Up in Maine with the grandkids. Bad Papi (that’s me) brought “foods” the kids like. But the mother (my daughter) is fuming.
The kids actually like muenster cheese and peach pie. Today I’ll make them pancakes with sugar and jam. They remember that “healthy” food from last time.
Last time, a long, long time ago.
The Pandemic Stockmarket is over. Here are two exhibits:
Zoom is actually making a little money — but a P/E of 143 makes my nose bleed.
When I look at our portfolio, I see big performers like NET and CRWD which have eased back. I still own these two. I don’t own ZM and PTON. I also sold out of MO, my big dividend stock on rumors that the Feds intend to make cigarettes non-addictive. (Good luck there.) MO was my great dividend stock… I got out at a profit, albeit a tiny one.
This is no longer a long-term “buy and hold” market. It’s become a short-term “buy and hold.” There’s an emerging urgency (like that?) to watch the news and jump or dump when the headlines turn sweet or sour.
Right now they’re promoting “opening plays.” We have LUV and JETS (an ETF for airlines). We don’t have NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Lines). But one day soon the Feds will let the cruise ships sale and NCLH will go higher.
Sitting here in Maine looking out at the gray waters of the Casco Bay, I’m struck by a profound sense of peacefulness and an abject lack of creativity in picking stocks.
I’m not in crypto in general or bitcoin in particular. Bitcoin could soon be $20,000 (it’s now $55,357.60). But it could also be $200,000. There are plenty of learned forecasts calling for a 50% decline some time soon (not specified when).
When in doubt, stay out. Good philosophy.
Credit Suisse today posted a Q1 loss of $275 million after the Archegos blowup and says it expects more pain from the fund’s implosion (and Credit Suisse’s awesome stupidity). The Archegos collapse offset what otherwise would have been a strong quarter.
When in doubt, stay out.
Thomas Friedman and Joe Biden visit Afghanistan
They were there together in 2002. As they prepared to leave Afghanistan with help from the U.S. military, Friedman eyed the room and wrote:
“I looked around the room at the Special Forces A-teams that were there and could see America’s strength hiding in plain sight. It wasn’t smart missiles or night-fighting equipment. It was the fact that these Special Forces teams each seemed to be made up of a collection of Black, Asian, Hispanic, and white Americans.
It is our ability to blend those many into one hard fist that is the real source of our power. This is precisely what Afghans have not been able to do in recent decades, and it has left them weak, divided, and prey to outsiders.”
For the full Friedman piece from a few days ago, click here.
George W. Bush (remember him?) recently wrote a wonderful piece:
Immigration is a defining asset of the United States. Here’s how to restore confidence in our system.
For Bush’s piece, click here.
Somewhat tasteless, but a definite solution
After 40 years of marriage, a husband and wife came for counseling.
The wife went into a tirade listing every problem they had ever had in the years they had been married. On and on and on: neglect, lack of intimacy, emptiness, loneliness, feeling unloved and unlovable, an entire laundry list of unmet needs she had endured.
Finally, the therapist got up, walked around the desk and after asking the wife to stand, he embraced and kissed her long and passionately as her husband watched — with a raised eyebrow.
The woman shut up and quietly sat down as though in a daze. The therapist turned to the husband and said, “This is what your wife needs at least 3 times a week. Can you do this?”
“Well, I can drop her off here on Mondays and Wednesdays, but on Fridays, I fish.
It’s not snowing in Maine
But it is cold. Someone sometime will go for a walk with me and we’ll solve the world’s problems.
Meantime, stay well and stay nimble. Don’t be ashamed to sell something that promptly goes up. Been there, done that. I sold Netflix, which hasn’t gone anywhere in a long time. I bet it will bounce today. No pleasure in berating myself because I’m stupid. — Harry Newton
