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Investment lessons from the pandemic. The best place to put money into the Georgia run-off election

Lessons from the pandemic

+ Expect a Black Swan event. They’re arriving more often. And getting more severe.

+ People are reacting more crazy, less predictable.

+ Asset values are more volatile than ever. Hence snagging cheap ones can be very profitable.

+ Assets you can sell quickly are key — if you suddenly need cash.

+ Fixed interest is no interest.

+ A little cash is useful for peace of mind and snagging things cheap (like Apple today).

+ Diversification in your investments means lower return, but more safety (a.k.a. peace of mind).

+ Stressing out over events you can’t control only gets you more stress. Play tennis.

+ There’s always a sane, logical, patient person (e.g. Bob Kantor) who can talk down your anger at your dumb investment that you think is going awry.

+ There’s no relationship between liquidity and rate of return. If anything, the less liquid, the lower the return. (It wasn’t always that way.)

+ There’s always light at the end of the tunnel — if you organize your investments (and your psyche) to last that long – see the points above.

How to fix the economy — my (impeccable?) logic

Federal unemployment benefits and other Covid relief payouts are running out.

We urgently need another stimulus.

The new administration will get us another stimulus.

The House will go for it.

The Senate will go for it — if it’s in Democrat hands.

The only way to assure that is to win the run-off election in Georgia on Tuesday, January 5, 2021

The two democratic candidates — Ossoff and Warnock — have oodles of money. They don’t need your money.

A better way is to give money to TurnUp.us, an organization devoted to lifting voter turnout in Georgia.

TurnUp.us is not Democrat. It’s not Republican. It’s simply aimed at getting more young people to vote. (My guess is that more young people will vote Democrat.)

In the general election, TurnUp reached 9 million young voters in key states, including 1.1 million in Pennsylvania. TurnUp filled over 1,000 volunteer shifts of young people texting and calling to voters in key states. In the run-up to the election TurnUp saw more than 1,500 young people using our mobile app for volunteering to get out the vote in key states. TurnUp also moved quickly to mobilize ballot curing volunteers. Youth voter turnout was critical in multiple battleground states including Georgia. Youth turnout was almost 10 points higher than in 2016.

Here are their present goals:

+ Register as many of the 23,000 17.5 year olds who will be 18 by Election Day as possible to vote before the December 7 registration deadline.

+ Turn out as many young voters of color as possible to vote in Georgia.

What they’re doing — their words

+ A mobile app to activate a national network of young people to sign up for impactful actions in Georgia.

+ More than 200 young people volunteering with our organization from around the country, and we are engaging them to increase turnout in Georgia.  We also have many of them on the ground in Georgia serving as ambassadors at college and high school campuses, working with local businesses to support turnout efforts, registering voters and recruiting/hiring more organizers. Funds will be used to support recruitment, training, the work of organizers, and our strategies including the printing and distributing of materials in unique and locally targeted ways.

+ We are replicating our successful digital ad campaign on Snapchat and TikTok that we ran in the key states in the general election. For each dollar we can reach three young voters in Georgia. $10,000 would enable us to reach 30,000 young potential voters. Our efforts on digital ads were particularly useful in Pennsylvania, a state we targeted, where we reached 1.1 million young voters and youth turnout increased at least 10 points.

They tell me they are raising $300,000 to help their platform reach a critical mass of youth in Georgia and create historic voter turnout of 18-29 year olds, who are essential.

With that kind of support, we can reach 1 million high potential young voters in Georgia that will be the key to increasing voter turnout. Update from the last 7 days:

  • 557,000 young potential voters reached via social media with voter registration information.
  • 3,006 17.5 year-olds that will be 18 by Election Day connected with a voter registration application.
  • 234 youth TurnUp volunteers and app users calling about 12,000 young voters in Georgia to help them register and request a ballot, spending a total of 400 hours.

Please send TurnUp money today (I did): Click here. 

You want drama? A stimulus is the ONLY way to get this economy moving. Give TurnUp money.

Do it now.

I sound breathless. To my mind, it’s crystal clear. Give TurnUp money today. Please. Click here.

Comments on the virus

Here’s a picture of a Republican Save our Majority Rally in Georgia last week. Notice how many of these lovely people are not wearing masks. Notice that it’s indoors and there’s absolutely no social distancing.

Overworked El Paso-based nurse Ashley Bartholomew, said “We can’t fight the pandemic of misinformation and the pandemic of COVID at the same time.”

Many of these people will get sick and demand hospital beds that probably won’t be there for them. What don’t these people understand?

Please stay home for Thanksgiving.

Do NOT travel.

Susan and I are staying home, and enjoying Thanksgiving by ourselves and through Zoom our children and grandchildren.

I’m off to call all my friends to send money to TurnUp. I’m energized.

P.S. It’s always easier to read this blog on the web through your browser. Go here.

See you tomorrow. — Harry Newton