You choose:
Would you rather be here? That’s Michael and me in Slovenia.
Or would you rather be here? This charts the time we were biking in Slovenia and Croatia.
I’m back. The news is simple:
+ We have a Trade War with China. One day it’s “resolved.” The next day it isn’t. Trump likes moving our emotions up and down faster than a whore’s drawers. (Australian expression.) The reality is markets are learning to live with the roller coaster ride. I don’t believe you can bully the Chinese. The roller coaster ride will be long.
+ Much more important is the Fed. It’s made one rate cut. It will make more this year. It’s also stopped QT. Don’t fight the Fed. That’s bullish. There are good dividend stocks, like Ladder.
+ The economy is slowing slightly, but it’s still expanding — maybe 2% to 2.5% this year.
The rest is noise. And noise affects investor psychies. (Spelling?) Some panic and sell. The algo computers play it and accentuate the movements. 60%to 70% of today’s trading is a dumb computer trying to play it for ultra-short term gains.
My friends have three strategies for days like these:
+Put in ultra-low buy bids on their favorite stocks, and nibble away. This works remarkably well.
+ Day-trade. Buy the dips and highs during the day. Hope for a 10 to 25 cent gain on each trade. It works if you study one stock over weeks and can discern its trading pattern. These people thrive on volatility, and love down days.
+ Do nothing. Watch the news. Watch earnings. See if anything suggests you should change your portfolio — I show mine in the right hand column of this blog. Click here. For example my Netflix has been suffering, but now that Disney has said it will sell at the same price as Netflix, I feel more comfortable.
+ Avoid things you feel uncomfortable with — like Boeing, bitcoin, cannabis, gold. Don’t feel bad if someone else is making oodles with this stuff. Remember BubbleVision has got to fill 24 hours with something.
The biggest news is how how lower rates have positively affected real estate — that’s an industry that Trump understands. (Guess why he’s harassing the Feds to keep lowering rates.) This week I just put some money into a handsome commercial property in the mid-west. It just got more valuable because it can now borrow more cheaply.
15 times faster Internet.
This nice man, Josh Pierson, came yesterday and installed my new fiber Internet line. That’s him holding the cable. He stripped away the cable to reveal the tiny fiber which he has in his hand. The big black cable is for support.
This is before-Josh. DSL on copper wire.
This is today — after Josh. On dedicated fiber:
We’re now 15 times faster. This is very impressive:
+ We’re in the middle of nowhere. Six miles from the nearest town. Seven miles from the nearest supermarket. Seriously rural.
+ This makes possible the impossible. This is a life changer. Several of us can get serious work done simultaneously.
+ Our phone service just got much better. We have one landline and two cell phones. All calls now run on the fiber and sound superb.I mean really superb.
+ Our streaming TV — from Netflix, YouTube TV and Amazon, etc. — now is as good as cable or satellite.
+ Our reliability just got much much better. The fiber is immune to heat and weather.
It’s time to get rid of overpriced DirecTV and go streaming which everyone is doing.
Further boring travel tips
+ Water is magic. The more you drink, the better you feel.
+ I took far too much. I like cotton. But the newer plastic stuff weighs less and dries overnight.
+ Don’t check. Carry on. I took an illegal 25 inch Eagle Creek roll-on. Michael took a legal 22 inch Eagle Creek roll on. We both made it.
+ You don’t need a real camera. The iPhone is superb. Put your best stuff into your photo-streams and let the family enjoy. We uploaded every day. Europe has remarkably good WiFi. So do cross-Atlantic planes.
+ U.S. Global Entry is fantastic. Saves huge time. But you got to renew it every five years. I forgot and got stuck.
+ You can do magic at the gate. Not online. Flattery doesn’t work online.
+Backroads runs seriously great biking trips. This one to Slovenia and Croatia was our fifth, and favorite. Next year, Michael and I are going to Norway.
+ I’m hooked on truffles — in cheese or pasta.
+ Don’t worry how you look. Everyone in the family hates my hat. But my hat and MDSolarSciences sunscreen does the job.
I’m glad to be home.
Harry
