This was last week’s headline:
That was good advice because today our tech stocks rose magnificently.
Our biggest gainers, by percentage, were AVXL (16.6%), ETSY (7.36%), RBLX (6.94%), BYND (5.20%), TTD (5.09%), NVDA (4.63), ZM (4.4%) and FB (4.18%).
There’s a reason for NVDA’s rise — its increasing shot at buying ARM. But, for the others, I’m lost.
I know everything tech is overpriced. But I’m going with disruptors that seem to make business sense, are growing fast and are achieving a modicum of buzz. It’s not value investing. And it doesn’t work every day. But it’s been working for the last 15 months.
As an example, look at the last two years of PayPal, MasterCard and Visa:
PayPal is the disruptor. PayPal is one of my bigger positions. I have a tiny holding in MA. I’m dumping it tomorrow.
This stuff is weird.
Here’s a weird chart — two-years of Dominoes, Chipotle, Apple and Amazon. It shows Apple blowing them all away.
But – if you chart these same four companies over the past 10 years, you get a different result. Dominoes blows them all away:
A big part of success in stockmarkets today seems to be follow the buzz, always asking yourself, “Does the buzz make sense?”
An example: Boeing gets a lot of positive buzz, especially from Cramer. But ever since the 737 Max fiasco I’ve been fearful and kept away. Now there are new real concerns — this time about the 777X. Click here. My friend Fred wrote me:
Engineers and aviators used to run this company .
Now it’s accountants and marketing geniuses who only care about their stock options.
A few more screwups like this (the 777X) and the government will have to nationalize the company.
I’d like to buy a portfolio and stick with it. But things change too quickly.
At one stage I had a big parcel of Alibaba. But I look at what Xi is doing in China — and I realize that it’s not a place I want to have any of my money invested in. Sad.
Perhaps it’s time to learn more about bitcoin or Ethereum or Doggycoin? (I know I mispelled it. Deliberately so.)
One of the leading tech newsletter writers, Fred Hickey, is recommending gold, not tech.
Look at gold — the blue line at the bottom — compared to Apple and Amazon over the last five years.
In recent days, I ‘ve bought more NVDA, AVXL and PYPL and started small positions in PLTR and UPST. We’ll see.
Frankly, I’d rather be playing tennis than writing this blog at 11 PM in the middle of the night. But I’ve hurt my shoulder… I keep looking for the magic bullet to picking stocks and fixing my shoulder. I think ice may work on the shoulder.
What grandparents do
They pay their grandkids school fees. If paid directly to the school, this does not create a gift tax liability to the kids.
And since the grandparents pay the school fees with after tax dollars, there’s no tax benefit to them, either.
But the good news is that the kids are grateful and the grandkids are oblivious.
Education — pricey or cheap — is the ultimate gamble.
I have a dear friend who has two daughters. One believes in helping the needy. The other doesn’t.
Wimbledon is on ESPN, ESPN2 and YouTubeTV
Federer plays at 9:45 AM EST tomorrow — that’s Tuesday. I’m guessing it will be on ESPN. It will also be repeated endlessly on The Tennis Channel.
Favorite recent cartoons
Latest favorite New Yorker cartoon
Susan is off taking care of the Western grandchildren. She is in Portland, Oregon where it’s as hot as Death Valley and much hotter than Las Vegas.
Soon the fires will start. The smoke and heat will give misery a whole new meaning.
Early earnings reports from Nike, FedEx, and others are very strong. They portend very positive earnings when they start flowing in about a few days. Wednesday is the end of this strange, wonderful quarter.
“The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that it has never tried to contact us.” – Bill Watterson
See you Wednesday, or so. — Harry Newton
