Inflation and rising interest rates are re-drawing the economic landscape.
It’s killing small businesses, like my local breakfast café and pausing many real estate deals as buyers and sellers figure what they can live with. For some of my friends, it’s the best of times as their competitors are on “pause.” For others, there’s nothing wrong with my favorite bank.
In short, follow Todd Kingsley’s sage advice: “If in doubt, stay out.”
Are we having a recession? The “classic” recession is two negative GDP quarters. There’s also a big government agency called National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially declares recessions. It defines recessions any way it pleases — a la Alice in Wonderland. I don’t make this up.
Everyone and their uncle (and me) is looking for the bottom so they can confidently buy stocks.
BubbleVision is seeking guests who’ll say the bottom is near. That’s great for ratings, to sell ads.
They failed with a fellow called Eric Johnston from Cantor Fitzgerald who argued that we are facing another leg down… and that the last few up days were a normal bear market rally. For part of his convincing interview, click here.
My problem is that logic has failed me:
+ If we’re all getting vaccinated, buy vaccine makers like Moderna and Pfizer.
+ If we’re all working 3 days a week from home, buy Zoom.
+ If oil is high, buy the oil stocks.. If the market is switching from momentum to value, then buy low P/E stocks.
When I eye the scroll on CNBC I see Tesla (P/E 99.2) rising strongly.
With confusion reigning in my tiny brain, I bought some more one-year treasuries and handful of erstwhile favorites — Apple, Amazon and Nvidia. Apple is up a little. The others are down. Catching falling knives or picking the bottom are two “strategies” I’m not good at. Is anyone?
My big holding is Vanguard technology ETF called VGT which is down 27% from its high in December last year. Holding VGT was probably idiotic. But, I sold everything else and hence was virtuous. Or something.
Looking for inspiration?
Henry Kissinger is 99 and has just published his latest book:
His previous one (also written when he was over 90 and a favorite book of mine) was
I’m not a sucker
I’m sick of being played for one. Every day I get fake phone calls:
“This is PayPal with your iPhone 13 pro order. If you didn’t place the order please press one.”
I get fake invoices from The Geek Squad, and sundry software companies:
They’re getting pretty gutsy. Look at this one:
Nice artwork. But obviously a crook.
Look at the sender’s email address. If it looks fishy, it is.
I know if I respond to any of these, that will be the end of my peaceful life.
Tech tips
+ This is the top hinge on my office door. It wasn’t closing properly.
I unscrewed the three left screws which were loose. I inserted a toothpick coated with wood glue into the screw hole. Then I screwed the screws back in. Bingo, the door now closes perfectly. What a genius.
+ Hot showers make you itch. My dermatologist says moisturize every day. She’s right. I look less like an alligator.
+ The best investment I ever made was implants. They’ve held up beautifully over many many years.
+ Banks and brokers are forever sending me codes to authorize my laptop. Sometimes it doesn’t work. Then I have to go into settings on Chrome and knock out all the cookies associated with that bank or broker.
My Covid “update”
Two days after my birthday party, I tested positive. Then I took Paxlovid for five days. Then I tested negative. Three days later I tested positive. I did nothing, except complain. Then four days later I tested negative. Which is where I am today. I’m still negative. My energy has returned. And I’ve bene playing tennis.
Being negative means I am allowed to be with the grandkids — outside. No hugging. No affection. Just telling bad grandfather jokes:
+ How many people in the cemetery are dead? Answer: All of them.
+ Why do they have fences around cemeteries? Answer: Because is dying to get in.
It’s not uncommon to test positive for three or four days after taking Paxlovid (which Fauci also took). He took a second dose. I didn’t.
The only things I’ve learned about covid:
+ Everyone will get it eventually. Making sure you’re fully vaccined and twice boostered. That will make your recovery faster.
+ Long covid lasts no more than 15 months — because that’s the longest study anyone has done. Go figure. They’re touting that as “science.”
Gossip
Elon now has nine kids. In May, Elon shared a chart on Twitter showing that the U.S. birth rate “has been below min sustainable levels for ~50 years,” adding, “Past two years have been a demographic disaster. I mean, I’m doing my part haha.”
Favorite recent New Yorker cartoons
I just learned that the 2.95% interest I’ve been earning on one-year treasuries is apparently better than what 98% of mutual funds did in the last 12 months. As I write this blog, I note that I can now earn 3.06% on a one-year treasury, Which is much more peaceful than gambling with tech stocks, whose valuations are still out of whack. Maybe Eric Johnston is right? Watch his short interview above.
See you later this weekend. — Harry Newton
