Will stocks drop, when the economy opens (and there are other things to spend your money on, like trips and restaurants)?
Will stocks drop, when inflation rears its head and the Feds decide to reign in their hefty loving?
Will stocks drop, when someone looks at their screen and sees Tesla with a P/E of 1,366.08, with ServiceNow at 986.87 and Shopify at 914.46?
My sage friend, Bob K. , who’s been picking stocks through many crises — Black Monday 1987, dot com 2000, flash crash 2010, 2008, etc — was asked by his super intelligent wife, Jane, “Why do stocks fall?”
Bob answered “Because there are more sellers than buyers.”
That smart-ass answer almost cost him a divorce.
He’s right, of course.
And she doesn’t ask that question any longer. She knows the answer.
These days everyone and their uncle asks me how should they invest today, given today’s ridiculously high stock prices.
Dan recently sold some real estate for $1.5 million. How should he invest his ill-gotten gains? He won’t take my advice, since he knows everything. But this is what I told him:
+ Take $500,000 and buy VGT.
+ Take $1,00,000 and spread it evenly among Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, Square, Shopify, PayPal, Generac, Google, Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and United Health.
I figure this package would return him 20+% this year.
If you want to read more about stock market crashes, read Wikipedia here.
The big thing you learn about stock market crashes is that stock prices always come back. Sometimes faster than other times. Don’t believe me? Look at today’s chart of Nasdaq. I was very depressed at around 10:45 AM. But then more buyers appeared and….
Thank you Jane K. You made my day.
Is Harry Newton a liberal?
I’ve been called a liberal. I’ve been called a New York liberal. And I’ve been called a New York Jewish liberal.
All these terms are meant to be insulting. They do their job. Insults sting. I’d like everybody to love me.
To explain…
I don’t get paid for writing this blog.
But if you bought some of my recommendations, you’d be up handsomely, as I am.
I think of myself as a practical conservative. I pushed the two Democrats from Georgia — who ultimately won — and gave my weight behind Biden and Harris for a reason. The alternative — Trump/Pence — had been an abject failure at handling the pandemic and the economy. It’s not good politics to kill 400,000 Americans and to tank the economy.
Could I personally as a businessman have handled the pandemic better? Yes. Categorically Yes. Could I have juiced the economy better? Categorically Yes.
When I ran companies, my focus was on figuring the key ways to ensure success — making enough money to pay the expenses and the salaries, and grow a nice future for everyone.
But Donald Trump, our much vaunted conservative “businessman,” ignored trying to figure the keys, preferring to trivialize the pandemic, and to slough off his responsibilities for fixing it to the totally unqualified states. Once he failed at the pandemic, he predictably tanked the economy, losing millions of jobs.
When Biden came along with a focused, logical way of handling the pandemic and the economy, my choice, as a conservative, was bleedingly obvious. Go with someone with a business plan.
The saddest part of all this is that Republicans in Congress still haven’t got the message. They refuse to even adopt simple policies — wearing a mask, social distancing, etc. The January 6th assault on the Capitol will turn out to be one of the largest pandemic superspreader events ever. Ignoring science is incredibly short-sighted. How will believing in QAnon fix the pandemic or save the economy? Hence “conservative” Harry Newton voted for the Democrats.
By the way, stockmarkets have done better under Democratic administrations than under Republican ones in the last 50+ years.
The greatest house saver ever
Monday afternoon, I get an email:
I beetle downstairs. Sure enough water is pouring in. I stop the leak, re-set the gadget and receive this comforting email.
You can buy this indispensable gadget for $55 here. I have three of them.
Ask when you rent a helicopter
when you rent a helicopter, as does it have a Terrain Awareness and Warning System, which will signal when your helicopter is in danger of crashing into a mountain. Kobe Bryant’s helicopter didn’t have such a system on board and the idiot pilot was flying through heavy clouds just before he crashed, killing all nine people on board.
New TV Show for Lou Dobbs
Giuliani To Be First Guest of new show, Lou Dobbs Total Landscaping.
A nice place to visit
Susan and I cruised on a small boat to “America’s last frontier.” Can you imagine the non-pleasure of tootling round Alaska on this monster? I scanned the photo from a Princess Cruises Lines ad in CondeNast Traveler. I cannot get over the size of this thing. Yuch.
The Australian Tennis Open is playing
It’s playing on The Tennis Channel and ESPN2. Most everyone is playing, including Nadal and Djokovic, but not Federer.
Favorite recent cartoon
It’s been a hectic week. See you tomorrow — Harry Newton
