What’s the use of economists if they forecast only booms?
Much better to forecast doom and gloom. At least someone will listen?
Today the New York Times ran a piece in its Business Section:
The Economy Is Expanding. Why Are Economists So Glum?
At an annual gathering of the profession, researchers presented evidence and talks that amounted to warnings on the state of the record-long expansion.
SAN DIEGO – The mood among economic forecasters gathered for their annual meeting last weekend was dark. They warned one another about President Trump’s trade war, about government budget deficits and, repeatedly, about the inability of central banks to fully combat another recession should one sweep the globe anytime soon.
Among the thousands of economists gathered for the profession’s annual meeting, there was little celebration of Mr. Trump’s economic policies, even though unemployment is at a 50-year low, wages are rising and the economy is experiencing its longest expansion on record.
Underlying their sense of foreboding was a widespread sentiment that the current expansion is built on a potentially shaky combination of high deficits and low interest rates – and when it ends, as it is bound to do eventually, it could do so painfully.
Those concerns were echoed on Wednesday by economists at the World Bank, who called the worldwide expansion “fragile” in their latest “Global Economic Prospects” report. The report forecasts a slight uptick in growth in 2020 after a sluggish year bogged down by trade tensions and weak investment. But it said “downside risks predominate,” including the potential escalation of trade fights, sharp slowdowns in the United States and other wealthy countries and financial disruptions in emerging markets like China and India.
You can read the rest of the nonsense here.
Apple climbs again
Here’s Apple in the last year.
There’s nothing in their earnings or sales to justify this, except that their P/E is still only 25.5 — even today.
My morning’s thoughts:
Maybe they’ll do something to justify the higher price? Introduce a 5G phone? Get rid of the annoying cutout at the top of the screen?
Introduce a MacBook Pro with a decent keyboard?
Suffice, there remains a shortage of hyped technology stocks — though we have a pretty good list — check out the right hand column now updated. Click here.
Boeing is up today
Cees Penning, a reader, wrote me this morning:
Boeing should make a survey to see how many people are not willing to fly on
a 737 Max. I would not.
Neither would my wife. Me neither.
In fact, until they figure out what happened to this week’s crash of a 737 in Tehran, I’m leery about flying any Boeing 737.
Late afternoon update: the Iranians shot the 737 down by mistake. The plane had just taken off from the main Tehran airport and was climbing to its cruising altitude.
You deserve this
Whether your hearing is shot or still good, you deserve this for watching TV. The quality is better than your TV, with or without your over-priced soundbar. You’ll hear the dialog. You’ll hear it in stereo. Netflix and others come alive. Best of all, your partner can sleep while you watch a chick-flick or escapist nonsense.
Over the years I’ve tested virtually every wireless TV headphone, many of which are pricier than these. These are the only ones that have held up long-term. Only $78.90. Click here. Buy also a box of AAA batteries. It chews up batteries, if you leave them on, which you will.
Dead kangaroos (and one dead sheep)
I’m researching the best places for us to send money to Australia for fire relief. Susan found a few and sent money, but said it was difficult. We’ll see if we can find something easier today. Nicole Kidman gave $500,000.
Don’t forget
+ Don’t forget to turn on your phone after you shut it off at the theater or the movie house.
+ Don’t forget to ignore the traffic lights and check what’s coming — including bicycles that (in Manhattan) don’t obey lights or laws, or pedestrians wearing AirPods and texting.
+ Don’t forget to hold the hand railing as you go down stairs.
+ Don’t forget to stop smoking. Some people still do. Why, I don’t know. Yesterday I asked a 26-year old on the street if he knew smoking was bad for him. He did. I asked why he was still smoking? He said he didn’t know. Ditto for vaping.
Your new startup
+ Will take longer to get started
+ Will be more expensive to start
+ Will run out of money
At which point you’ll do something stupid — like scramble around desperately looking for money. our scramble will force you to take a really stupid deal — like mortgaging your entire company to someone for a miserable $1 million. And if you don’t pay the money back in 12 months, they’ll take your entire company.
Bingo, you’ll have lost five years of your work.
You think I’m kidding? I got hit up for $1 million yesterday by a friend who’s just about to lose his precious new company. He lost a previous one the exact same way!
If I were younger, I’ll probably loan him the million and in a year’s time take it from him.
Meantime, raise at least five times what you think you’ll need. Don’t worry about dilution. When you lose it all, dilution tends to be meaningless.
Don’t do stupid video — funny
Send me a case of tennis balls if you’ve made decent money with the past year’s portfolio and stock tips.
See you tomorrow — Harry Newton
Harry……you can only dodge the truth for so long. Trump is going to destroy your evil democrat party and hang Obama at Gitmo. HRC took the deal.
Harry…… what if Soleimani was killed in Syria in 2015? What if the DoD briefed house and senate members of this knowing that they would certainly leek it to the media, but also knowing that the media would never ever mention it. Define: complicit.
The Great Awakening
Future Proves Past
Trust The Plan
Dark To Light
WWG1WGA
Q
Harry see if you can find an article describing how many people in Aussy are now under indictment for starting the fires. Is the number approx 200? Man Made Global Warming my ass, just ask George Soros.
Central banks – including the U.S. Federal Reserve – are not just attempting to boost the economy with quantitative easing. They are broadcasting exactly how far they will go to get out ahead of a recession – and avoid it for as long as possible.It seems clear that this proactive approach by central banks has extended – and will continue to extend – the current economic expansion for far longer than it otherwise could go without such stimulus.
Eventually, a recession will hit, despite the bankers’ actions. And when that happens, central banks will have already run out of bullets. Thus, the ensuing downturn will be extraordinarily bad – a potential “death spiral” indeed.
This reality is in part due to the extreme debt levels sloshing around the financial markets. There’s too much debt everywhere – at the government, corporate, consumer, and investor levels – for this to end well. The question is when? The certainty is that it will be blamed on the free market capitalism that the government must now step in to transform.
Gerryb , I agree with you. but they do have one bullet left the central bankers are starting to use, and also bond and CDS traders. The advent of the negative interest rates,( 20% of all bond issues) essentially swapping debt for equity. They can keep this going for another 10 years, if the national debt and government debt becomes what essentially is a giant reverse mortgage, lol Its ludicrous what these guys can engineer in modern economic policy.