In Search of the Perfect Investment

Now only do we have a rampant virus, but we have an inept, incompetent, fact-denying, science-ignorant Administration:

This is not difficult: The more you test, the more cases you find. We have about 330 million people in the U.S.

75,000 testing kits will cover just O.02% of them.

But there’s no urgency; Just lots of fantasies:

President Donald Trump on Wednesday night spun a web of theories minimizing the coronavirus’ threat to Americans, accusing the World Health Organization of dispensing inaccurate facts about the outbreak and suggesting that those with the disease could be safe going to work.

During expansive remarks on Fox News host Sean Hannity’s program, the president continued to break with public health officials’ more dire messaging regarding the international crisis and forcefully contradicted the WHO, which earlier in the week pegged the global mortality rate for the coronavirus at 3.4 percent.

“Well, I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number. Now, and this is just my hunch, and — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this. Because a lot people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor,” Trump said.

Items:

+  The number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus in New York State doubled on Thursday (yesterday) to 22, with officials announcing eight new cases in Westchester County, one on Long Island and two patients in New York City who are critically ill. But the virus’s potential reach was underscored by a much larger number: The City Department of Health is keeping tabs on 2,773 New Yorkers currently in home isolation, most of them in self-quarantine, city officials said on Thursday.

+ Italy’s tourism federation said up to 90% of hotel and travel agency bookings had been canceled in Rome for March.

+ Venture firm Sequoia is sounding the alarm about the economy again as coronavirus spreads. The last time Sequoia sounded the alarm was in 2008. You should read what they have to say. Those guys are capable and  prescient. Click here.

+ A New York family of four all tested positive for coronavirus as state cases climb. Click here.

Your job

Your job is to protect yourself and your family. Hand washing. Not touching your face. Running from anyone coughing.

Here’s how it works:

The coronavirus is spread when an infected person sneezes or coughs, spraying droplets through the air. The sick person might sneeze directly in another person’s face or expel droplets widely, contaminating surfaces that healthy people touch before unknowingly spreading germs to their mouths or noses.

With effectively no testing kits, our previous tips to stay healthy are even more important.–Please read them again. Click here

This is what markets have done this week

They will fall again today — probably heavily.

Do you sell more? Do you sell puts? Do we sell short?

I’m not good in falling markets. I once shorted Boeing but covered it. Now it’s falling. I should have kept my short. I have sold XOM short and it’s in the money. I have bought SPXU — the triple S&P500 short. Today it will be in the money. And I have sold stuff that’s down 15% from where I bought it.

But I still have the bulk of my portfolio.

I believe it’s not good to sell into panic. And this is panic. Justifiable panic. But still panic. If they get this solved, in a year my portfolio will be up.

Another miserable attempt at shorting

Airlines are in trouble. Yesterday I sold 200 Delta Airlines short at $45.08. But then it started rising.  I panicked and bought it back at $45.00.

Hence, I made sixteen whole dollars. Eat your heart out.

Here is Delta yesterday. I bet today it will drop. I’m not good at being The King of Declining Markets.

GNRC has been a big winner

The family Christmassed 2019 at a ritzy resort in Anguilla. In the middle of the resort was a huge Generac emergency generator. I asked what it was for? They said they used it to pump the flooding from the hurricanes. I was impressed. I bought some Generac. This morning it’s still up 16% from where I bought it when I returned after Christmas.

Last night Cramer had them on. The story I heard was even more impressive than just emergency generators. Now they have power cells/batteries. I will buy more GNRC this morning. Their CEO was really impressive.

Australia is having a tough time.

First the bush fires. Then floods. Then cyclones. Now a shortage of toilet paper.

photo credit: Harry Czeiger, master photographer, Double Bay, Sydney

Personally, I don’t use toilet paper. I do my thing and then shower.

That may be too much information for today.

Markets just opened.

And my portfolio is down another 2.92%.

But I don’t have the virus — I hope.

My family doesn’t have it. I hope.

And I’ll play tennis this afternoon.

Earlier this week, I went got a flu booster shot and my second shingles shot from Dr Jerry Clements. I also visit my dermatologist and got stuff burned off. I don’t have any skin cancer, despite growing up in Australia. I explained to Dr Stephanie Tseng, dermo,  that I hated the sun. She said that was good. Keep hating it.

Yikes, I just checked. My portfolio is now down 3.39%.

Time to listen to Larry Kudlow who just said the downturn will be “temporary.”

And pigs will fly

My portfolio is now down 3.6%. Thank you Mr. Kudlow for the assurance.

My friend Dan Good just emailed, “Go to the zoo and feed the black swans.”

A reader just emailed this:

The ultimate protection. Just in.

See you Monday. — Harry Newton