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What’s it mean? A thinking process for ultra-changing times.

Buffett sold all his airline stocks because the virus changed the world and no one was traveling.

Several people made billions shorting oil, because the virus had changed the world and no one was traveling.

When telecom gear and long distance were de-regulated in the end-1960s, I said “What the world needs… is information on the about-to-be exploding telecom opportunities.” I started magazines and trade shows.

When the Internet came, my friend Emmet presciently bought zillions of www domain names, figuring that real estate would, one day, be worth zillions. They were.

When online came online, Shopify figured it had a huge opportunity helping the unwashed become washed. The stock is now over $600.

When the virus shut us down, there were companies helping to do business at home, viz Zoom Video and DocuSign.

Enough with the examples.

New Rules:

  + Don’t spend your days reacting to the idiocies of day-to-day Wall Street. You can’t win that battle.

  + Look for BIG trends.

  + Don’t expect to find them immediately.

  + You need patience. Matt waited three years before real estate prices dropped to his taste. The black swan man Nassim Taleb took a long-long term put on the S&P 500 reaching a ridiculously low price.  It reached a ridiculously low price in mid-April 2020. He cleaned up. But it took years of patient waiting.

  + One big bet is all you need. Marc Benioff’s SalesForce bought $100 million worth of Zoom stock at $36 a share when the company went public last April. Zoom’s stock price is now $143.  boosting the value of Salesforce’s stake to over $425 million.

   + Amazon online biz is booming Amazon packages are being stolen. There’s an opportunity. Look what i just bought on Amazon (where else?):

$179. Click here.

Oops. My mistake 

In Friday’s email I said we’d had over million die from the virus. Wrong. It’s really over one million infected. The latest number is of infections 1,189,845. Latest number of deaths in the U.S. is 68,633. More than military deaths in Vietnam.

I quickly fixed my mistake on the web site.

Former President Bush tweets

“In this time of testing, we need to remember a few things: First, let us remember we have faced times of testing before,” Bush said. “Following 9/11, I saw a great nation rise as one to honor the brave, grieve with the grieving, and to embrace unavoidable new duties.”

“Secondly, let us remember that empathy and simple kindness are essential, powerful tools of national recovery. Even at an appropriate social distance, we can find the way to be present in the lives of others,” Bush said in the three-minute video.

“Let’s remember that the suffering we experience as a nation does not fall evenly. In the days to come, it will be especially important to care in practical ways for the elderly, the ill, and the unemployed,” Bush said, referring to the heightened danger the elderly and those with preexisting medical conditions. “We serve our neighbor by separating from them.  We cannot allow physical separation to become emotional isolation. This requires us to not only be compassionate but creative in our outreach.

“Finally, let us remember how small our differences are in the face of this shared threat. In the final analysis, we are not partisan combatants, we are human beings equally vulnerable and wonderful in the sight of God. We rise or fall together,” Bush said.

President Trump predicts a vaccine by end-2020

A vaccine would be a huge plus for the stock market. It would also enhance his re-election, which is , of course, the reason he made the prediction.

The latest on covid-19

No one in the scientific community believes we’ll have a vaccine by end-December.

For the latest, read three articles in Sunday’s New York Times:

Get Ready for the Global Fight Over Vaccines
This isn’t just about saving lives. It’s also about power, profit and national prestige.

Click here.

+ What the Proponents of  ‘Natural’ Herd Immunity Don’t Say
Try to reach it without a vaccine, and millions will die.

Click here.

+ How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?
A vaccine would be the ultimate weapon against the coronavirus and the best route back to normal life. Officials like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert on the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, estimate a vaccine could arrive in at least 12 to 18 months.

Click here.

+ Could ‘Innate Immunology’ Save Us From the Coronavirus?
Researchers are testing whether decades-old vaccines for polio and tuberculosis could protect against infection.

Click here.

For the world covid-19 dashboard with all the up-to-date numbers, click here.

A bargain wireless headphone for only $60

I paid $300 for my excellent Bose wireless headphones. I should have bought these $60 Anker ones:

Click here.

Feeling couped up? Watch this:

Fun stuff

 

A high school in Taipei, Taiwan

Classes have been in session since late February.

I’m off to look for BIG Trends and to play tennis — for my 51st consecutive day of tennis of my quarantine.

I’m being told to buy two dozen eggs. Here, in the country, they have real eggs laid by real chickens.

Send me your BIG Trends. Send to Harry at HarryNewton dot com.

See you tomorrow.

  • Bruce Miller

    BIG trend for you Harry, Covid chicken eggs coming soon to Your quote “hide-out”

    Homestead

    52℉ A Few Clouds

    April 06, 2020

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    Here’s what poultry owners need to know about chickens and the coronavirus

    Julia Bayly | BDN

    There is no question chicks are cute and beg to
    be cuddled. But always take proper steps to wash hands immediately
    after to prevent the spread of disease like coronavirus.

    By Julia Bayly, BDN Staff •
    March 3, 2020 1:00 am

    Updated: March 3, 2020 3:24 pm

    Maine
    farmers, homesteaders and backyard poultry enthusiasts are getting
    ready to place their orders for this year’s chicks. But the annual
    ordering comes amid increasing concern over a new outbreak of a
    coronavirus, which can be carried by poultry, among other animals.

    Experts say that there is no cause to
    panic at the thought of bringing the virus home with your new birds.
    However, they are urging residents to prepare for the worst as they ramp up a response to deal with any possible outbreak.

    The current virus is a new version of a
    common strain that can cause cold-like symptoms in people or animals. It
    originated in Wuhan, China, and may have spread from animals, including
    chickens, pigs and bats. While it’s known that chickens can carry strains of coronavirus, there’s no evidence in the US of chickens being infected by the specific strain COVID-19.

    “I think it’s pretty important to be quite
    sure of [information] sources and data during this COVID-19 — or any
    other — disease outbreak,” Dr. Anne Lichtenwalner, director of the
    University of Maine Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory and professor of
    animal and veterinary science at the university, said using the official
    name of the new strain of coronavirus. “At the moment the [U.S. Centers
    for Disease Control and Prevention] is issuing guidance to be careful
    around pets if you or they seem ill.”

    Should you get new chicks?

    Don’t stop planning for your new chicks.
    To date, there is no indication of any increased risk of catching the
    virus from your existing flock or any new flock members. But that does
    not mean you should let down your guard. Even in a non-epidemic year,
    strains of coronavirus can pass from chickens and other animals to
    humans through physical contact.

    That is why, according to Dr. Dora Mills, former director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention and current senior vice president with MaineHealth, it’s crucial to always practice good hygiene around poultry.

    “In terms of human risk the coronavirus,
    like influenza, circulates among animals like poultry and swine,” Mills
    said. “Spring is one of those times people are thinking about getting
    chicks and, just as in any year, you need to keep some appropriate
    barriers between humans and chickens.”

    In addition to the possible risks posed by
    coronavirus, proper hygiene around chickens is also important because
    poultry carry dangerous bacteria like salmonella and campylobacter.

    Both of those bacteria affect millions of people in the United States every year, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
    and both can be fatal in extreme cases. At the very least, both
    bacteria can cause a great deal of digestive and intestinal discomfort,
    including diarrhea, stomach cramps and vomiting.

    Those bacteria, Mills said, can live on
    the chickens’ feathers and be easily transferred to humans through
    touch. The bacteria also live in the birds’ feces and be transferred to
    any surface on which a chicken decides to poop.

    So it’s always important in any year to
    stick to a rigorous and thorough hygiene program. Always wash your hands
    thoroughly after touching your chickens or any surface in the coop or
    anything with which your birds may have come in contact like waterers,
    feeders, bedding or newly collected eggs.

    Wash your hands with warm water and soap
    or use a hand sanitizer to disinfect your hands. Ideally, have one set
    of clothes or coveralls and pair of footwear used only for chicken
    chores. Then, when before you come back inside change out of those
    clothes into clean garments.

    The key, according to Lichtenwalner, is remaining hygienically vigilant at all times.

    “Really good biosecurity, getting chicks
    from an [National Poultry Improvement Plan] certified hatchery,
    excellent [flock] management and nutrition are all important to keep
    your home flock and your home happy and healthy,” Lichtenwalner said.

    The National Poultry Improvement Plan —
    or NPIP — is a voluntary health certification program in which breeders
    and hatcheries agree to have their birds and facilities inspected.

    What are Maine poultry sellers doing?

    Sellers of chicks like Janice Bouchard in
    Fort Kent, say they are not taking any increased steps this year as
    they await the arrival of the spring chicks and planned events around
    those arrivals.

    “I don’t think it will be a problem this
    year,” Bouchard said. “We are still having kids come to our petting zoo
    to pet the chicks and we will be as cautious as we always are.”

    Bouchard said she works to ensure anyone who touches any animal at her store washes their hands immediately after.

    Mills sees no reason for Bouchard to
    cancel her annual petting zoo, as long as strict hygiene protocols are
    in place and practiced.

    At Tractor Supply in Bangor, employee
    team leader Bob Cammack said they never let customers handle the chicks
    in the store, and always take biosecurity seriously.

    “We clean the [poultry] pens out twice a day,” he said. “Our employees always use hand sanitizer after handling the chicks.”

    Will there be enough chicks to go around?

    Despite global fears in the poultry
    market — China has destroyed thousands of chickens in an attempt to
    control the spread of coronavirus — neither Bouchard nor Cammack
    reported any issues with getting their chicks from their U.S. suppliers.

    “We have more than 1,000 chicks coming on
    March 6,” Cammack said. “There is no indication from the supplier that
    there are going to be any problems.”

    What does coronavirus look like in chickens?

    Coronavirus affects chickens’ respiratory
    tract, gut, kidneys and reproductive systems. It can also cause
    infectious bronchitis. Chicks that are infected at a young age may
    experience permanent damage to their oviducts, preventing them from ever
    laying eggs as an adult. In adults it can cause coughing, gasping for
    air, sneezing, watery eyes and swollen sinuses. It can also result in
    diarrhea and damage the kidneys of the birds.

    In humans, it has primarily affected the
    upper respiratory tract, including pneumonia in the lungs, coughing and
    shortness of breath, along with typical flu symptoms including fever.
    The CDC estimates symptoms can appear between two to 14 days after
    exposure.

    Will it become an epidemic in Maine’s chickens?

    Mills said if the coronavirus gains traction in Maine, there is the chance it could transfer from humans to backyard poultry.

    “We really don’t know at this point,” she
    said. “But the bottom line is any farm animals are not meant to be in
    close contact with humans [and] people should not have chicks or
    chickens living in their homes as pets.”

    Similar challenges we’ve faced

    In the summer of 2015, Maine faced a possible avian flu outbreak
    when the highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI virus, forced the
    euthanization of more than 49 million chickens and turkeys in the United
    States to control its spread.

    Avian flu carried little risk to humans
    but decimated commercial and turkey flocks in other states creating
    higher prices for consumers.

    Where to find more information

    The University of Maine Cooperative Extension maintains a database of publications on animal health, including poultry at poultry.extension.org.

    Mills recommends checking the CDC, the Maine CDC and the World Health Organization websites for updated information.
    “Information about proper hygiene around poultry is true any year,” Mills said. “

  • Mike Nash

    In fact it’s quite likely we will never have a vaccine. There’s still no vaccine for AIDS, cancer, etc. I think millions will die in America and it’s mostly Geroge W. Bush’s fault. Bush Jr and Obama dismantled the pandemic task force. President Trump valiantly tried to bring it back but with the virus coming rapidly there just wasn’t time. I get all my info on Fox News.

    • Dman

      You are a lunatic.

    • Tim Linecum

      “I get all my info on Fox News.” who would have guessed

  • Glenn

    Would be curious to get a blog report on what you are hearing and reading on Manhattan real estate, specifically, residential. I can’t see people wanting to purchase condos in Manhattan any time soon or other high concentrated areas like Chicago, San Fran etc. I will be surprised if we don’t see major declining home prices in major cities soon…Fortunate to have a second home in South Carolina to wait out shelter in place order in Chicago. Amazing the amount of New Yorkers I am seeing where I live in SC. You wouldn’t know there is a pandemic going on here versus being in a city.