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How to muddle through an “opportunistic” investment strategy. What should your “allocation” be?

Allocation is what they write books about and learned financial advisers opine on.

At my age (78), they say I should be 78% (or so) in bonds, which interest I will “need” to pay my living expenses.

But bonds today pay nothing. And even I can’t live on nothing.

If I buy stocks with a handsome dividend, I run the risk of it being cut. High dividend yields usually mean unstable dividends. Likely, the stock price will fall even further.

My investment “strategy” is “opportunistic.” That fancy word means you keep looking. Mostly that means staying “NO.” By now I’ve developed real phobias about a whole bunch of things — from “professionally managed” funds (of all ilk) to airlines, from energy stocks to cannabis, from mining to gold and silver.

Peruse my equity portfolio (updated) in the right hand column on the web site. Click here.There are far too many stocks. I know that. But today’s market is not fundamentals or value driven. It’s 100% pure emotion. Viz: my biggest gainer in this portfolio is up 78%. That’s nice. It sports a ridiculous P/E of 169.5. The stock? TTD — Trade Desk. I have no idea as to whether I should hold it, sell it, or buy more. I like it. Ditto for Amazon which sports a P/E of 146. Until July 10 it was on a rush to never-never land — $4,000. It’s come back since. I still like it. If I sell it, it will go up. If I hold it, it will probably go down.

I like tech stocks, so I buy many of them. When they move up, I often buy more. When they move down, I sometimes buy more. I bought some more TSM today after it fell 7.5%. I like the company and what it’s doing for Apple.

My overriding rule is if I like the stock and its business, then I should hold on. I should ignore the fluctuations. I’m learning this skill. It’s really hard.

I sold Tesla long ago. But then Warren Buffett sold his airlines way below where they are today. Up close, we all look like idiots.

I have bits and piece of syndicated real estate — both commercial and residential. Fortunately almost no retail (a fluke) and not much in New York City (another fluke).

Typically, your own business is your best investment. But I don’t have one of them at present.

Anyone got any better ideas?

Wait there, Nasdaq is dropping. I wonder why?

My prediction: Here until Christmas.

If you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with.

Manhattan theater, ballet, restaurants and shopping are loves, but are now all out.  Mostly closed. Manhattan biking remains, but not much new to see — other than varieties of plywood.

There’s travel. Friends who’ve been on commercial planes say they’re a disaster — jam packed, with coughing passengers using their face masks as sleeping masks.

Country tennis, chipmunks, deer, squirrels, wild turkey, and birds, millions of them, including the wonderful sounds of the cardinal and the diligence of the robin mother taking care of her eggs.

Google says their employees should work from home until summer 2021. By then I’ll be onto my 500th game of tennis. And my New York apartment will be worth 50% of what I paid for it. It’s now worth probably 75%, if anyone wants to buy it. No one does.

Hoisted on my own petard

“Let’s plant a flowering tree to ‘celebrate’ our Covid summer in the country,” I declared.

By the time my dream got processed by the powers-that-be we had four baby trees.

This is one of them.

And I have to water them. Constantly. There are 25 gallon buckets and 100 ft long hoses that have to be schlepped from one tree to the other.

All this for four flowering trees — none of which have flowered yet.

This is one of the family of chipmunks that messes up our tennis game by running across the court in the middle of a point. Look closely at his cheek. It’s huge.

We feed him bird seed, which he stuffs into his cheek, scampers off to his home, only to return for more seeds. He’s going to have a happy winter.

My daughter Claire streams education to her daughter, my granddaughter.

It comes from a company called 

which . Here’s the course Claire signed Sophie up for:

Sophie’s class is here. 

You can earn up to $50 an hour teaching classes for Outschool.

Useful warnings

+ Don’t be suckered into cheap per month subscriptions. Before you notice, they upbill your credit card. And then you’ll have to cancel. Good luck.

+ Be wary of what you put on auto-bill. Your credit card company can’t stop charges that are auto-billed. Only your vendor can.

If you’re considering flying, watch this video

I’m not big on guns. But this fellow is incredibly clear about his rights

And very impressive. Watch all of it.

Don’t forget to breathe as you watch this awesome video

The headland and lighthouse at Byron Bay, New South Wales, is the most easterly point of the Australian Mainland and therefore is the first place in Australia to watch the full moon rise. This video is made up of 1038 frames slowed down. Impressive.

Today’s Covid conundrum

If I social distance myself from my refrigerator — with marks on the kitchen floor — I can no longer open it.

This may solve one problem — my bulging waistline.

Sorry about this long column. The videos are really good. Watch them tonight.

I hope to touch base again.   I hope not to explode today. — Harry Newton

 

 

 

  • Dman

    Harry……If you think NYC is in big trouble, just wait, Trump is allowing the evil Democrats to expose themselves to all America. Your filthy evil Democrats have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO LOSE, so they will continue to destroy. Once AG Barr and other AG’s who have been conducting investigations for more than 2 years begin to come forward with the truth, well then your evil fake understanding will have no choice but to confront reality. It’s going to be hilarious watching the likes of you contemplate……

    The Great Awakening
    Trust The Plan
    WWG1WGA
    Dark To Light
    Q

    ……..there’s nothing you can do to stop Trump.