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Investments that are exploding. (My trees and my short.) Today’s finds.

Dateline: Columbia County, New York. This is the view from my country office window this morning, October 21, 2019.

We planted these sugar maples about ten years ago. They’re gorgeous today. My iPhone 8 plus doesn’t do them justice.

I’ve had this property for over 30 years. I’ve never seen a Fall like this one. The sky is azure blue. There’s zero wind. Perfect leaf-peeping and tennis weather. Guess what I’m doing the instant I finish this short blog?

Happy Thoughts. From CNBC.com this morning:

Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller believes a recession may be years away due to a bullish Trump effect in the market.

“I think that [strong spending] has to do with the inspiration for many people provided by our motivational speaker president who models luxurious living,” said Shiller.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said over the weekend Beijing would work with the U.S. to address one another’s trade concerns. He also said both sides have made “substantial progress” on trade. China’s chief negotiator in the trade talks also said that stopping the trade war would be good for both countries – as well as the global economy.

Hence the market is up this morning.

Boeing is down

Boeing is the classic cockroach stock. Every day another cockroach emerges. Every day more bad news. The last few days an avalanche. A Boeing pilot told the company years ago that the 737 MAX had big problems. Management didn’t listen. Today there’s oodles of bad news on the financial sites suggesting that Boeing is seriously short of money — and — my interpretation — could file for Chapter 11. The problem is Boeing took in bucketloads of money for 737 MAX deliveries, but didn’t deliver. And now much of the money is gone. Hence a cash crunch of billions of dollars. Maybe the government will bail them out? Obama bailed out GM. Trump will bail out Boeing?

Investors love the stock. And despite my feelings about cockroaches, I’ve stayed away from shorting it. I did on Friday — tentatively. Only 100 shares. But today I’m up a couple of thousand bucks. I’m disgusted with Boeing’s management. They’ve handled the whole 737 MAX worse than a bunch of kindergarten children. Why Dennis Muilenburg didn’t lose his job when the first 737 MAX crashed is beyond my tiny brain. I bet Boeing drops way below $300 very soon.

Today’s absolute best investment

Buy something cheap. Like property with hair on it. Fix it up. Get new tenants. Manage it right. Improve its profitability and sell it to someone in desperate need of the decent yield they’re not getting from equities or on the bond or treasury market. The outlook for long-term yield is bleak. Pension funds face a bleak future.

Residential apartments/attached townhouses and commercial office buildings are the best. If you’re young, look around, find stuff you  can fix up and rent out reasonably. (Not New York or San Francisco rentals.) Low interest rates — which we have now — are great for real estate. That’s why Donald loves them and wants them ever lower. It’s something he understands. Borrow cheaply and your returns on leveraged stuff — like real estate — can skyrocket.

There are trends here: Retail is dying — though there are exceptions — retailers that offer something “special” like Costco, Target, Walmart and Lululemon. But nothing will stop Amazon.

You can buy this hairy real estate yourself and fix it up. You can also invest in syndicated real estate, which I prefer. Check out the managers. There are some really good ones around.

Reality: There’s too much money and not enough investments. You see the writing on the wall with pension funds increasingly unable to meet their earnings assumptions. Local taxes are rising to meet the obligations.

Hand it to the Trump people

Within a day or two of Mulvaney making this great quip, they were selling t-shirts for $30.

I really like the logo. Here’s a closeup:

Here’s what his web site says:

Don’t believe the “While supplies last” line. They didn’t buy a bunch. They’ve figured out how to print them one at a time, as demand comes in. The Republicans are much more skilled at this — and database management —  than their rivals. As a result, they’ve raised an enormous amount of money already.

Thoughts for this week

I’m still pursuing the story of those S&P e-mini amazing trades. See Friday’s blog.  Click here.

Off to play tennis. — Harry Newton

 

 

 

3 Comments

  1. Mike Nash says:

    Harry Newton, I’m glad to see that you’re now supporting Donald J. Trump!! He’s gonna be our president for another four years, one way or another. He will probably win reelection but if he doesn’t, he’s not gonna leave, LOL. MAGA.

  2. Glenn says:

    Does Manhattan have a city tax on top of federal, state and sales tax? I keep hearing of people moving from New York to Florida because of new tax plan. I asked my accountant about the sudden increase in people moving from New York to Florida and he mentioned a city tax in New York city that I never knew existed.