Skip to content
 

Impeccable timing.

My timing is impeccable. Feeling depressed late last week, I sold more shares. And then this happened. A huge bounce. This is Nasdaq over Monday and Tuesday — the big bounce.

In short, Harry’s really good at picking stocks. Just do the opposite of what he says.

This is what the big bailout package contains, courtesy Chuck Schumer on TV this morning:

It’s $2+ trillion, The U.S.’s GDP in 2019 was $21.4 trillion. So, this bill is close to a 10% boost. I have no idea if it will be enough. I can only imagine that getting the money out there will be a bureaucratic nightmare. Remember Ronald Reagan’s famous quip, “I’m from the Federal Government and I’m here to help you.”

Will these monies and the Fed’s enormous injections be sufficient to boost stock prices for the next few months?  I frankly have no idea. But there are a lot of people who are jumping back in, viz the nearly 3,000 point rise in the Dow yesterday and so far today (early morning Wednesday). I’m tempted to believe it won’t last. We haven’t heard warnings or earnings for this second quarter. They’re likely to be bad.

I’ve covered all my shorts, including XOM and Boeing. I was lucky, I covered Boeing just as it began to jump.

I don’t understand why energy stocks are jumping. WTI crude is still under $25 a barrel.

I suspect much of the strong positive “action” in stocks today and yesterday is caused by machines, which account for 75% or so of daily trading. When it’s going up, buy. When it’s going down, sell. And front-run everybody’s orders. Yours and mine. Fine for machines. But if I tried that, I’d go nuts. I have enough frustration on the tennis court.

As I wrote yesterday, “When in doubt, stay out.” If tempted,, nibble tiny.

I wax philosophical

We’re alive. Everything else is irrelevant.

We earned it. We can lose it. We can earn it back. We have the brains and the energy.

For now, there’s real pain in watching the news, of living in constant fear, of watching close friends and relatives come down with it.

Dial up Netflix. Dial up Zoom and love your distant family.

This is a time for extreme diligence.  For ten foot physical distancing. We must protect ourselves and our families.

It’s we.  There is no one else. It’s our families.  There’s no cure. There’s no vaccine. There are no hospital beds.

I don’t want my hospital bed to be in the Javits Center. Being sick is really gruesome. Dying is apparently worse.

Good news from Australia

The first four of the 12 koalas rescued have been released into the eucalyptus forests of Kanangra-Boyd National Park  in New South Wales, Australia after recent rains resulted in enough food to support them. They eat eucalyptus leaves. There are a million cute koala videos on YouTube.

Finally a “cure” for the coronavirus

Read more here.

Here is a handsome koi fish

Uplifting forecast

This is George Carlin at his irreverent best

He’s talking about viruses and germs. Caution: This video contains Carlin’s usual four-letter words.

If you don’t see the screen shot of Carlin, click on this link. Here.

Yesterday was my 44th wedding anniversary.

I looked to buy Susan a beautiful gift to remember the date.  How about these?

This morning I bought a little SPXU, figuring today’s rally won’t last. I’m already up $124.95 — enough to buy a dinner for two. But we can’t go out, We “celebrated” our anniversary last night by watching Rachel Maddow on MSNBC.

Prince Charles just tested positive. He’s 72.

 

 

  • TomFromVa

    If I had to guess, I would say that we will likely see some new lows in the next month or so. Unless the disease turns around quickly I think we are about out of good news at least for a while. And bear in mind that the machines running the automated trades are based on AI, which includes faking out human investors.

  • Scooter

    Harry, just remember that the market is programmed to allow your emotions to work against you and in favor of them.

  • Mike Nash

    Harry, you have a real knack for selling and buying at exactly the wrong time.

  • gerryb

    We’re less than a week away from month and quarter end. According to Goldman Sachs, month end pension fund rebalancing will result in the need to buy over $210 billion in equities! The last couple of days of buying probably covered a lot of that.
    Market strategist Tony Dwyer stated today: “We have been talking about a post-crash relief rally that recoups at least 30% of the loss from peak as was the case in prior crashes that were similar in nature. That would suggest a relief rally target of SPX ~2575.”
    We closed at $SPX 2475 today. Mr. Dwyer intends to start buying on a retest of the lows.

    • Mike Nash

      I don’t think that’s a good strategy. THe market may not retest the lows.

      • gerryb

        Paul Tudor Jones said today: “he thinks the stock market could retest its lows in April, as CV-19 reaches the peak of its “epidemic curve,” but will ultimately be higher in as soon as three months.”
        You want to save some dry powder here.