answered, “I’m not sure about that.”

Meanwhile you really need to read The Atlantic’s piece “Alexa. How Will You Change Us?”

The article begins “The voice revolution has only just begun. Today, Alexa is a humble servant. Very soon, she could be much more — a teacher, a therapist, a confidant, an informant.”

It continues — read this. It’s mind-blowing::

Privacy concerns have not stopped the march of these devices into our homes, however. Amazon doesn’t disclose exact figures, but when I asked how many Echo devices have been sold, a spokeswoman said “tens of millions.” By the end of last year, more than 40 million smart speakers had been installed worldwide, according to Canalys, a technology-research firm. Based on current sales, Canalys estimates that this figure will reach 100 million by the end of this year. According to a 2018 report by National Public Radio and Edison Research, 8 million Americans own three or more smart speakers, suggesting that they feel the need to always have one within earshot. By 2021, according to another research firm, Ovum, there will be almost as many voice-activated assistants on the planet as people. It took about 30 years for mobile phones to outnumber humans. Alexa and her ilk may get there in less than half that time.

One reason is that Amazon and Google are pushing these devices hard, discounting them so heavily during last year’s holiday season that industry observers suspect that the companies lost money on each unit sold. These and other tech corporations have grand ambitions. They want to colonize space. Not interplanetary space. Everyday space: home, office, car. In the near future, everything from your lighting to your air-conditioning to your refrigerator, your coffee maker, and even your toilet could be wired to a system controlled by voice.

Everybody in the Newton family has at least one Alexa device. I have three. Alexa is very useful. I suspect that some of my grandchildren will never learn to type. They’ll talk to Alexa.

You can read the full Atlantic monthly article here. 

JPMorgan downgraded my favorite dividend stock LADR, but still kept their price target of $18.00 (versus its present price of $17.00). Go figure. You downgrade the stock, but keep your price target!

Here’s JPM’s piece: LADR by JPM.

There’s a nice Seeking Alpha piece on LADR. The author owns LADR. Click here. 

My BIG question is Netflix. Look at this horrible chart. It’s now down 24% from its peak only a few weeks ago.

My rule says Dump It Now.

Tech used to be the place to be. But not in this downdraft. Cash is not an unpleasant place to be. I like LADR, with its 7.6% yield. I just bought some more.

According to Reuters, most S&P 500 stocks are in a correction or bear market, 353 S&P 500 stocks have fallen into a correction — down 10% from their peaks – and 179 of those are in a bear market — down at least 20% from their peak.

Today’s Quiz

These 7,000+ people are approaching.

This is allegedly where they are or where they were yesterday. Still a long way from us.

If you were President, what would you do? I posed this question to friends this morning. Among their answers:

+ Put George Soros in jail for paying each of them $4,000 to come to the U.S. and embarrass President Trump.

+ Set up a machine gun at the border. Kill some. That would deter the rest.

+ Separate the children from the parents. Put everyone in detention camps in the U.S.

+ Use the menace as way to attract Republican voters. Many of the Caravan people are clearly criminals and ISIS (and perhaps Australian) terrorists.

+ From Joel Ross of Ross Rant newsletter fame:

Apparently drivers of lumber trucks in Montana have been talking over their radios more than they ever have, and a lot have agreed to forgo loads on election day in order to vote Republican. The driver reporting this said he has never seen this sort of thing before, and these guys are really riled up. 77,000 people signed up in Houston to get tickets to go to the latest Trump rally. Just think about that number, and try to relate it to what you will hear on CNN, NBC, ABC, Google, etc about Trump’s approval. That indicates what is going on in the real America away from the coasts, and away from the media and Silicon Valley. The caravan is likely supported and encouraged by the Dems and Pelosi, and Soros and Steyer, and it is going to add on to Kavanaugh, and shift votes from the Dems in AZ, TX, and many other places. The idea that the border will be overrun by illegals taking advantage of the separation of families issue from a couple of months ago, is going to get a lot of border state voters out to the polls. There are now 4,000 -yes 4,000, coming across each week since the courts stopped Trump from closing the border. Look at pictures of the caravan. Note that nobody has a suitcase. Nobody has water, or a sleeping bag. They drag along kids walking over one thousand miles with no clothes or any personal belongings. Do you ask how this is possible. How can the kids walk over 1000 miles. Where do 4000 walkers go to the bathroom. And the media claimed Trump was heartless by trying to close the border. There are 13,000 kids that came across unaccompanied now in custody. Many “parents” are not real “parents”, they just have a kid in tow to get across. How does anyone just pick up and walk over 1000 miles with no change of clothes or personal belongings. Who is really behind this, and what is really going on. The more they break down border fences in Mexico and create a huge story, the more Republicans go out to vote in border states.

My own view is clouded by three facts; Unemployment is full i the United States. All the local contractors in Columbia County, New York (where I am at present) complain of being unable to hire anyone. Finally, I can’t find anyone to do some painting, gardening, driveway work and sundry other household chores. I’m an immigrant, (from Australia). I started several businesses and paid oodles of taxes. One year I wrote a check for $40 million to the IRS. They never sent me a “Thank You.”

On retirement

Why David Boies, 77, famous Wall Street lawyer, hasn’t retired:

People retire so they can do what they love to do. … I already love what I do.

For more, read the fascinating interview with him in the weekend’s New York Times. Click here.

Be ultra wary of run-flat tires

High-end new cars often come with run-flat tires and no spare donut.

The marketing BS is that you can drive on run flats for 50 miles — enough to get to your local dealer. Unless he’s closed, which ours was.

Run-flat tires are a marketing gimmick. They free up space in the back of a car. That lets the dealer sell you something like a third row of seats.

You can repair a run flat — from the inside. But you can’t plug it.

Run flat tires cost nearly three times what normal high-quality tires cost. Run flats are also much heavier.

More on run-flats, click here.

Latest wonderful New Yorker cartoons

Harry Newton, who spent a lot of time in the past few days reading and reading, searching for answers. I’m not too sure I have any. One key piece of advice is to ignore the horrible negative articles which financial editors feel compelled to run.

Last Sunday, the New York Times ran a piece “Three Letters Walt Street Loves and We Should Fear.” The piece delved into C.L.Os — collateral loan obligations a – a moderner version of the C.D.Os (colllateralized debt obligations) which brought down the economy in 2008.

The article starts “The C.L.O., a cousin of the mortgage-related product that malfunctioned a decade ago, has become one of the hottest investments on Wall Street.”

I  don’t believe C.L.Os pose the risks C.D.Os did. But, what the heck, give yourself agita. Read the piece here.