It’s dumb. But we have a little tech boom going on — lead by all the stocks I’ve mentioned in recent days, and especially Netflix today.
Today’s one per cent tech stock rise may be due to relief that our banks — especially the big ones — are both boring and safe. It may also be due to the fact that everyone believes Nvidia is the prime beneficiary –and then some — of the generative AI revolution. That’s the ChatGPT thing that’s going to make the world a happier, wealthier, safer place.
It’s not, of course. But this new AI thing continues the computing revolution that has brought us everything from the Internet to better shoe design tools, from Windows to the “helpful” word completions on our iPhone.
I read that some doctors fed it some patient symptoms and, within seconds, the software had identified the problem and what was necessary to be done. Which — miraculously — agreed 100% with what the doctors themselves had figured. They were astounded. I hope someone puts this tool on the Internet. Had I had it, it would have correctly identified my problems as gallbladder and saved me (and the family) a lot of angst. (My wife, daughter and son apparently wanted me to live and spent a huge amount of time — and money — figuring ways to keep me alive — for which I’m still not fully appreciative.)
So, buy some Nvidia.
A “Do Not Invest” list makes sense
Investing only works when you have real knowledge and the force (i.e, momentum) is with you.
When you don’t understand, Todd’s motto stands, “When in doubt, stay out.“
It’s a good idea to have rules of stocks not to invest in.
For example, once China’s Xi got crazy with tech success, I said “No Chinese stocks.”
You also got to have some “logic.”
A couple of days ago, the New York Times wrote:
Since January, the price of lithium has dropped nearly 20 percent, according to Benchmark Minerals, even as sales of electric vehicles have soared. Cobalt, another important battery material, has fallen by more than half. Copper, essential to electric motors and batteries, has slipped about 18 percent, even though U.S. mines and copper-rich countries like Peru are struggling to increase production.
Now you need to know why I don’t invest in mining stocks:
It’s actually quite simple:
+ When the price goes up, they open new mines/oil wells and produce more.
+ With so much stuff around, the price drops. (Supply and demand and all that.)
+ Then they close the mines (or the oil fields/oil rigs) and the price goes up.
So repeats an endless cycle that only nimble, smart investors can make money in.
I’m neither nimble nor smart enough. Hence it’s better for me to stay out.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which I’m not in, rose 3.33% today, up 70.04% this year.
When you make lists of “No Go” investments, like bitcoin. You have to swallow your pride.
My favorite place — Ubud Bali
When I was 24, I did the ritual overland Australia-to-England trip that every red-blooded Aussie did. I still remember the many spectacular places we visited. But the one I remember the most is Bali, Indonesia. There in the volcanic highlands, I met a painter called Blanco. He lived in a house on top of terraced rice fields attended by four bare-breasted Balinese women.
I don’t remember his house, except it was open on all sides and took in the magnificent views. You could hear the water moving down the terraces. Close my eyes. I can still hear that sound today — 57 years later.
Bali popped up in my brain when the travel magazine AFAR sent me this photo of a hotel just outside Ubud.
Blanco is now dead. But he left a museum filled with his paintings of Balinese women. Beautiful women. Lousy paintings. His 1966 house never looked like this. But the museum now allegedly does.
At the time, the Big Man of Indonesia was Sukarno. He united the country. There are 3,000 or so islands. He gave it a beautiful language called Bahasa Indonesia. Easy to learn. Easy to speak. The plural of anything is to say it twice.
Indonesia was entering the world of modern commerce. One day Sukarno visited Bali’s capital Denpasar in his private plane. To greet him, a honor guard of a hundred Balinese women dressed in sarongs stood in a line on the tarmac.
As his plane door opened, someone realized that 200 bare breasts was not the correct image of modernity to convey to their esteemed President. They ordered the women to lift the sarongs and cover their breasts. This they did, only to reveal their nakedness from the bellybutton down.
It was sight for the history books. Sadly, I wasn’t there. And I don’t have a photo.
I can imagine Sukarno enjoying the sight. He was a ladies man.
Ah, the good old days!
See you soon. — Harry Newton
