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There is joy

“You’re over 75?”

“Yes. I look that bad?”

“You don’t have to take your shoes off.”

The TSA got intelligent. Thank you.

“Bulls charge into Q2”

That was the headline on CNBC when stocks jumped today (Monday, April 1).

Dow up was 1.27%. Nasdaq was up 1.29%. Our own portfolio of stocks was up 1.60%.

Of course, nobody knew why — though there were plenty of theories.

CNBC was so desperate for reasons that it even had the now-thinner Larry Summers on for an extraordinary amount of boring airtime.

Last week the big news was inversion: the 10-year treasury was paying less than the 2-year. When that happens that means a recession has to be coming. That’s the theory.

The shaded parts are recessions.

All debt inversions of the past 50+ years have been followed by recessions.

I read a whole lot of why debt inversions cause recessions. The explanations were all baffling.

I figured this out:

+ Economic activity is slowing. No one is borrowing long-term. (Big simplification.)

+ The Fed (and other central banks, and investors overseas) have bought so many long-term treasurys that they cause interest rates to fall.

Lower interest rates are great for my real estate syndicators, some of whom are refinancing at these remarkably low interest rates.

Some are sending money to their investors.

Thank you.

None of the inversion talk will tank the stockmarket long-term or even short-term — this year, for example. That’s my belief.

I’m hanging in, as are all of my intelligent friends. (I bet some won’t like that.)

Thoughts on Tech

+ Lyft is  way over-priced. It’s losing money hand over fist. Worse, it’s a one product company — rise sharing — facing a huge, much-larger competitor, Uber, that’s actually easier to use.

+ Apple does so well in Hawaii.I went shopping with only my iPhone and paid everywhere with Apple Pay. Everyone took it. Despite my dour outlook for Apple News+ and Apple Movies, the company continues its huge stock buyout which obviously benefits us stockholders. (I will not pay Apple News+ $10 a month to get access to magazines I don’t want to read.)

+ Amazon is roaring back, maybe soon reaching its December high of $2,050. Looking good.

+ Stocks I’d buy on a pullback: Netflix, Crown Castle, Paypal and Square.

Travel is getting easier and more fun

Susan and I have flown six times recently on American. All flights were on-time, most arriving early.

Everything works better and better. Some of the meals are even great for my diet.

I never thought I’d schlep to Hawaii for a week. But no sweat.

We’re going back to Kona for spring break next March with the kids. Then we’re going fishing for Blue Marlin:

They grow to 1,500 lbs. You can do catch and release.

You get jet lag going east.

I have four “cures.”

+ Get on local time asap.

+ Sleep.

+ Sun.

+ Berries:

Travel eats your phone’s battery.

Waze and Google Maps eat battery. My solutions:

+ A Mophie. Click here.

+ An Anker PowerCore, now much improved:

Costs $37. Click here.

Biggest travel tips:

+ Never go barefoot. Everyone has damaged a toe in an unfamiliar place. Me too.

+ Take fewer clothes.

+ Don’t check. My 25 inch wheelie fits virtually all overhead containers. It’s the one on the right. The one of the left is a “legal” 22 inch case.

No one has stopped me taking my 25 inch on board. You can live 10 days out of the 25 incher.

Before you sign with Airbnb or VRBO…

+ Insist they have HBO and The Tennis Channel.

+ For WiFi, at least 20 meg download. Measure it here.

+ Checkout time of noon, not 10:00 AM.

Death by coconut

Being hit by a falling coconuts is the leading cause of death in Hawaii.

In Maui, they have warning signs.

And they have men who climb coconut trees for a living.

The climbers “fix” the trees so  the trees can’t make coconuts for four to six months.

A professional coconut climber gave me the authoritative death “statistic.”

Why I love software

Last week I was 4,935 miles away.

I received 12 emailed alerts that I have a water leak in the basement.

Who cares? I’m on vacation.

An hour later on the first one (and all the others) I receive this alert.

I did absolutely nothing. Nice to know it’s fixed. God bless, the Internet of Useless Things.

Why did Trump become President?

The most amazing apology from a Trump disliker — namely Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone. Fascinating stuff. Click here.

Never give your friends investment advice

As luck will have it, the one you recommend will go bad. And the K-1 will make it seem even worse… Oiy veh.


Harry Newton That’s me in Kona, Hawaii last week. Next time I run this photo I’ll Photoshop those horrible snakes in my neck. Photoshop is cheaper than botox. My new teeth do look pretty good.

  • Scooter

    Matt Taibbi still doesn’t understand why Trump won; he probably never will.

  • gerryb

    former cbs corespondent Lara Logan on fox this morning (they quote from taibi’s article.) https://contemptor.com/2019/04/02/lara-logan-goes-on-fox-news-to-slam-mainstream-media-for-propaganda-and-collusion/

    • gerryb

      Taibi: “Russiagate became a convenient replacement explanation absolving an incompetent political establishment for its complicity in what happened in 2016, and not just the failure to see it coming.”
      It seemed to me that the Russiagate story got rolling when wikileaks released the democratic emails. Suddenly the story was that wikileaks was putin’s tool–even though assange had humiliated putin with the panama papers–and trump was colluding with russia. So the narrative was completely directed away from the damning facts within the emails. Of course, the story became much more after the election.

    • Scooter

      You mean collusion among the networks and the DNC? Naw.

  • Lucky

    Next time to Hawaii…go deep sea fishing…I missed a marlin because the guy next to me knocked mine off with his…I did catch a 25# tuna off Oahu that per the captains instructions I baked in of all things Italian dressing with lots of fresh tropical fruit…you never ate anything so delicious in your life.