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If you hold shares, you will lose money. You want a recession. You got it.

if you hold shares you will lose money.

That has become increasingly evident to me as we hurtle towards a recession.

I’ve been reading and reading. All the gurus are predicting a hard time. A bunch of companies — from FedEx to Walmart, from Ford to Scotts Miracle Grow and Adobe — have reported really yuchy results/forward guidance.

The “biggest” guru is the head of the Norway’s sovereign wealth fund. Here are two of his quotes from Saturday’s New York Times:

+ “If you asked me a year ago, `What is the worst scenario for financial markets?’ I think things are now worse than anything we could have imagined,” said Nicolai Tangen, the head of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest of its kind. The fund manages money generated by Norway’s extensive oil and gas sales and has $1.4 trillion invested around the world.

+ Mr. Tangen, of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, said that he did not think there was an investment area anywhere in the world likely to make money in the near future. “That’s the really depressing thing,” he said.

I had meant to write a long piece explaining all my thoughts. China. Europe. Russia.

But it’s getting worse and worse. Look at today’s Nasdaq:

I’ve sold all my individual shares and only hold VGT and VTI. But they’re losing also. For now, I’ve gone short. I’d give you my list. But I doesn’t matter. I have 43 shares on my Watch List — from Generac to Cleveland Cliffs, from Novavax to Home Depot… They’re all down today.

That’s it. Tomorrow. I’ll write more on the gruesome realities of our miserable stockmarket.

Meantime, pick up some treasuries. One year treasuries are paying over 4%. That’s more than you’re going to earn in the next year with shares. Unless you’re a brilliant stock picker. Which I’m not.

The old Native American and the $500 loan

An old Native American man has a need to borrow $500, so he goes to his local bank and asks to speak with the Loan Officer.

The banker welcomes him and then says a loan application form must be completed. So he takes a loan application form from his desk drawer and begins to question the old man.

“So, what are you going to do with the money?” he asks the man.

“Buy silver, make jewelry, then sell it,” the man responded.

“And what have you got for collateral?” asked the banker.

“Don’t know collateral,” replied the old man

“Well that’s something of value that you provide us with to cover the cost of the loan if you fail to repay,” said the banker. “For instance, have you got any vehicles?”

“Yes. 1979 Chevy pickup,” replied the old man

The banker shook his head, “No that won’t do, I’m afraid. How about livestock?”

“Yes, I have a horse,” replied the old man.

“How old is it?” the banker enquired.

“Don’t know, has no teeth,” replies the old man.

The conversation went on like this for a while but eventually, the banker decides to grant the $500 loan to the old man.

Several weeks later the old man returns to the bank.

He pulls out a large roll of $100 bills from his pocket, “Here to pay,” he says.

He then hands the banker $500 in $100 bills to repay his loan.

“Business has been good I can see,” says the banker. “What are you going to do with the rest of that money?”

“Keep it close to me,” the old man responded.

“Why don’t you just deposit it in my bank,” the banker enquired.

“Don’t know deposit,” replied the old man

“Well, you just put the money in our bank and we take care of it for you. Whenever you want to use it, you can withdraw it,” the banker responded.

The old Native American man leans across the desk and looks the banker in the eye and asks, “What you got for collateral?”

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I’ll be back tomorrow. Promise. — Harry Newton