In Search of the Perfect Investment

There is no cure. There is no vaccine. And it’s difficult to diagnose.

The only way to curb its onslaught is to quarantine and shut down vast areas.

The coronavirus is the Black Swan Event that will seriously hurt the economies of China, Korea and Southeast Asia.

It will hurt U.S. companies also. They will lose overseas demand. Many won’t get the parts they need.  China makes everything — from clothes to iPhones. It’s a huge assembly factory. There’ll be shortages.

No one knows how severe this will be.

This morning stocks will open way down.

This means we will be giving up some of our recent hefty gains.

Some stocks could become very attractive.

I am personally more interested in buying cheap stocks than I am into selling into this downdraft.

I am depressed about Bernie Sanders’ win in Nevada. He could snag the Democratic nomination. His policies frighten me. I like capitalism. It gave me a chance.

CNBC wrote an “OpED”:

Bernie Sanders is the front-runner because of how we raised our kids

It’s worth reading. Click here.

The Economist has a piece:

Covid-19 presents economic policymakers with a new sort of threat
It mixes demand and supply effects

Click here.

This morning, reader Ed Saylor writes:

Scary to think about this virus becoming a pandemic. A well known epidemiologist from Harvard has stated that he sees this virus as a global pandemic, affecting 70% of the world’s population over a two year period. That would mean that 5.6 billion will become infected and approximately 112 million people may die. I don’t quite believe these predictions and have faith that our biotechnology and vaccine prowess will win out. We will see how this plays out.

Meanwhile sign your receipts with your own pen, wash your hands and face 5-6 times per day, stay away from crowds, cut back on airplane travel, wear a face mask as appropriate, stop shaking hands with everyone, keep a three feet distance from others and carry some antiseptic wet wipe-ums to clean your hands and other surfaces as needed.

Susan and I are taking care of two grandkids — Eleanor, 6 and Peter, 4 — in Portland, OR, while their parents are taking a few days off. It’s more work than I ever remember. But there are real moments of joy — like when they beat me at card games.

This morning stocks opened way down, but with four, remarkably, up. The big “up” is Zoom Video (ZM) — which I picked recently as The Big Winner of this sadness. Zoom Video is like being there. The quality of its video conferencing is superb. You can get real business done on Zoom.

I am watching stocks that approach my 15% stop loss rule. I have only one — AYX — and I dumped it this morning.

In my earlier email, I said Nebraska, when I meant Nevada. I’m still scared of Bernie.

Let’s see what the rest of today brings. — Harry Newton