This blog is about investing — what to invest in and what not to invest in.
The first rule of investing is not to lose money. Hence one thing I’ve done — again and again — is to list areas that I don’t invest in (and you shouldn’t either). In recent times, those areas have included energy to cannabis, from banks to airlines, from cryptocurrency (e.g. bitcoin) to cruise lines.
Smarter people than me make money in my “No-Go” industries. But. my tiny brain can’t handle the gotchas that pop up regularly to kill the investment.
Which brings me to Donald Trump. This evening we have the first Presidential debate. The press has had a field day with the incredible reporting by the New York Times on Trump’s tax returns of recent years.
There’s much brouhaha about the fact that he paid only $750 in taxes in each of two recent years. Which compares miserably to what normal people like policemen, firefighters, nurses, teachers paid. They paid manyfold more than what Trump paid.
The press is calling him a “Tax Dodger.” He’s not. He’s simply a lousy businessman. It’s the huge losses he’s incurred on his failed businesses that have enabled him to pay so few taxes. His lack of taxes tells us what a bad businessman he really is.
I put his “brilliant” businesses into four categories:
+ The casinos in Atlantic City. I’m sure you can make money in casinos. But Atlantic City? I’ve been Vegas a zillion times and I love it. But Atlantic City, no way. It’s a dreary town with nothing to do and no redeeming features.
+ Hotels. Of all real estate categories, hotels fall at the bottom of the profitability scale. Compare it to an office building. I can rent space for a year, or two or three with one transaction, called a lease. A hotel needs to rent its space every night. And the marketing department necessary to help with renting to conventions, wedding, bar mitzvahs, etc. is gargantuan. Large and expensive.
+ Golf courses. For several years I had a house in a gated golfing community in Indian Wells, California Talk about a lousy business with a bunch of perennially grouching, hyper-entitled clients. Shall I talk about upkeep? Shall I mention the 148 or so competitors all within few miles in the Coachella Valley. You’d have to be nuts to be in the golf business.
+ Other businesses — from Trump University to a shuttle airline, to Trump Steaks, to Trump the Fragrance, to Trump Chocolate. Can you imagine how much any us know about these businesses? And Donald knows even less. Gotchas up the ying yang.
No wonder the man has racked up losses — more than another businessman in the U.S., perhaps the world. A dubious record for the Guiness Book of Records.
Why does he persist? Chalk it up a gigantic ego and a confidence that knows no bounds and no sign of being beaten down by reality. He is a stable genius. He knows better than everyone else. He’s told us that many times.
A successful businessman starting a new business must have the skills to marshal the resources, people and knowledge to start and grow that new business. People like Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk have those skills. Trump clearly doesn’t.
And that’s why he’s bungled the Administration’s response to the coronavirus. And killed 200,000+ Americans. Something I personally will never be able to forgive him for. His ego still believes he can manage the response and solve the gigantic damage it’s wreaked on the American economy. Somewhere around 15 million Americans are now out of work. There are families who literally are going hungry — because this one man didn’t tell us what he knew about the pandemic and how serious it would become — because he didn’t want to “create panic.” That’s what he told Bob Woodward many, many months ago.
Of all his ventures, the most successful was the Apprentice TV show.
It was a huge success. But not because it sold reality. But because it effectively sold fantasy. (Which Trump is good at.)
The New York Times today leads off a story on the Apprentice with these three paragraphs:
From the back seat of a stretch limousine heading to meet the first contestants for his new TV show “The Apprentice,” Donald J. Trump bragged that he was a billionaire who had overcome financial hardship.
“I used my brain, I used my negotiating skills and I worked it all out,” he told viewers. “Now, my company is bigger than it ever was and stronger than it ever was.”
It was all a hoax.
When you watch the debate tonight, remember that you’re a better businessman than Donald J. Trump. And you could have been a better President. You would not have lied to the American public over 20,000 times.
And, at the very least you would have listened to your experts and not denigrated them because you knew better.
Which you clearly didn’t.
Fall is peaking in Columbia County, NY
Here are some photos from this afternoon, shot on my iPhone 11 Pro Max during a nice light rain.
The French Tennis Open is on The Tennis Channel, which is available through YouTube TV, at no extra charge.
Enjoy the debate. See you tomorrow. — Harry Newton
