In Search of the Perfect Investment

It’s hard to pick stocks today. “Value” doesn’t work. Most P/E don’t work. They’re all in nosebleed territory  — if they exist at all (i.e. the company is losing money.)

So we’re back to “momentum” investing. What goes up will continue going up.

There’s usually a “story.” I”ve been pushing tech stocks. They make up the bulk of our portfolio. They have two characteristics: they’re scaleable and I understand what they do (or think) I do.  YOu can look through our portfolio (right hand column) on my web site and see obvious booming names, like Amazon, DocuSign nd Zoom Video that do well when we work at home. They’re cloud stocks. You don’t need to go shopping (and get sick). Do it all from home.

Lately we’ve had the Covid vaccine/therapeutic stocks. They’re been popular but they’re much more volatile. Buy at the wrong time and you can lose mega-bucks. Look what happened to hot vaccine make Novavax in recent days. A Wall Street analyst said it was too high, because it was too high. (They gotta earn their keep.) And the stock plummeted. Here’s the latest ten days. Not pretty.

Recently Apple split. And its stock rocketed. Ditto for Tesla. So this is the latest stock-buying craze. Here’s a chart from Cramer last night. His theory is simple: If splits work for Apple and Tesla, they got to work for other high-price stocks:

All are in our portfolio.

These are good companies. But there are also “good” companies that are not good stocks. I owned a little Cisco. Until I realized it sold to a lot of slow-moving large companies. I sold Cisco. It was a dumb buy. I don’t own a lot of “good” companies that make lots of money from their traditional business, then waste it all on stupid acquisitions — e.g. AT&T and Verizon.

A few days ago, the market dropped and I wrote “Stocks on Sale.” A bunch of readers said I’ve said that before. It worked before. But it wasn’t going to work again. Well, it did. So there.

I still believe there are bargains in good stocks with fast-growing sales in industries I understand. I don’t understand covid-19 stocks. One reader “discovered” the key. You buy after big insider purchases. He’s racking up huge gains.

I do like Cramer’s pick of Emergent (EBS). It’s got a profitable diversified drug biz. . I was up at 4 AM this morning listening to its latest conference call. I was convinced and bought some this morning, even though it may be way overpriced. Fidelity says its P/E is 40.4.

Your bank account will be hacked.

Not “IF”, but “When.”  You may or may not lose money. Depends a lot on your bank. The big ones are better with security.

There are two “solutions:”

+ Get two factor authentication. You must enter two passwords before  you (or anyone else) can get to your money.

+ Be wary about the password rememberers. Gooogle Chrome can remember your passwords. So can any number of services. All your passwords are stored somewhere in the cloud, hackable by smart Russian hackers.

To my mind, typing different passwords in twice is the way to go — if you can organize your bank.

Once upon a time, this web site got hacked. Then we put in two factor authentication. And the hacking stopped in a heart beat. Never again.

I’m trying to get two factor authentication from JPMorgan Chase. I”m a member of their Private Client Bank. Getting two factor authentication with them is like pulling teeth. I still don’t have it. Does anyone know anyone there? I’ve even tried emails to Jamie Dimon. Nothing! Niente.

More about QAnon 

It’s a conspiracy theory claiming that world leaders, Democrats, and “deep state” U.S. intelligence officers are all involved in a global child sex trafficking ring that President Trump and his supporters are working to expose and destroy.

This nonsense fascinates me. Sadly too many people (like millions) are reading about QAnon and, apparently, believing it. Excerpts from a New York Times piece:

+ Many of them believed that President Trump was on the verge of exposing “Pizzagate” or “Pedogate,” their terms for a global conspiracy involving a ring of Satan-worshiping, child-molesting criminals led by prominent Democrats.

+ QAnon adherents believe that Hillary Clinton and her cronies are kidnapping and eating children (yes, eating them) in order to harvest a life-extending chemical from their blood. (I wish this one worked. Sadly, no.– Harry)

+ Last week, an Associated Press article about a $35 million Trump administration grant to organizations that house trafficking survivors became one of the most-shared stories on Facebook, after QAnon groups picked it up and cited it as evidence that President Trump’s secret crusade against elite pedophiles was underway.

+ Recently, some activists have marched in cities around the country demanding an end to child exploitation. Among them were QAnon believers, toting signs with messages like “Hollywood Eats Babies.”

You can read the NYTimes piece here. We may soon have a QAnon believer is Congress. Her name is Marjorie Taylor Greene. Trump strongly supports her. You can read more here.

Stuff I like and have bought

+ Canondale Quick Neo SL2. Gorgeous bike. Surprise. Surprise. It’s got a battery (in the thick downtube) and it’s effortless to ride.

Perfect town bike, if you don’t want to get on virus-infested buses and subways.

You can attach your iPhone. It gives you speed, distance, etc. via bluetooth. It’s got disc brakes and oodles of high-tech. Now you know what I like it. Cost $2400, if you can find one in your size. All bikes are backordered until whenever.

+ The best sunscreen. Contains 5% titanium dioxide and 10% zinc oxide.

Great for tennis. Buy here.

+ The Furnam PL-8C  surge and spike arrestor. If you have a German furnace, then you need this Furman. Before I got it, our furnace got hit by a summer storm and $3,300 to repair our furnace’s electronics. After I got this $140 device, I haven’t had a single problem. We’ve had oodles of summer lightning thunderstorms. Furnam advertised that its exclusive SMP technology provides the highest level of surge & spike protection available. I don’t disagree with them.

Buy it, click here.

+ YouTube TV. They just jacked the price up $5 to $64.99 a month. It’s still worth it. I like:

— The picture and sound quality. As good as anything you’ll get from cable or satellite.

— It’s portable. Take your laptop anywhere. No extra charge.

— Six simultaneous users. Just like NetFlix. But not like DirecTV which requires another rented cable box.

— It’s super reliable. Much better that DirecTV which crashes every time it sprinkes.

— It’s got AI. Want to start at the beginning? Want to join now? Want us to record the entire ATP tennis series.

— You can skip commercials, pause, go back, etc.

Better health

+ I woke up this morning with a horrible leg cramp. Problem: Not enough water. I drunk two big glasses. It went away.

+ Portion control is the problem. A simple trick: Split in two what they serve you. Eat the other half the next day.

+ Lose weight. You probably won’t need a new hip, a new knee or more back surgery.

+ Sugar is poison, though tasty. It also messes up your athletic fitness.

+ All my friends claim to be “in the best fitness of their entire life.” Without commuting, they now have more time for exercise, yoga and napping.

Comments on today’s world

And finally a solution to the imponderable

Today’s tennis will be our 152nd of the Pandemic. We teach each other new strokes, and think we get better. (I don’t. He does.)

P.S. This website is hosted by an amazing company based in Bulgaria and owned by a Bulgarian. They are super good.

See you tomorrow. Harry Newton