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Down again. New rules from everyone and their uncle. None of which make sense.

Down again yesterday. Looks like the algos got wind and exacerbated the down:

Here’s the last 10 days in tech stocks. It’s been a roller coaster — typical of September, one of the worst months.

But, so far, this year our favorite tech stocks are still doing fine.

OK. What should you do? There is no answer. Your guess is as good as all the talking heads on BubbleVision.

After saying hold Apple forever, Cramer’s now sold some of it. He’s 15% in cash (for what reason I don’t know.)

My friend Ed, commenting on my blog of seven days ago, writes:

There are four possibilities: Biden wins and Dems win the Senate, Biden wins but Reps keep Senate, or trump wins w or w/o the Senate. Ross is right that scenario #1 is a negative for the market.  But since both races – white house and senate – are toss-ups the odds are only 1 in 4 of scenario #1.  Looked at the other way, the odds are 75% that the election outcome will not affect tax rates and will not be a concern for the market.

Ross is crazy if he thinks that under scenario #1 he’ll be able to sell on the day after the election.  The result will not be clear, maybe for weeks.  If a Dem sweep ultimately becomes clear it will panic the stocks that have had the best long term performance, esp tech.  Why? Because the capital gains tax break will go away.  But the selling pressure will only last until Dec 31st.  And a Dem sweep will be very bullish on Jan 1st as a huge relief package will get passed fast. $3 Trillion+.  Higher corporate tax rates are a one-time adjustment (less than 10%) and aren’t a big deal.  I think a relief package will come no matter who wins what.  But the biggest package would come w scenario #1. The point is – any sell-off after the election would be a big buying opportunity.  I think there will be a huge rally after Jan 1st.

Complicated stuff. Ed is cerebral, but very successful, largely by holding technology stocks through thick and thin.

There is  a possibility that the Feds might deliver another stimulus. There is some talk that McConnell wants to put the limited stimulus bill to a vote to protect vulnerable senators from his party against Democratic accusations that they had turned down any additional help for the US economy.

Here are my thoughts.

+ Have a little cash to snag some of your favorite stocks if they get cheap. Really cheap.

+ Sell now — just before Rosh Hashanah, which is a week from today. Buy back at Yom Kippur ten days on. This probably works as well as any other old wives tale. But Wall always needs talking points. This one is popular at this time of year.

+ Don’t try to predict this. Presidential elections don’t affect the market. Trump was going to tank the market when he got elected. But didn’t. It rose. Moreover, markets do better under the Democrats.

+ Never worry about something you can’t control (or predict). That includes the market.

+ Don’t get suckered into believing the grass is better on the other side. I did that earlier this year. The greener-grass  fund just reported a gigantic 4.1% loss in August, bringing their  loss year to date to an incredible 5.6%. Last fund ever I invest in. The grass is absolutely not greener on the other side.

My present rule is: Hold onto everything, unless I’m down 10% or more on a stock that’s attracting bad ink and bad press — in which case sell it. That rule seems to work. The few stocks I’ve sold are now selling below what I sold them for. Except Tesla.

Looks like it’s going up today.

Here’s why Peloton is doing well

The is granddaughter Eleanor on the family Peloton doing a scenic ride in Mount St. Helens.

PTON just smashed earnings. We own it.

Useful iPhone Tips

+ Turn on WiFi calling. You cell calls will go over the Internet and sound better.

+ Sick of the iPhone’s AutoCorrect? You can switch it off. I did. You’ll still get suggestions. But your prose won’t be destroyed.

+ Use your iPHone as a magnifying glass. You have to turn that on. Settings/General/Accessibility. Once set up, triple tap.

+ Captio is the best iPhone ever. Type or dictate thought. Hit the button. Bingo, it sends you an email. Fast.

Hoisted on my own petard

My dear friend Steve wrote me:

Beautiful photo of Yosemite in your blog.

The bad news is, apparently it’s currently shrouded in smoke from the California wildfires.

Here’s a PBS photo of it.

Here’s my photo — and my caption: My favorite place in the whole world

So much for visiting California. Here’s an incredible photo of what’s happening there.

The C.D.C. recommends limiting exposure to smoke by staying indoors with windows and doors closed and running air-conditioners in recirculation mode so that outside air isn’t drawn into your home.

Doctors are recommending leave. You don’t want to breath this air.

Thoughts on life 

He deliberately played down the coronavirus

He didn’t warn the country of the pandemic. He didn’t prepare the country for the pandemic. Nearly 200,000 people have already died. It’s an amazing failure of a presidency. The worst in modern times.

This is from the Atlantic

Why Trump Supporters Can’t Admit Who He Really Is.
Nothing bonds a group more tightly than a common enemy who is perceived as a mortal threat.

Click here: why-trump-supporters-can-t-admit-who-he-really-is-9-Sep-2020

My life

I played my 180th game of tennis yesterday. Yesterday our neighbor saw three cubs and a mother bear on our property. She’s says she’s now seen 11 in the last year, including six cubs. Here’s one of them.

In 30+ years, I’m still waiting my first sighting. I guess I’ll have to grin and bear it. (!!)

See you Monday. — Harry Newton

  • Eddie Buckley

    Re: The Atlantic hack job – it’s bullshit. President Trump eliminated the world’s deadliest terrorists, reformed the VA, and loves the military, he has paid for the funerals of fallen service members. Stick to stocks Harry Newton, Hillary Clinton was a lousy candidate, who ran a lousy campaign. You should be taking your cheap shots at her.

  • Mark Smitz

    Bitter’s not a good look for you Harry.

    To set the record straight, Obama was the worst in modern times.

  • TomFromVa

    I understand why people are anti-Trump. The problem is that if Dems sweep, we will get reparations (together with more divisiveness and rocket-fueled white supremacy), demands for reparations for every other group imaginable such as native Americans, Hispanics, Asians, Eskimos etc; higher taxes, increased affirmative action likely including quotas in nearly all areas of life and business, a higher degree of politicized prosecutions targeting gun owners, sexual harassment, “hate” crimes such as not using the proper pronoun; and the continued breaking of the boundaries of decency as has already occurred in hip hop and the latest example being “Cuties”. In general, the radical left will feel validated to pursue whatever theological agenda they can come up with; you will be spit on if you dont wear Black Lives Matter shirts, most statures will be torn down and most buildings renamed, crime and violence will increase, the poor (and everyone else) will get poorer, education will complete its transition to indoctrination, and the spiral will be ever downward.

    But maybe I’m being too optimistic.

    • harrynewton

      You really believe all this? I notice you’ve conveniently not talked about 190,000 people dead from Covid-19 and those who will have substantial long-term health consequences.

      • Big Anthony

        I am with Tom, you are naive if you feel this insane aggressiveness to all normal life will not continue to be assaulted. Buy your guns now and plan to use them. This all starts with the brainwashing in education now. Charters are the way to go. BTW your jacked up 190K number has been discredited all around go check even the CDC (99% donations to democrats fyi) it is 9K and actually of the 9K they do not disclose motorcycle accidents, heart attacks or other factors, which magically have never happened since this started. Fentanyol deaths any more? Nah just a democrat lock down for society, get used to it already exposed that come Nov 4 if Biden wins OPEN it UP!

      • TomFromVa

        You dont believe it?

        Yes, COVID is nasty, no we didnt do a good job and mostly no, that doesnt change anything that I said above. But if COVID is your only concern, be glad you arent in Belgium, Spain, Brazil, UK, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, or Chile – all with per capita deaths higher than ours.

        But in five years, COVID will be a statistical blip in history – but Leftists never let go. Ask anyone from Cuba, China, North Korea, VietNam – even Russia couldn’t quite shake it off.

        Here’s a clue – if you have to build a wall to keep people out, you are a good country. If you have to build a wall to keep them in, you aren’t. Simple enough?

      • TomFromVa

        Harry – since you are so interested in COVID, here is an article that is close to home for you – let me know how you like it

        https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuomo-covid-new-york-coronavirus-de-blasio-shutdown-timing-11599836994

      • Cobbie

        Per CDC data – only about 8,000 deaths attributed to only Covid-19 – the rest had other factors such as cancer, diabetes, COPD, obesity, emphysema, even trauma from accidents, et al….
        Maybe you should know of what you speak…your a tool of the left my man…

      • Tom from CA

        You really believe everything the media says about Trump and Trump administration? Two sides of the same coin of corruption.

        Take out NY and USA is doing far better than most of the world. You can thank Gov. Cuomo for that, who IMHO should be criminally prosecuted for his role in sending COVID patients into nursing homes. You don’t hear your media bringing up this point, right?